William Ellis

Senior Economist at IPPR, focussing on the macro economy. Ex-HMT and Oxford Economics. Special interest in macro and AI/Automation. All views are my own.

[Harry Quilter-Pinner @harry_qp]

Those pointing the finger at @andyburnham for the bond market spike are economically illiterate. ALL advanced economies have seen a spike. The cause is global instability. Nothing to do with U.K policy. BUT still poses a challenge for govt ahead of the budget. Me on @BBCNews

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

6/ A permanently damaged economy - from higher rates and energy prices - is more costly than the support we propose.

More here: https://t.co/Hu44fXVbME

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

1/ CPI up to 2.9% as widely expected - and driven entirely by energy prices (owner occupier housing costs below), as the latest Ofgem prices from the Iran war feed through the figures. Without energy, inflation actually would have fallen this month.

(https://t.co/a2VIdaILEx)

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to June 2026.

Read the full article ️➡️ https://t.co/K1ks688Qvn

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

5/ Government should therefore place a temporary ceiling on energy prices if the conflict continues. This directly reduces imported inflation, and hence second-round effects, and stops the BoE raising rates - hitting households and the economy.

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

This is exactly why last Budget was not the time for @OBR_UK to lower its productivity assumption.

Not because the old level was correct, but the data was mixed at best. Patience would have given more evidence and helps avoid multiple damaging changes: https://t.co/7xcUz2DyAu

[John Van Reenen @johnvanreenen]

Some more optimistic UK Productivity trends https://t.co/CmE5osII19

[John Van Reenen @johnvanreenen]

Some more optimistic UK Productivity trends https://t.co/CmE5osII19

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

@MelJStride 3/
This is a long-term, cross-party problem. Under the last Conservative government, the OBR projected debt reaching 310% of GDP by the 2070s and judged the public finances unsustainable. Neither party has yet tackled that long-term challenge. Now is the time to do so.

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

1/
I wrote this report. Grateful for the coverage, and glad @MelJStride is reading, but it doesn't say Labour is building a mountain of debt. It looks at how debt interest could evolve over the next 50 years, starting from a debt stock built up over decades.

[Daily Mail @DailyMail]

Now even Andy Burnham's favourite think tank says Labour is building up a 'mountain' of debt to hand to the next generation https://t.co/Wy4GPGFbxF

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

@MelJStride 2/
Before the financial crisis, debt was ~35% of GDP. By 2010 it was 65%. Fourteen years of Conservative government took it to 94.5%, with around 12 points of that rise during the pandemic. Under Labour it's been broadly flat. Reeves more than doubled her headroom.

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

We recommend government start work now on a new fiscal framework for next parliament, including:
• a dashboard of fiscal risks
• debt servicing as a backstop
• stress testing
• a long-term sustainability assessment
https://t.co/32dEVAHKpy 7/

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

Really proud of the @IPPR report on fiscal sustainability published today, which I authored with @carsjung: https://t.co/32dEVAHKpy
We argue the fiscal framework needs to change over the next parliament to encourage long-term thinking and the right kind of investment. 🧵1/

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

So this isn’t an argument for simply borrowing more.

Government should stick to its current fiscal rules for now. But next parliament, the framework should evolve to distinguish borrowing that builds long-term resilience from borrowing that simply adds liabilities. 6/

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

5/ Britain should join the DSRB, align it with the UK’s own mechanism and push for joint procurement - where the real savings are.

But ultimately, the government will need to face up to the bill, and be honest about the difficult tax and spend decisions needed to fund defence.

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

1/ Britain can afford its existing defence plan, but getting to 3% of GDP is a different matter.

In a new piece with my colleague Sofie, we argue the UK should spend with allies, build capacity together — and be honest about the bill.

https://t.co/28ULVOaGlN

[William Ellis @WillEllisEcon]

4/ Working with allies through a defence bank also helps firms expand and supply chains grow. We need factories to produce our equipment, otherwise more funding can lead to inflation.

But it is not free money for the Treasury — and it will not close the defence funding gap.