Willard Wilson

WIAC born

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds There’s no rule for what determines ROTY. Personally I think the most valuable/productive rookie should win.

Which when you add everything up it comes to Benge or Wetherholt

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds I think everything added together, Wetherholt and Benge were more valuable in the field. If you weren’t a Reds fan I think you’d agree

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds Yes he would😭 you’re just a biased Reds fan. There’s a reason he led all rookies in bWAR and Stewart wasn’t top 200 in the league.

A .780 OPS mid defense 1B is easier to replace than an above average hitting 2B that’s 95th+ percentile in defense and baserunning

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds No I’m saying it’s an apples to oranges comparison. Because Wetherholt played in a harder offensive era than them as well

comparing soft hitting OFs to a rookie 2B who hit above average this year while being 99th percentile defense and 95th percentile baserunning is wrong.

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds Nope I would’ve voted him 4th I think

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds Still a launching pad

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds Career high OPS

Billy Hamilton: .664
Endy Chavez: 1 outlier .779, otherwise .688
Willy Tavares: .672
JJ Wetherholt: .704

Average OF OPS: .719
Average 2B OPS: .696

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds Also I don’t even think JJ should’ve won. Benge should’ve

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds You say that but you’re looking at the offense. Wetherholt elite defense and baserunning.

There’s a reason a rookie w 30 HR/100 RBI hasn’t had an OPS this low since Ron Kittle.

I’d expect a big hitter to have an OPS above .800 in baseballs easiest stadium

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@KnowledgeDumper @AltuveDaGOAT27 @TomCasamigos Low IQ response, every WR in the HOF has a 1st team all pro. Keenan is t that close considering his age. You can keep crying since it obviously affects you enough

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@tlschwerz Hilarious

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@ObscureExReds Yes I did mean September.

Stewart had 2 months with higher than an .800 OPS. He had 3 months of below average OPS for a 1B

Wetherholt also had 2 months of above average 2B OPS, 3 below. Just like Stewart

JJ being the leagues 2nd best defender and top 10 BR closes the gap

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@MinnesotaAfic @vikingzfanpage Probably a big film day getting Kirk situated

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@KnowledgeDumper @AltuveDaGOAT27 @TomCasamigos You can be upset about it all you want but he’s not going to be in the HOF let alone a 1st ballot

You’re literally a Chargers fan, the most biased you could possibly be

[Brenden Schaeffer🎳 @bschaeffer12]

As a BBWAA member, I had a vote for NL Rookie of the Year.

My ballot looked like this:

Wetherholt
Rumfield
Benge
McLean
Stewart

I didn't know before the results were unveiled last night how others voted. I didn't know I would actually be the lowest voter on Sal Stewart, the only person to place him 5th on their ballot.

I've gotten some flak from disgruntled Reds fans about where I placed the eventual winner of the award. I wanted to outline some of my thought process.

I had a Rookie of the Year vote once previously, when Corbin Carroll won it. Making out a ballot that year felt a lot more straightforward compared to this loaded list of worthy rookies.

Wetherholt led all NL rookies in Wins Above Replacement and was one of the top 20 players in WAR in the NL, not just among rookies.

He was the best defensive player in the sport aside from PCA. His defensive metrics seemed to back this up, though he didn't win the Gold Glove at 2B (and no, I didn't have a vote in that).

In addition to the superlative defense, he remained an above league-average contributor offensively, particularly in his role. Wetherholt led NL rookies in runs scored, which seemed to me to be a similar valuation to the way Reds supporters view Stewart, who led rookies in RBIs.

For a leadoff man, runs scored is the goal. For someone in Stewart's position in the lineup, the goal is driving in the runs. Both thrived at their objective. I, clearly, put weight into JJ's defensive value vs. where Sal didn't carry value on that side of the ball.

Carson Benge was a blend of strong offensive numbers with plus defense in the outfield. Probably the most well-rounded rookie, but perhaps without any standout characteristic to push up to the top of the ballot.

The order of the top three was a real challenge that I wrestled with. Benge drew the second-most 1st place votes and I can't argue with the logic behind those selections. Benge had 4.3 WAR, only narrowly behind Wetherholt (4.6), but admittedly ahead of Rumfield, who was only 2.6 per FanGraphs but 3.5 per Baseball Reference.

But the more I looked into TJ Rumfield's season, the more I was impressed. Did you realize he led the National League in OBP this season? Not just among rookies -- he led the entire NL.

Additionally, the Coors Field bump wasn't responsible for his standout offensive season. He had a better OBP on the road. His OPS was easily above every other name on my ballot.

Nolan McLean came next on my ballot. I struggled figuring out exactly where to draw the lines and place the only pitcher on my ballot. His numbers were really strong, and it's an age-old question how to weigh position players against pitchers in this award race. Logan Henderson merited consideration, too, but with only five spots on the ballot, he fell victim to the workload conversation. He didn't reach 100 big-league innings, as he spent a stint in AAA during the season.

Sal Stewart, of course, was worthy of the ballot. And truthfully, I wouldn't have had a huge issue with any of the five names I chose ultimately winning. Stewart's 30-100 season obviously won over enough of the voters for him to be selected as the winner.

But of the five players on my ballot, he was lowest in WAR (2.0) by a considerable margin. He contributed power and RBIs that exceeded the other candidates, but ultimately, landed fifth on my ballot due to some of the rate stats and other underlying numbers that pushed other candidates above him, for me.

At the end of the day, Sal Stewart is a deserving winner of the award and I enjoyed the process of putting together what ended up being an especially challenging ballot.

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@MMGLaro The hitting gap wasn’t far enough apart to justify Stewart winning. Benge and Wetherholt were the better players

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@MMGLaro Wetherholt was the far superior defender and baserunner

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@Bryan17761 @JacobBSpeaks Also among players w/ 30 HR and 100 RBI as a rookie, Stewart is tied w/ Ron Kittle for the worst OPS

[Willard Wilson @WIAC_Willard]

@Bryan17761 @JacobBSpeaks I’m saying because Votto is a former Reds player, imo if someone else said it it means more.

He had a sub .800 OPS as a 1B at GABP. He got lucky that he was towards the top of the league in ABs w/ RISP