Weiye Xi

Decision Risk and Operations PhD student at Columbia University

[Weiye Xi @Weiye_Xi]

Excited to share our new paper with @malleshpai @ciamac @Qiaoqiao2001 !

Two prediction markets can have the same price, yet very different uncertainty about where that price may move next. We develop a structural approach to quantifying and forecasting that uncertainty.

The paper is now on arXiv and I also built an interactive explorer where you can search across Kalshi markets and trace how the fitted uncertainty bands evolve over time: https://t.co/tIRiYjxLRY

[Mallesh Pai @malleshpai]

🚨New Paper with @Weiye_Xi , @ciamac and @Qiaoqiao2001

Here’s two different prediction markets priced at ~6.5%:
1. Will the US confirm the existence of Aliens in 2026?
2. *that* Spurs @ Knicks Game 4, ~4th quarter.

They suggest that both these events are the same probability, but intuitively these feel very different: the latter (Knicks won!) feels a lot more uncertain. But prediction markets don’t immediately give us a way to quantify it.