@liz_churchill10 People were prosecuted, lost jobs, were financially ruined because of this. Obama further dirtied his hands by his statement yesterday feigning incredulity. Glen Beck does a wonderful treatment of the Gabbard released memo. It's worth 30 minutes to watch:
https://t.co/fdHk5mkyA2
The Hyperliquid Investment Case. A long post.
Lately, I've seen a lot of takes on $HYPE and three digit targets thrown like it's nothing.
Most of those posts are driven by hopium.
I've already reviewed HYPE back in 2023 (see next post). This is my update on that.
What was once a DEX with a refreshing UI has now become a fully-fledged ecosystem with its own token.
$HYPE was airdropped to users in late 2024 and pumped to $46 as of June this year. Its pump was impressive and more is to come.
However, time for a reality check and contrarian views to balance the hopium. Next, I'll give you three reasons to be cautious with your money.
Hit a follow @duonine and bookmark this. Let's start.
1⃣ The biggest HYPE pump is already behind us. While a price of $100 is likely later, beyond that will be a hard ask.
Why?
Because of tokenomics. You can't fight gravity. HYPE is already at almost $40 billion FDV. If the price goes to $100 it will be at $100 billion FDV.
That will put it at SOL, BNB, and XRP levels. Hard to see it go much beyond that. That's a 3x from here.
Moreover, only 33% of HYPE tokens are in circulation out of 1 billion. Millions of tokens will enter circulation later this year and plenty more in 2026. That's not bullish for its price.
Best to tone down your expectations at current valuations. It's a solid bet to double your money. Beyond that, it becomes harder to recommend.
The only unknow is their HypeEVM growth. That can be the catalyst for HYPE in the next bull market and a lot of that depends on their DEX staying on top.
Notice that the number of active users on HypeEVM chain declined after HYPE topped at $46, making lower highs.
Ideally, we want the HypeEVM ecosystem to grow regardless of HYPE price movements. For now, HYPE's price action is the most important signal.
2⃣ Exchanges are the most competitive space in crypto and Hyperliquid will be under pressure.
HYPE is the number one DEX today, but I'm old enough to know how this goes.
Remember Uniswap?
Remember GMX?
The spotlight for exchanges comes and goes. Hype is one of the most elegant implementation to date with a team that delivers and puts the user first.
However, they increased their fees and competitors are after them. Even Binance and Bybit tried to tip them off balance.
Since that did not work, now everyone is creating the "next" Hyperliquid. What will their main attack vector be? Lower fees and liquidity wars.
3⃣ HypeEVM will experience their first major blowup.
Many builders moved to HypeEVM and created copy-pasta protocols: money markets, leverage staking, looping, swaps, stablecoins, basis trade yields, wrapped tokens. You name it.
I expect one or more of these protocols to eventually blow up. Either due to hacks, poor design/security or malice. We've seen it so many times elsewhere there is no point to mention it.
Most HyperEVM protocols have anon teams and they don't carry the pedigree of Jeff and his team.
Why is this here?
Because that can make or break an ecosystem, depending on how big the damage it. We've seen it in Cosmos and the latest one was Cetus on SUI.
This will also impact Hyperliquid, the DEX. An un-necessary risk, but the advantages of having such an ecosystem outweighs the risk it carries.
I recommend being careful with your money when farming the HypeEVM protocols for points since the risks are still high as a new and growing chain.
�� BONUS & Bottom line
You may be wondering why the Hyperliquid team have done so well and they treated their users like kings?
Before Hyperliquid, they were market makers. That's how they made their money. That's also probably how they do it today.
This is also what prompted them to create Hyperliquid. A performant DEX that can generate millions in profit for market makers.
Here's just one example of a random market maker on Hyperliquid today. He started with 6.5k. He made $1.5 mil in profit since. Where does the profit come from?
You.
That's why the Hyperliquid team does not need to sell HYPE tokens. Instead they buy it with their profits.
This money comes from their users and traders. That's why they treat users like kings and share the profits via HYPE buy-backs.
Jeff and his team are at a different level. They provide an excellent service and users are happy to partake. That's all they needed to print.
Incentives are aligned. But most importantly, the team shared back their success. This is their real flywheel.
The bottom line. 👇
I remain bullish on HYPE in the next two years with a good chance the token eventually hits > $100 in this period.
Nevertheless, the risk/reward becomes less and less attractive as HYPE increases in price from here. Ideally, buy it at a discount and ride the next wave to maximize profits.
Make sure to book solid profits when HYPE hits three digits. I will provide regular TA on its price to keep you updated.
Right now, $37 has to turn into support. Otherwise, HYPE made a lower high which is bearish. Good entries anywhere around $30 and below if we get it.
If you enjoyed this take, give it a share and hit a follow @duonine for more awesome posts. You can also check my newsletter for similar content in my bio link.
◾ If you liked this thread, don't forget to:
◾ Follow me - more valuable content is coming that will help you stay one step ahead.
◾ Like, retweet and leave a comment - your engagement helps me create even more interesting content! 💬
https://t.co/9QwS90dSJY
@DefxOfficial@PanteraCapital@CMT_Digital@GumiCryptos@BaboonVC@CoinShares@robotventures We wish you all the best with your new project Darshan! Let’s hope it’s more successful than Bank of Hodlers and Vauld!
19 days to the 3rd anniversary of you freezing 150,000 customers’ assets after causing Vauld’s insolvency by giving away $200million. 👏🏼
@AllTheProtein@100trillionUSD@BTCEarth2 I'm sure planB would agree when I say, just don't rely on ONE source, one person, one opinion. Listen to several and make your own opinion from them, combined. Because nobody knows the future, even if they were spot-on for 3 months!
@100trillionUSD@BTCEarth2 Maybe he means you calling prices for each month. You nailed Aug, Sep, Oct then predicted 95k in Nov and 135k in Jan. But the market topped in Nov at 69k. the bear followed. I bought in Nov and held waiting for gains that never came. Got rekt. My bad.