Winnable

AFL & Predictive Modelling

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Flag Ranks after Round 13:
1 - Fremantle (↑2)
2 - Sydney (↓1)
3 - Geelong (↓1)
4 - Hawthorn ( – )

Fremantle have taken the #1 spot, but only just - the Dockers and Swans are essentially equally favoured right now

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Up to 78%

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76% chance one of the current top 4 – Freo, Swans, Cats, Hawks – wins the flag

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Flag Ranks after Round 12:
1 - Sydney (↑1)
2 - Geelong (↓1)
3 - Fremantle ( – )
4 - Hawthorn ( – )

There's a big gap to the rest

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76% chance one of the current top 4 – Freo, Swans, Cats, Hawks – wins the flag

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Flag Ranks after Round 11:
1 - Geelong (↑1)
2 - Sydney (↓1)
3 - Fremantle ( – )
4 - Hawthorn (NEW)

Brisbane's big loss sees them drop a long way - but they've only fallen back one place and sit next in line at 5th.

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Flag Ranks after Round 10:
1 - Sydney ( – )
2 - Geelong (NEW)
3 - Fremantle (↑1)
4 - Brisbane Lions (↓2)

Geelong have jumped from 5th and the Hawks have dropped out, but remain next in line

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Flag Ranks after Round 9:
1 - Sydney ( – )
2 - Brisbane Lions (↑1)
3 - Hawthorn (↓1)
4 - Fremantle ( – )

Geelong are next in line and then there's a big gap after that.

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Flag Ranks after Round 8:
1 - Sydney ( – )
2 - Hawthorn ( – )
3 - Brisbane Lions ( – )
4 - Fremantle ( – )

No changes this week - still a gap after the top 3, and the Cats at 5

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Flag Ranks after Round 7:
1 - Sydney (↑3)
2 - Hawthorn (↓1)
3 - Brisbane Lions (↓1)
4 - Fremantle (NEW)

There's now a gap behind the top three - Geelong’s bad loss slides them to fifth, allowing Freo to break into the ranks.

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Flag Ranks after Round 6:
1 - Hawthorn (↑1)
2 - Brisbane Lions (↓1)
3 - Geelong (NEW)
4 - Sydney (↓1)

A good round for the Cats, and a bad one for the Dogs. It remains a very even top 4, with the Dockers the next best.

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Mark Blicavs kicks a goal from a throw-in on the wing

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Flag Ranks after Round 5:
1 - Brisbane Lions ( – )
2 - Hawthorn (↑1)
3 - Sydney (↑1)
4 - Western Bulldogs (↓2)

Dogs slide a little with their loss to the Hawks, but it's an even top 4 right now- with a bit of a gap to 5th (Freo)

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Flag Ranks after Round 4:
1 - Brisbane Lions (↑3)
2 - Western Bulldogs (↓1)
3 - Hawthorn (↓1)
4 - Sydney (���3)

Brisbane never left the ranks despite starting 0-2, and their strong win sees them back to number 1

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Flag Ranks after Round 3:
1 - Western Bulldogs ( – )
2 - Hawthorn (↑1)
3 - Gold Coast(↓1)
4 - Brisbane Lions ( – )

Hawks and Suns effectively =2nd, the round's results just slightly more favourable to Hawthorn despite their byes.
Cats and Freo next in line.

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@roberto_boberto On Gerard Whateley's sen show- towards the end of their Means Test segment today, clipped up here as Dataland
https://t.co/GcUkCvv4fL

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Adam Simpson says he hadn't seen Expected Score until Ken showed him this season (?)

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Flag Ranks after Round 2:
1 - Western Bulldogs ( – )
2 - Gold Coast (↑5)
3 - Hawthorn ( – )
4 - Brisbane Lions (↓2)

The Suns have now shown enough to rise to 2nd

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Flag Ranks after Round 1:
1 - Western Bulldogs (↑1)
2 - Brisbane Lions (↓1)
3 - Hawthorn (↑4)
4 - Adelaide ( – )

Dogs are the standout team right now, ahead of a very even pack of six teams. Cats, Swans and Suns round out the group at ranks 5-7.

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Flag Ranks after Opening Round:
1 - Brisbane Lions
2 - Western Bulldogs (↑1)
3 - Geelong (↓1)
4 - Adelaide

Gold Coast and Sydney have risen to ≈4th, but remain ranked just behind at 5 and 6

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2026 Pre-season Finals Forecast