Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles

Which macro asset class should you be invested in? We rank them from over/undervalued using relative valuations and sound money cycles.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

Macro quiz: How would you rank the following assets from over to under valued?

US median incomes
US home prices
Oil
Stocks
Bonds
Gold
Bitcoin
Altcoins
Cattle
Farmland

This is what we do at Wealth Cycles using 120 years of data. Tradingview doesn't have this data and you will not see the cycles.
Comment, like, share. Answer posted at 300 verified followers.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

I taught high school metals/welding for a few years. I taught about monetary metals with Mike Maloney's videos. We also melted scrap sterling and minted our own silver coins. Not everything can be taught in school. You have to learn some things outside of school, as you have clearly done.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

Everything priced in bitcoin: the 4 year (46-47month) cycle is clear, as well as the power law curve.

You can almost start to pick out which assets or over/undervalued relative to each other just with these charts. Using bitcoin as a measuring tool is much more useful than fiat USD.
More charts below:

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

@benjamincowen I’m surprised to see that sentiment going around and I’m sorry about it. You’re doing great man and don’t let it grind you down.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

It is still possible to see bitcoin retest 66k around October. Not saying it will happen that way but that would certainly kill the ultra bullish sentiment at the moment and still respect the wealth cycles analysis. Even 70k would be a good target.

The 58k low was probably the nominal low but we are still in cycle bottom formation until November.

A final washout in alts and push in bitcoin dominance would represent a last major altcoin accumulation…but will we get it idk.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

@mrmikeMTL Occupied

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

Let us know where you live and what the housing market sentiment is:

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

The crypto newsfeed has gone into extreme greed just as the fear/greed index says. We are not in a bull market yet, but are forming a bottom. So it is still possible to get a nasty downside move, or a long consolidation, upon which I will be personally loading up on alts. The idea is conservation of energy around the long term cycle (dotted line), and trading around imbalances.

This chart removes liquidity as a factor, which is a big factor, but shows we are still basing.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

@EmuConspiracy Yes, employment

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

This is the heart of what we do: a 10k foot view of macro investing using relative valuations and sound money cycles (BTC 4 yr, gold 40yr)

Our data goes back twice as far as TradingView shows and offers a perspective most don’t have.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

@joshistrading

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

@darrelltalksfi Great plan for sure if you have that luxury.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

This ignores the ~4 year cycle. The previous cycle peak in 2025 was squashed by a liquidity crunch, but that only warps, not negates the cycle. I do think your price target is possible, but during the next peak around Jan '29.

For almost the entirety of crypto, the btc and liquidity cycles were in harmony, increasing the amplitude of its price swings. Now they are not and it will throw everybody for a loop.

I think we'll see some weakness in some form over the next few months before taking off again, but this move does confirm a cycle bottom forming.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

The big bounce in bitcoin confirms the cycle bottom, but is overextending itself. I suspect we'll see a month or two of sideways/down action before really taking off in the cycle.

Probably a good time to transition from btc to smaller cap cryptos. Alts have gone basically sideways for 5 years, which is an eternity in crypto.

Remember that altseason is most strongly correlated to federal reserve QE/QT and the balance sheet is starting upward. That's why we expect alts to outperform btc for a couple years.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

For a much wider perspective check out this chart. Your two data points are at opposite ends of the cycle extremes.

When you use gold as money to measure prices instead of fiat, a 40 year cycle becomes clear measured against other real assets. Gold’s peaked and the cycle trough is ~2038.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

The only cycle that exists in commodities is the one in Gold, which is a crystal clear near perfect 40 year cycle which I've discovered. Your chart shows a composite of commodities with inconsistent wavelengths.

When you use gold as money to measure prices instead of fiat, a 40 year cycle becomes clear. Gold’s peaked and the cycle trough is ~2038.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

-Bitcoin cycle just turning up
-Altseason cycle just turning up
-Liquidity metric still in mid range with low likelihood of a major contraction until next fall at the very soonest.

The next 12+ months will be very large for altcoins, and specifically this entire crypto cycle.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

And it has now exceeded my target significantly. A retest of 67k seems less likely now

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

Bitcoin divided the liquidity tightness metric rallied into my target.

The liquidity metric is unlikely to contract until about 12 months from now at the soonest, so the risk of a liquidity crunch is very low. Until then it should remain relatively stable.

The point is:
-The rally could reasonably peter out and dilly dally here for a while.
-Bitcoin should have a fairly well-behaved cycle bottom.
-The bottom is very likely in at 60k
-A 67k retest would be reasonable by fall, and a good last-minute buy in opportunity.

[Wes-tone's Wealth Cycles @Wealth_Cycle]

Excellent time to trade your gold for bitcoin. Probably for the next 15 years.

Gold is at the near exact peak of its 40yr cycle and bitcoin is at the exact bottom of its 4yr cycle.