The Wizard Of Ops

Behind the option dealer positioning curtain 🧙‍♂️ Options, vol, bat flips, dad jokes 🪄 Join us: 🧙‍♂️ Disclaimer:

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

The term structure widget, unique to https://t.co/RBtTsnhj4n's platform, is designed to produce a quick view of which expirations contain most of the greek exposure that you see in the exposure charts organized by strike.

These charts are very helpful to identify which expirations have the most profound imbalance, and which vols to focus on when making an analysis.

The x-axis represents all the option expirations that the underlying has. The y-axis represents the aggregate notional greek exposure.

Behind the bars, the graph is shaded in various colors. Each color represents a binned time gap between the expirations, which gives context to the #Volland data.

https://t.co/P2Hp9XJhaw

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! SPX advanced .3% in an AI led charge.

Another day where the Dow was red and Nasdaq was strongly green. Last Friday I had stated that the most likely track for equities now is a recovery this week, possibly as high as Thursday’s close to satisfy the vol signal likely followed by a flush. The market seems to be projecting a recovery since call skew is quite high right now. While that is true, does positioning match the skew?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Volland SPX Spot-Vol Beta: -0.35
This gauge measures how much the VIX is reacting relative to the S&P 500’s price move. A reading of -0.35 suggests volatility is modestly under-reacting, meaning options traders are not aggressively increasing protection relative to the index move. Overall, the volatility response appears contained.

Spot-vol beta: how much VIX is over- or under-reacting to spot move. Vol Event study by @wizofops
Source: https://t.co/wR9hqXIoUG

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Q: Is the outsized VIX move vs SPX here bad?

A: No. Remember that undervixing works like a cartoon running. It runs in place for a while, then it takes off - at least after an overvixing. It could mean we get some follow-up vol tomorrow, but it doesn't necessarily threaten the vol event.

The Spot Vol Beta VolHack is available on all tiers of Volland at https://t.co/tH2hl0Titv.

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

June 8, 2026- Bull vs. Bear Thesis Cont'd.- Market Moves w Volland: Dealer Positioning & Trade Strategies #optionstrading #volatility #liveanalysis #marketdata #optiongreeks #trading #bullsvsbears #stocks #options #markets #SPR $SPX $AVGO @darkmattertrade https://t.co/l8Pt8IMmTk

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! US equities followed Asian equities on Friday as SPX dropped -2.65%.

SPX got down towards 7400 and threatened the higher end of the June drop range at 7375. SPX still has room to run underneath, but there is a fly in the ointment now. Friday triggered the 30th vol event signal since 2012, where VIX overreacted to spot-vol correlation by more than 2 points. According to the study, this means we will see Thursday’s close of roughly 7580 within 3 weeks. This succeeded 27 out of 29 instances for a 93% success rate. The 7580 SPX call is implying a 31% chance of success, making this a very nice opportunity. Is the environment primed for this to succeed this time around?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! In a twist of fate, AI underperformed in a rally. SPX gained .4%.

It should have been a welcome rotation for bulls with SPX rising despite the AI stocks getting trounced. If the market can rally in a broader way, that gives it credibility. But bears might also see it as welcome. Anticipating an economic squeeze from the Strait closure would hurt the stocks that rallied yesterday for the most part. This honestly is the first time I see optimism on both sides; it is kind of strange. Vol was also crushed yesterday, which I think was the true motivation for the rally.

Which way are options traders leaning?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! The market turned red for the first time in 9 days, dropping -.65%.

This drop feels a little more sustainable because we started seeing some weakness in the AI names that boosted SPX. Overnight, AVGO showed that perhaps the “E” part of the forward PEs was a little overstated. Meanwhile, the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued and the American SPR took a dive, approaching only half capacity. The market is finally beginning to notice.

Has the options market finally begun to notice as well?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! SPX closed higher for the 9th straight day, closing +.1%.

Trump seems to be living in an alternate universe when it comes to Iranian peace talks. Trump insists a ceasefire is in effect even though there are strikes. He insists talks are ongoing despite Iran cutting them off until Israel and Hezbollah stop fighting, which has not happened yet. Trump believes the new ceasefire deal will give him everything he wants despite public reports making him sound desperate to create an environment meets Iran’s preliminary demands (Israel stops fighting, he declares the blockade over, etc).

On a related note, equity markets also seem to be living in an alternate universe, where AI will solve all problems. The internet was in the same position in 2000 as AI is in now. Two very useful technologies that were way ahead of themselves. Oil prices are beginning to creep up once again, and the Hormuz crisis is getting to acute levels everywhere but in China, who built up enough reserves and alternatives to sustain.

Are options traders also living in this alternative universe?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! SPX advanced .25% for its 8th straight green day.

