UPDATE: Northern lights chances continue for this evening into Friday morning for the entire State of Michigan. A series of solar storms known as CMEs are inbound towards earth and are expected to arrive as early as this afternoon. The anticipated strength of the combined solar storms may be powerful enough to push the northern lights deep into the mid latitudes, giving all of Michigan a chance at viewing.
We have a few things for you to consider if you plan to attempt to catch the lights tonight.
1. Aurora does not follow a time schedule. Forecasting is difficult, and we never tell people to lean too heavily on the SWPC time predictions as they are often not correct. It is best forecast in real time as we look at data in front of us. The most heads up we will have is about an hour or so.
2. Given this particular event looks to contain multiple solar storms, there is some amount of uncertainty of how each solar storm is structured. If all of them are aligned properly, this could be an even stronger event. But if they aren't aligned properly, this could be weaker. We won't really know much until we see them arrive at our outer satellites.
3. For those that are new here, we post near constant updates during aurora events, and tonight will be no exception. We have a network of webcams that help track aurora all across Michigan and experienced staff who can read and interpret space weather data. This combination allows us to alert people to viewing opportunities in both an accurate and unique way.
4. Cloud cover. It appears the Upper Peninsula and norther lower Michigan may be socked in with clouds tonight, but southern and central lower may have broken cloud cover to allow for viewing. Cloud forecasts to come at 2pm today.
Attention will turn to our outer space satellites which gives us about an hour of "heads up" prior to arrival. Remember, nothing is guaranteed with aurora and it is best forecast in real time. Stay tuned through the day for updates! We will also be posting a camera guide at 4pm for those who want to learn about how to capture the aurora on a smartphone.
We will keep you up to date!