Win Smart, CFA

20+ years Buy & Sell side.
Macro trends. Not investment advice.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

COMMODITIES DURING
-SPANISH FLU/WW1
-GREAT DEPRESSION
-WW2
-70s OIL CRISIS
-GFC 👇👇👇

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

@TimmerFidelity @carlquintanilla https://t.co/SAIy6t35vd

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

COMMODITIES DURING
-SPANISH FLU/WW1
-GREAT DEPRESSION
-WW2
-70s OIL CRISIS
-GFC 👇👇👇

[Stan @private_dataguy]

$PCT performs in the most demanding applications because the product IS virgin quality. Currently there are ZERO mechanically recycled resins that work in hinge applications (it is extremely tough!).

Like Bruckner for film, Stacktech is a gatekeeper in the injection molding space and brands look to them for assurance a product works as advertised.

Stacktech works with many of the large brands, and there is now exactly ONE resin that will meet regulatory mandates and have the product quality to work in hinge applications.

There are some hints/ interesting products listed on StackTeck’s website:

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

HARD ASSETS LOWEST SINCE 1925 👇👇👇

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Would you rather have a free one-ounce gold coin, or $20 bucks?

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

WHY WOULD YOU BUY GOLD? 🟡

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Retail investors are crushing Wall Street:

Stocks most favored by retail investors outperformed those most favored by mutual funds by 16 percentage points in May, the largest gap since data began in 2018.

The retail favorite stock basket covers mega-cap tech names, including the Magnificent 7 and semiconductor stocks.

This follows a 14-point outperformance seen in April, making it the 2-month largest gap on record.

This also exceeds the previous 13 percentage point record seen in late 2020, during the early stages of the meme stock mania.

Meanwhile, the total amount of money spent on semiconductor options contracts by retail investors is up to 4.9 TIMES the historical monthly average, the highest on record.

This is also ~25% above the prior record set in March 2024.

Retail investors are loving this market.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

50 cognitive biases

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

HISTORY OF ENERGY

[Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA]

The US does not need to bow to Iran’s threats.

Every day, the “Hormuz weapon” loses power as American oil production, exports, and alternative routes make the global energy system more resilient.

Tehran can rattle the chokepoint, but it can no longer hold the world economy hostage.

When a supplier or infrastructure owner stops understanding its position and starts using its initial advantage to damage and blackmail its customers, it is really signing its own death warrant.

What looked like dominance becomes a countdown to irrelevance.

Graphs via Bloomberg and BNE Intellinews.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

If the movie Interstellar was a 10, Project Hail Mary is a

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, announces an additional massive share buyback authorization worth $80 billion.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

POSSIBLE WASHINGTON–TEHRAN DEAL NEARS FINALIZATION

Work is underway to finalize the text of a Washington–Tehran agreement, according to Al Hadath sources, with negotiations reportedly advancing in earnest.

Sources say a final deal could be announced within hours if Pakistan’s army chief does not travel to Iran, suggesting key diplomatic steps are nearing completion.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Generative AI is being adopted materially faster than the internet was in the 1990s — arguably the fastest major technology adoption curve ever measured.

A few of the most cited comparisons:

About 2–3 years after ChatGPT launched, generative AI usage reached roughly 40%–55% of U.S. adults, depending on the survey.

By comparison, about 3 years after the commercial internet era began, internet adoption was around 30% of U.S. households.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Key points from Q1 2026 earnings season so far:

Roughly 84% of companies beat EPS estimates, which is well above historical averages.

Earnings growth is tracking around 27%–28% year over year, which would be the strongest quarterly growth since late 2021.

Revenue beats have also been unusually strong, with about 81% of companies topping sales estimates.

[Stan @private_dataguy]

In a few months, when folks look back at $PCT and say "well where the signs they would have all these massive customers", the signs were here:

$MCD

https://t.co/SfDVdjXbZJ

Focused on plastic to plastic solutions for a circular solution and examining how to address EPR laws covering packaging.

I wonder who they could possibly get their CLEAR, FDA Approved rPP from for their coffee lids and cold beverage containers?

Hint: There is literally only one provider, mechanical ain't clear and chemical is literally banned in New Jersey.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Key points from Q1 2026 earnings season so far:

Roughly 84% of companies beat EPS estimates, which is well above historical averages.

Earnings growth is tracking around 27%–28% year over year, which would be the strongest quarterly growth since late 2021.

Revenue beats have also been unusually strong, with about 81% of companies topping sales estimates.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

This is $PCT's year 🚀

[PureCycleTech @PureCycleTech]

Monday morning coffee will hit differently when it's from a @PIThermoforming lid made from our PureFive® resin. ☕

PureCycle can make your everyday polypropylene application more sustainable. Reach out to our team today and we can show you how.

https://t.co/8mkTh4mSTh

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Earnings & Valuation

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

@KobeissiLetter https://t.co/ST8sXgKQMp

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Earnings & Valuation

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

@unusual_whales https://t.co/ST8sXgKQMp

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

Earnings & Valuation