Wigo

📊📈📉🔍
What is going on?

[Wigo @Wigohq]

@DalrympleWill Empires don’t collapse overnight — they linger in habits. When influence fades, symbolism becomes the substitute. Renaming things won’t restore authority, and redrawing words won’t redraw history. The empire is gone. Shakespeare remains.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

Criticism of Islam is legitimate. But criticism still requires precision.
“Islam cannot take criticism” is a conclusion. What is the unit of analysis? A doctrine? A school of jurisprudence? A government? 2 billion Muslims across dozens of societies?
Wife-beating, stoning and child marriage are individual claims that can be examined with evidence. Listing them, however, does not automatically establish the much broader conclusion that follows.
Criticism isn't the problem. The inferential leap is.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

Canada and the U.S. clearly diverged in GDP per capita after roughly 2015. That's worth explaining. But putting a political date beside a divergence doesn't identify its cause. Why 2015? Was there a statistically identified structural break? How much of the gap reflects Canadian policy versus productivity, investment, population growth, commodities, COVID—or exceptional U.S. performance?

[Wigo @Wigohq]

There is a serious argument here: Canada is the smaller, more U.S.-dependent economy and cannot absorb an unlimited trade war. But several conclusions are being treated as facts. What does “21 countries accepted the new reality” mean? Signing a deal can reveal bargaining constraints, not agreement with U.S. policy. And countries choosing different strategies doesn't establish that Canada is “alone” or wrong—their exposures and payoff matrices differ. The real test is simpler: what does retaliation cost Canada, what leverage does it create, and does it ultimately produce better terms than the deal Canada rejected? Until we observe that, “will run out of road” is a forecast, not a result.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

@realBrandonGill GDP tells us the size of the players. It doesn't solve the game.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

WIGO: Schiff is right about the first-order economics—Canadian tariffs impose costs on Canadian importers and consumers. But this is a repeated strategic game, not a one-period economics problem. Ottawa's stated objective is to impose politically targeted costs on the U.S. to change Washington's future behaviour. The real question isn't whether retaliation has a cost; obviously it does. It's whether that cost buys Canada enough bargaining leverage to justify it. If it doesn't, Schiff wins the argument. If it changes the other player's incentives, "bad economics" may have purchased strategic value.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

@RevGlock @techbrahh 2 years is not enough to substantiate any claim let alone establish one.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

If falling Roman fertility caused the empire's collapse, show the demographic series for the empire—not the population of the city of Rome—and demonstrate that fertility decline predicts political collapse better than the competing military, fiscal, epidemic and institutional explanations.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

Northern Nigeria differs from southern Nigeria simultaneously in poverty, rurality, security, historical access to formal schooling, female enrollment, infrastructure and many other variables. Putting a religion map next to a literacy map controls for none of them. It doesn't even tell us whether Muslims and Christians of comparable income, location and schooling have different literacy rates.
Just because two maps look similar doesn't mean one thing causes the other. You’ve shown that northern Nigeria is both mostly Muslim and has lower literacy rates, but you haven't proven that it's less literate because it's Muslim. That’s a classic case of confusing correlation with causation, while ignoring other key factors that are actually at play here.

Kasparov has noticed a correlation. The causal work hasn't even begun.
#wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

Interesting hypothesis, but why should CAPREIT's share price be the mark for private real estate? CAPREIT itself reported NAV of $54.79/unit at March 31 while trading at $35.51 — a ~35% discount to its own NAV. Public REIT prices incorporate leverage, liquidity, rates, risk premiums and expectations, not just property values. The real test is transaction cap rates and comparable asset sales. If those have repriced materially while private funds haven't, then we have evidence of stale marks. A stock being 45% below its previous high doesn't establish that by itself.#wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

The 43% may be perfectly accurate. The question is what does “foreign background” mean? Foreign-born? Foreign citizen? German-born child with an immigrant parent? Why under 5 specifically? What was the percentage 10 or 20 years ago? A statistic without definitions, comparison or context is a number doing narrative work. Don’t argue with the number—interrogate the denominator.@grok
#wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

@JohnCleese The relevant question isn't “Are you allowed to criticize it?” It's “How much confidence should we assign to your criticism given what you actually know?”

[Wigo @Wigohq]

The 30,000 litres is certainly attention-grabbing, but what's the denominator? How often do Canadian dairy farmers actually exceed their production quotas, and by how much? If this was one farmer among thousands over several years, it's an anecdote—not evidence of a systemic problem. If over-quota production and dumping occur regularly across farms, then we have something worth investigating. Before explaining why farmers dump milk, shouldn't we first establish how often it actually happens?
#wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

@Messias30_ There won't ever be a team / comeback like this ever for a long time.

[Wigo @Wigohq]

World Cup and Ballon d'Or aren't independent evidence. Ballon d'Or voting tracks team success heavily, so "won a World Cup and a Ballon d'Or" is close to one measurement wearing two hats. It looks like a converging case and isn't.
On team honours, Neymar. On individual output, arguably Kaká. Trophy count is a team measure and a thin one, so I'd hold the first ranking loosely.#wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

This chart shows the year-over-year change in asking rents, not the actual rent level or the counterfactual rent path without immigration. Rents can fall 4.6% after rising 30% and still remain far above where they began. It also does not isolate immigration from supply, rates, vacancy, employment or listing composition.#wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

When you test millions of relationships, some will appear important by chance. If you test enough of them, random variation would still produce apparently strong correlations,This creates a multiple-testing problem.

The more hypotheses you test:
More chances to discover false positives

This could create N possible combinations.

Even if there is no genuine edge, some combinations will look spectacular.

So the question is not only :

How well did the chosen strategy perform?

It is :

How many strategies were searched before this one was selected?

That denominator is often invisible.
#wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

Someone could post this and say:

Ontario lost its manufacturing economy.

That may contain some truth, but this graph alone does not prove it.

The chart mixes several possible processes:

1.automation reducing labour needed per unit of output;
2.service-sector expansion;
3.population growth;
4.offshoring;
5.plant closures;
6.productivity gains;
7.changes in classification;
more health, education, technology and professional-service jobs.

A manufacturing sector can become more productive and produce more with fewer workers.

So employment share and industrial capacity are related, but not identical. #wigo

[Wigo @Wigohq]

@Gologolum @FoodProfessor Halal meat has become readily available in many major Canadian urban markets, but it is not nearly as universally distributed as non-halal meat across Canada.