@Mr_Derivatives By the time he came up with this, everyone was already knee-deep in losses from crypto, thanks to his cheerleading—along with Tom Lee and Mark Newton—for BTC at $180-250K and ETH at $9-11K.
🚨 Dan Ives of Wedbush has published a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Wednesday after the bell, Tesla will report its FY4Q25 earnings with more positivity around the company’s results after deliveries beat expectations despite seeing demand headwinds across its business. The company has put forward back-to-back improving quarters (still more wood to chop) from a delivery perspective due to a strong refresh cycle from its lower-cost vehicles in September 2025 and its new vehicle launches across geographies, including the Model YL in China, leading to incremental opportunities to deliver better top-line results this upcoming quarter. That said, the Tesla story going forward is around the AI transformation being led by the autonomous and robotics initiatives.
The major focus on the conference call will be the Robotaxi rollout across the US including the removal of safety drivers across its fleet, and we believe the Street is at a crossroads with Tesla as the bulls and bears debate how quickly the Robotaxi era will take shape over the coming year. Over the last few weeks Tesla removed the safety driver from its Austin fleet which is an important first step in its long-term vision for the Robotaxi after a successful launch over the past few months with a safety driver. In our view we expect an accelerated Robotaxi launch across the US with importantly volume production of Cybercabs starting in the April/May timeframe with Musk expected to address the rollout of Cybercab and Optimus on the call. We also expect in 2026 an easing of the federal framework for autonomous with more power going to the federal regulators with states having less authority on the autonomous rules framework likely under an Executive Order.
The Street is looking for revenues of ~$25 billion with automotive revenue of ~$18 billion which we believe is achievable given the strength across EV deliveries in 4Q and energy generation which adds incremental upside to estimates. GM ex-credits are expected to show further improvements this quarter on its upward trajectory from the lows over the past year, while EPS is expected to be $0.45 which we believe is beatable with a stronger impact from its energy division which carries a higher margin profile vs. its EV business. We believe FSD penetration could increase to 50%+ and change the financial model/margins for Tesla looking ahead.
Musk is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth as "wartime CEO" and we expect Robotaxis to be rolled out aggressively to over 30 US cities in 2026. We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter in Tesla's growth story is now beginning with the AI era now here. It starts with autonomous then robotics as we believe the autonomous valuation is worth $1 trillion alone to the Tesla story over the next few years that will start to get unlocked over the coming months. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by the end of 2026...as full scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap. Our bull case scenario is $800 for Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months. We believe Tesla will own ~70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade as no other company can match the scale and scope of Tesla coupled with its broadening AI footprint.”
The lower $ETH trend line is ~1750. That’s the revised target of @MarkNewtonCMT . Would be great to get there in the next 2-3 months, so we can start with a clean slate.