Markets whipsawed based on diplomatic messaging between Iran and the US. That alongside the Monday effect caused IV to spike above 16. How far does it have to go for skew to be appropriately priced?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

June 1, 2026 - Bull vs. Bear Thesis - Market Moves with Volland: Dealer Positioning & Trade Strategies #optionstrading #volatility #liveanalysis #marketdata #optiongreeks #trading #bullsvsbears #stocks #options #markets $SPX $QQQ @darkmattertrade https://t.co/cI4YFLnF6N

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! Another vol crush session that buoyed SPX another .2%.

Over the past 3 days, VIX has dropped by 2 full points, which is usually something that happens after a major selloff. It is somewhat recovering now almost like a Monday effect, but also a new month effect.

Chinese data shows their import demand for oil plummeted over the past couple of months, instead opting to draw down on their massive reserves. As it were, this is actually saving the world oil supply crisis caused by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to Trump’s attack. Last week there was a “deal”, but now there is no deal and kinetic exchanges during a ceasefire continue. To quote Inigo Montoya… We keep using that word (ceasefire). I don’t think it means what you think it means.

How is the options landscape looking?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

@wojofooo It is a good point. Vol has been less connected intraday to equities.

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! SPX closed flat as Iran and the US resume fighting.

The larger news is that despite a slow escalation in physical fighting, IV dropped across the curve considerably. SPX was flat, but VIX was down .72 points. That is a significant undervixing that approached the recent VIX floor.

Did it reprice the skew curve too low?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! Headlines of a peace deal took SPX from a loss into a .6% gain.

The headline said, “US and Iran reach a peace deal”, but Trump nor Ayatollah Mojtaba Khomeini agreed to it yet. One would hope they were informed of the terms before the negotiators reached the peace deal. The terms of the peace deal weren’t completely revealed, only pieces of it. Part of it is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, making it 4 months of closure of the Strait. The warnings from the bond market, oil analysts, logistics analysts, and SPR drawdowns during normal buildup periods are screaming, but equities and now more recently the volatility plane is ignoring all of it and just bidding up AI and memory chip stocks.

Did anything change in options?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

New Listing Rules & The SpaceX Question | Trader's Workshop | The Brew Ep. 463 https://t.co/7bntz8Cf8h

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Vol has dropped a lot. It is now lower than the implied dealer positioning. This says it should pop at some point.

(Implied Skew chart from https://t.co/dBT35mAYvO Institutional. SPX, June 18th expiration.)

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! With Iran-US peace hopes waning, ES pulled back from Monday a little bit, but SPX advanced .6% from Friday.

There are several market items to consider yesterday. The first is the persistence of IV. You could say that vol had the post-weekend effect yesterday, but we didn’t have a pre-weekend effect on Friday. IV has overvixed slightly in a consistent manner over the past few weeks with some intraday spikes to the downside that end up recovering the following day. The second is how concentrated this rally has been in AI-related tech. The Dow actually declined yesterday. More recently, MU has benefitted from the rise. It has a positive spot-vol correlation, which classifies it as a meme stock. Few meme stocks have a $1T valuation, however. Finally, Iran-US peace talks seem to have broken down a little bit, but oil prices and energy stocks continue to drop despite the inventory dangers of the 80-85% closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It seems like there is a gamble that this will resolve quickly, but if that’s the case it seems Iran will benefit.

Were there changes to the option landscape?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

This afternoon at 4 p.m., I will be hosting a "Volland After Hours" chat open to all. (Typically, these are https://t.co/P0OCtxbXPa subscribers-only.)

We will focus on market maker mechanics and current #Volland data for AI names like MU, AVGO, and AMD. We will also look at energy names, and see if there are any moves there.

The chat will be hosted on the Volland Stage in https://t.co/obBI11lTy7. Join us!

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

May 26, 2026 - Market Moves with Volland: Dealer Positioning & Trade Strategies #optionstrading #volatility #liveanalysis #marketdata #optiongreeks #trading #stocks #options #markets $SPX $QQQ @darkmattertrade https://t.co/FqMeYynrJ3

[The Wizard Of Ops @WizOfOps]

Good Morning! SPX rose towards 7500 several times on peace speculation but closed only .4% up.

After the close Friday, reports started surfacing that a peace deal was imminent. As details of the deal were revealed, it seemed that the rest of the world was supporting it out of exasperation or declared America lost the war. Trump’s late-night rants on Truth Social clearly shows the public admonishment of the deal undermines his self-talk that the deal is a victory for America. Usually, Trump works hard to save face in these scenarios, but there are too many voices in his ear telling him to do different things. I still think kinetic warfare is not over yet.

Have the options changed at all during this period?

Read more on today's 𝑺 𝒖 𝒃 𝒔 𝒕 𝒂 𝒄 𝒌 post at wizardofops. s u b s t a c k. com