@tombos21@WSOP P.S. I know its not the correct way to assume for sure that you will be avg stack on day 2. Just doing a what-if here..possibly the best case argument a player with an insane deepstack edge can claim!
@tombos21@WSOP hmm..I was coming from the perspective of someone saying, "hey look, I have a deepstack edge, and if I play from the start and I manage to have an average stack at start of day 2, I would have already negated the ICM boost of regging on day 2"
how much $ EV of day 2 avg stack?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the secret to understanding poker is experimentation.
Most people lose curiosity once they’ve built a framework that seems "good enough". They stop testing assumptions. They stop calibrating. They fall back on using their existing worldview to explain what they see, rather than using what they see to update their worldview.
(This applies to most things btw)
https://t.co/MtvdQo6OT6
14th August 1990
Sunil Gavaskar to Tendulkar -
If at the end of the career he doesn't get 15000 Runs and 40 Test Centuries I shall personally go and strangle him.
15921 Runs.. (921 more)
51 Test 💯.. (11 more )
There is no greater test of a person's resolve than that at the intersection of gambling and competition. If your inner voice has even a whisper of victimhood to it you will be tried, exposed, and served up to those able to persevere.
I never invested in tech or AI boom directly… but you know me… I look at everything from the point of picks and shovels.
Davis Sachs tweeted the below photo… FORD CEO vented his anger when he said that he has 5000 electrician jobs worth six figures but he can’t find them.
Most people still think of “big tech” as software, apps, and social media.
But the real tech story of the next decade is physical:
•data centers
•power grids
•EVs and batteries
•rail, ports, and shipping
•fabs, refineries, and smelters
All of them are:
•capex-heavy
•materials-intensive
•brutally energy‑hungry
That’s where today’s “invisible” bottlenecks sit:
•copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths
•permitting timelines measured in YEARS, not months
•skills and engineering gaps no SaaS tool can instantly solve
The result:
•Margins in pure software are facing gravity.
•Margins in “boring” real assets are quietly improving.
•Nations are competing not on apps downloaded, but on megawatts, tons, and throughput.
Investors obsess over code and clicks.
States obsess over ships, mines, and megawatts.
Over the next cycle, the market will be forced to reprice:
•from virtual scalability to physical constraints
•from financial engineering to engineering, full stop
•from “move fast and break things” to “build slow and last decades”
Software won’t disappear.
But the balance of power is shifting toward those who can marshal:
•energy
•metals
•manufacturing
•logistics at scale
In a world of rising geopolitical risk and resource competition, the real edge is not another app.
It’s owning, building, and controlling the hard assets the digital economy cannot run without.
I am firmly of the view that for US to win this tech and AI race they need to spend more… lot more on physical infrastructure…
Here are key take-aways for investors from the Gensol Engineering Ltd scandal:
1. Don’t get dazzled by growth alone.
Even though Gensol showed strong revenue growth, the underlying cash flows, asset base and debt structure were weak.
2.Check promoter behaviour.
Heavy pledging of promoter shares, sudden reductions in promoter stake or unexplained share sales can signal trouble. Gensol’s pledging was very high.
3. Scrutinise governance & disclosures.
Frequent changes in CFOs, independent directors resigning, large related-party transactions, and lack of transparency were red flags.
4. Watch for aggressive financials and opaque metrics.
Pre-orders without binding contracts, large order announcements that don’t convert, mismatch between assets claimed and real activity. Gensol announced large EV orders but manufacturing seemed minimal.
5. Follow lenders and rating agencies.
A downgrade to rating from credible agencies signals serious distress. Gensol’s rating dropped.
Wow, and so to get to a practical sizing on an earlier street, I would need to pick the trail of that hand or combo across diff sizes and judge, in which line opponents counter strat or response is non-practical or difficult to execute.
Then, remove that hand from those sizes, and by elimination, find the size that works best with my hand.
Jumping lot of topics, but thanks man for the detailed explanation, cheers
thanks! but just to ensure I understood correctly - value hands would love to always go for bigger sizings, and bluffs could always go for smaller but higher freq sizing (such that betting vol across value and bluffs is balanced). But this construct is exploitable, and hence, the solver artificially puts strong (& weak) hands in multiple sizes or lines such that bluffs and value are indistinguishable based on sizing?
@vandit_jain1994 Again, where did I use "Immaturity"?
your process is results oriented. Stock took a beating, you mark your decision in hindsight as correct. It goes up, your decision becomes a regret. I don't believe you are an experienced investor