VS

Vibe trading enthusiast

[VS @VS8974]

@DsrPrivate Enjoy!

[VS @VS8974]

@DsrPrivate Thank you 🙏🏻

[VS @VS8974]

@DsrPrivate *now

[VS @VS8974]

@DsrPrivate Just trying to figure out if SPY having 0.67% worse performance rhan spx for the day is 1) normal and 2) no permanently baked into the returns

[VS @VS8974]

@DsrPrivate SPX (according to trading view) closed down 0.05% today, and SPY closed down 0.72%, assuming this is because of the fat finger you mention? Does this imply that SPY will correct the large tracking error on Monday?

[VS @VS8974]

@ApexMetal @Merridew__ Nukes are not a guarantee from being attacked, exhibit A being Israel and US bases being missiled by Iran

[VS @VS8974]

@Ezrathenoticer @ConceptualJames What would Jesus reply to this tweet if he saw it?

[VS @VS8974]

@johnkonrad We can call it the French Channel after the French win at least one naval battle in it

[VS @VS8974]

@MacrostratPB Does oil flowing for two weeks during a ceasefire (as proposed by the Pakistanis) count?

[VS @VS8974]

@BlueDuckCap @rev_cap Amen

[VS @VS8974]

@DeepDishEnjoyer How much capital would it even take to manipulate the sp500?

[VS @VS8974]

@manchaary12 @DeepDishEnjoyer Looks like it just might be 😉

[VS @VS8974]

Take a Chinese ally off the chessboard, with Venezuela and Iran gone, China only has NK and Russia left. And in a confrontation with China, neither of those can cause trouble in economically sensitive areas of the globe (where China itself wouldn’t already be causing trouble). That would be my guess

[VS @VS8974]

@BenKizemchuk I see, I understood that you were saying that the full $100k was subtracted as an import. But we agree that the import subtraction is 25k in this example. Why does msft’s purchase of the rack from nvda not count towards the investment part of gdp though?

[VS @VS8974]

Also how would your way work if let’s say nvda was buying a new gen chip they designed from tsmc, unannounced, no customers yet, and nvda hasn’t decided how much they’re going to sell it for. The guys at the BEA calculating the gdp would magically know the final price that nvda would charge and subtract that from gdp?

[VS @VS8974]

Surely the import value would be whatever is on the customs declaration, and nvda would put what it paid (25k) on that and not the full 100k? Also tsmc prints wafers based on nvda ip (the real value add), which is produced in the US If it works the way you’re describing that would mean nvda’s contribution to US gdp has been virtually 0 over the oasr few years, which feels.. implausible

[VS @VS8974]

@BenKizemchuk Pls explain, from my understanding, and i’m not an economist, but lets say msft buys 100k of gpus from NVDA, and nvda pays tsmc 25k to produce them, investment is +100k while imports are -25k for a net gdp impact of 75k?

[VS @VS8974]

@BenKizemchuk Sure, some of the chip spend goes to fabs in Taiwan, but as of last earnings NVDA (to use as an example) had a gross margin of c.73%, so 3/4 of that spend stays in the US. And the accelerating bank credit point still stands

[VS @VS8974]

@BenKizemchuk While KRE is breaking out, which last time i checked is not a signal of impending recession