J

Run my own family office - Twitter for entertainment - Emissary and messenger of markets

[J @WallSt_HERMES]

$SPY $SPX
https://t.co/mOuP0p6ti2

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Aug 28 Replay

Levels posted before the overnight session, giving ON traders a framework and RTH traders time to prepare.

Have a great weekend!

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | August 28

Today’s session saw a breakout from the multi-day balance, filling one of last week’s bear gaps and completing a traverse of last week’s value area in the process.

As always, when the auction attempts to transition from balance to imbalance, our job is to monitor for continuation—or lack thereof.

A strong response would involve reclaiming last week’s VAH at 7746, which aligns closely with today’s VAH. This would indicate buyers are willing to initiate activity above value, supporting the transition into imbalance.

Failure to hold today’s afternoon pullback low at 7724, which closely aligns with the multi-day balance high, would be a cautionary sign.

Smashlevel: 7746

[OptionsDepth @OptionsDepth]

Pin and Flow (8/25/26)

https://t.co/Wi2hWJSP9p

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

THE REPO MARKET IS THE DOG WAGGING THE TAIL: A few thoughts on the incredible post below by my friend @AndreasSteno:

1) I continue to be blown away by the quality of analysis by some of the investors on this platform. While the supply of investing insights has exploded exponentially since COVID, the supply of money-making or money-saving investing insights has and will always remain relatively fixed because there will never be a substitute for “doing the work.” AI helps speed up analysis, but it does not place investors any closer to the vanguard of market-moving information than the Internet, Python, Excel, and HP-12Cs did. All these were simply new tools investors had to master to become minimally proficient at managing financial market risk. AI is no different. At any rate, many consider me to be a financial plumbing expert (e.g., I developed a net liquidity model that is still in broad circulation across global Wall Street)—and I learned something from Andreas’ thought-provoking work. It’s well worth your time to review.

2) Andreas is correct that levered hedge funds have represented a large source of incremental demand for US Treasury securities in recent years. The @IMFNews puts the total value of these relative value trades at $2.5tn, with the cash-futures basis trade accounting for 40% of that total. Our math indicates that we in the private nonbank sector are currently warehousing just shy of 60% of total marketable Treasury risk—up from only 36% in Nov-21. Back then, I was on @RaoulGMI's and @AndreasSteno's platform, @RealVision, with our mutual friend @JackFarley96, warning about the risk of the "schoolyard bully returning with a vengeance to take our lunch money." This was my simplified way of communicating that repo—and global balance sheet capacity broadly—would be increasingly diverted away from capitalizing risk assets to the rapidly growing Treasury market, which itself would struggle amid the fastest rate hikes in decades to the highest policy rate levels in decades. As many of you remember quite painfully, 2022 saw the sharpest correlated decline in stock and bond prices since the 1973-74 secular bear by some measures, or since the Great Depression according to alternate data. Fortunately, 2022 was the fourth of five consecutive cross-asset crashes in which I helped my clients avoid losing lots of money (2011, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025; my career started at the nadir of the GFC).

3) These admittedly complicated financial plumbing dynamics matter A LOT to every person or institution that has serious money invested in global financial markets. The good news is that you don’t have to be a financial plumbing expert or have a team of data scientists to keep track of these esoteric dynamics and what they mean for your portfolio; that’s our job. The @42Macro Weather Model makes it very easy to quickly cut through the noise, track the most important signals, and interpret what they mean for your portfolio and broad market risk. It’s been one of the most popular tools among @42Macro members for years. Why? Because, like KISS and Dr. Mo, it’s actually better than I am at calling markets.

I hope you found these insights helpful. Have a blessed day!
—Skipper 💜

[Sierra Trading @_sierratrading]

The MP and VP sit at an intersection between candlesticks and order flow.

The concepts are rather simple to learn and it doesn’t take too much screen time to build trust.

It’s interesting that finX went from FVGs to OF and skipped over MP.

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | August 18

Today’s session was a great example of auction dynamics: markets transition from balance to imbalance, but when that imbalance fails, price often returns to the prior balance area where value was established—in this case, the HVN at 7774. A double distribution profile was formed in the process, with single prints developing in the H-period.

The key question now is whether the failed breakout will lead to a rotation toward the opposite side of the range and potentially clean up some of the unfinished business below. This scenario remains in play as long as acceptance is not established back within today’s upper distribution.

Smashlevel: 7779

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | August 17

As we’ve discussed, last week’s price action can be separated into two distributions.

Thursday’s breakout and Friday’s inside day mark the upper distribution, while the lower distribution essentially represents the high volume area where most of the volume was traded over the past two weeks.

Value development relative to the low volume node separating the two distributions will be key to monitor in the short term.

Smashlevel: 7814

[Traderstewie @traderstewie]

A Must Watch! $AMD

#23 on @IBDinvestors IBD Top 50 list!

https://t.co/F3yOLMbNaw

Gorgeous multi-week consolidation pattern emerging here in $AMD that's been bobbing and weaving along the 50 day MA following a strong 2026 run up! Printed another PEG candle last week which adds an extra layer of confidence that this will breakout next week!

Target: $600

#IBDpartner

[Adam Set @Adaamset]

08/12 : Tits Levered : 🎈

Long $NQ : 29600 + 29800
Long $ES : 7740 + 7760

🥜 : On the Line, while all else : wishy washy opinion.
There simply isn't anyone as real-time as me.

Swing.

[Sierra Trading @_sierratrading]

Today was a day to code.

I’ve been wanting a cleaner way to consume all the options data I have available.... starting to run out of screen space 😆

This is my first attempt, video below.. 🧵

[J @WallSt_HERMES]

@_sierratrading Signals probably work better in the morning- (No sound but not sure is was intended to have sound)

[Sierra Trading @_sierratrading]

Not sure if anyone else noticed but that 7750 $spx today was quite somethin!

[J @WallSt_HERMES]

@Adaamset 💪🏼

[Adam Set @Adaamset]

SetX now has both Longs in $ES + $NQ : 🎈🎈

[J @WallSt_HERMES]

@Adaamset We’re going 🎈??

[J @WallSt_HERMES]

@Adaamset Unfortunately indeed- needed a deeper correction to be a better structure

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | August 7

After Monday’s and Tuesday’s notable one-sided auctions, the expectation was to transition into a more two-sided trade, which was ultimately today’s outcome. The market continues to clean up Tuesday’s poor structure, with four out of seven single prints now filled.

I’m watching today’s value area in the short term for clues on whether the auction wants to continue cleaning up Tuesday’s poor structure and fill the remaining single prints, or if a 50% retracement of Tuesday’s range will attract buyers. NFP is on deck tomorrow.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7747 (UT1), today’s afternoon rally high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7706 (DT1).

Smashlevel: 7727

[J @WallSt_HERMES]

@Adaamset Where will the buyers defend 💪🏼

[J @WallSt_HERMES]

@OptionsDepth Easy to follow with Adderall 👌🏼

[VolumeLeaders @VolumeLeaders]

$APP - Interesting chart with #6 and #12 arriving today at support. Image 2 shows all top-25 ranked trades since 2025.