@Smart_Money Was Merz hätte machen sollen? Einfach nichts sagen! Das ist grottenschlechte Diplomatie. Niemand kann die Lage im Iran einschätzen, dass was wir an Infos bekommen, ist das was der Iran erlaubt. Wenn Trump doch gewinnt, was dann?
@smart_money Ja klar, aber Fakten sind Fakten und sollten nicht verzerrt werden, um den FUD anzuheizen. Es sind die Altcoins die das anheizen werden, um BTC schlecht zu reden.
@Georg_Pazderski Ein was fehlt noch! Alle sollen etwas bezahlen und beitragen, nur der Staat nicht. Wo spart der Staat? Wo leistet der Staat seinen Beitrag?
@willywoo "Until then BTCUSD will price in this risk". What about pricing in the risk for the whole financial industry? I think BTC is way saver than the rest. And the network will adjust the risk better than anything else. The banks should be scared first, not BTC!
I think Bitcoin is in a bear market...still...we've been in a bear market since 2022.
The bull market for crypto is yet to come!
Why do I think that?
Bitcoin follows the economic cycle, or rather economic growth, and since 2022 we haven't really been in an economic expansion. GDP was positive, but below the historical average. There has been no real expansion. The ISM has remained below 50 since 2022.
The upward swings were merely triggered by events within a non-expansive economy.
Everything positive within the stagnant economy (Trump, pro-crypto administration, ETFs, institutional adoption, etc.) has fizzled out again in the crypto market because we haven't been in a bull market yet.
In stagnant economies, positive crypto news evaporates. That's why the supposed “bull market” didn't feel like one. We had no liquidity, no retail, no FOMO, no altcoin season, etc.
What happened was a misjudgment that we were in a bull market, belief in the 4-year cycle, and the rise of the NASDAQ (which was merely triggered by the AI hype but had nothing to do with a real economic recovery)...
and that ultimately triggered the crash.
Now the ISM is above 50, all signs point to an expanding economy, so I think the bull market is yet to come.
150k-250k in 2026