Will Brambley

Behavioural economist @OpenUniversity Centre for the Public Understanding of Finance, ex-financial regulator, cancer survivor, chocolatier, & dad to 3yo & 3mo

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@Stuart1090 @f1person @MercedesAMGF1 FYI The sentence before the one quoted does say "all competitors". Moreover, "any [that meet a condition]... will be required to..." does mean all who meet that condition, e.g. 'anyone testing positive will be required to isolate'. Though main issue is "end of the following lap".

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@McnabGareth @UoBCHASM @OUBSchool @TPInvestor @TruePotential_ There are - here's the Financial Capability Evidence Hub page, which links to the full report: https://t.co/8wzqzLK53e. We're doing additional analysis on some of the data for academic publication, but this has the main results.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@dan_grey @dirk1978 @BestForBritain But in general I agree with your point. I wouldn't call it an absolute joke without seeing the data though.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@dan_grey @dirk1978 @BestForBritain I don't think it makes it totally meaningless, but I agree we shouldn't jump to see it as fact before they share the details. Which I believe they are doing.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@TKispeter @BestForBritain @AlexBathurst @Mister_Ben_ @pimlicat @OwenJones84 I realise, my point was that focal data didn't do the polling. Those who did are members of the BPC, I believe.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@dan_grey @dirk1978 @BestForBritain My reserving judgment but, knowing the broad methodology is sound, being inclined to agree whole waiting for the details, is uncritical? What can we be critical of until they release the data?

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@dfitzgerald90 @LeoBuggers @pimlicat @sturdyAlex @OwenJones84 @BestForBritain Guessing their model is suggesting LD & Lab both have virtually no hope in that seat. Few voters switch Con->Lab, difference too great, so may be easier for LDs to gain 50% than Lab to gain being 22%. Both being incredibly unlikely means it matters little though.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@TKispeter @BestForBritain @AlexBathurst @Mister_Ben_ @pimlicat @OwenJones84 That's why they collected data from pollsters, which they analysed using more complex methods than pollsters commonly would. Seems entirely reasonable to me.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@mrflaneur @Michael57930798 @ElectCalculus @BestForBritain No we didn't. We had a ref on AV, never one on PR. Also, tend to have to wait until it's history to see what the "wrong" side is - could all go well, could go horribly wrong.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@dan_grey @dirk1978 @BestForBritain It's incredibly unlikely LDs or Lab win Bromsgrove. @BestForBritain's recommendation implies their analysis gives LDs a higher likelihood than Lab. I haven't seen the data so have no strong view, but I'm inclined to believe MRP analysis over my (or anyone's) blind guess.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@cheianov @ArttuRajantie @BestForBritain Though the uncertainty means tolerance for the constraint matters - how willing are we to risk a Johnson win in order to maximise pro-EU seats? Usually constrained optimisation pushes on the constraint, & we need to be v careful to leave leeway in case of Tory outperformance

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@gamesetmusic @MikeH_PR @BestForBritain @peoplesvote_hq @thatginamiller @RemainUnitedEU @Another_Europe @campbellclaret @remainutd @unitetoremain Very true. The worst thing that could happen is split tactical voting.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@BergerBrakes @h2g2bob @ruth_lampard @CabbagePatchCat @BestForBritain True, though also need to consider ex Tory Remainers who may switch to LDs but not Corbyn's Lab, the large mass of centrist-ish undecideds, & voters staying at home. Needs to be seat by seat. Suspect in most this matters for neither has much chance.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@scook2003 @BestForBritain But for many voters it isn't - most will vote based on Brexit & their views on public services, tax & other issues. Plenty of centre-right Remainers fear Corbyn more than Brexit - perhaps largely misplaced, but we can't discount this (same with centre left & LDs over coalition).

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@Andrew_Adonis @BestForBritain I am more scared of voters splitting from Lab over Brexit & handing seats to the Tories or Brexit Party that could have been won by Lab if left & centrist Remain supporters didn't vote LD. Despite my tweet above & being a LD member.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@Andrew_Adonis @BestForBritain While true for most sitting MPs, this isn't necessarily true for all as many will vote based on different criteria than in previous - Brexit as well as traditional affiliation. Some sitting MPs may have little chance. Though I agree incumbency big positive & should be default.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@otherwiseimok As a centrist Remainer I'm mostly worried about how he'll pay for the public services he wants, as taxing firms & millionaires won't raise anywhere near enough. No party's numbers add up, but Corbyn's worries me more than most.

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@otherwiseimok ... to a rose-tinted past, who viewed immigration & the EU as the causes of that change, and you have the two main groups who pushed & voted for Brexit. Plus lies during the campaign to swing just enough undecideds. Austerity fuelled Brexit, but not primary cause (in my view).

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@otherwiseimok To some extent I'd agree, but I think the disillusionment among working class voters goes back further, to New Labour leaving them feeling disenfranchised. This raised anti-immigration sentiment as became scapegoat. Combine that with older right-wing voters wanting a return...

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@otherwiseimok Worth noting electoral maths would be v different with a different leader, in both ways - Corbyn can win votes from left wing Brexiteers through his radical econ policies, but loses centrist Remainers for the same reason. Given marginals I'd guess this is net negative, but unsure

[Will Brambley @WillBrambley]

@otherwiseimok I'd argue 2 different messes - austerity & Brexit. It may depress, but it shouldn't surprise that many around the centre feel Corbyn is a bit too left wing to earn their vote, even if they're pro-Remain & far from "the money is mine" mentality.