12/ Conclusion:
If the cost to move the market < payout from the market,
the market is not predicting reality — it’s incentivizing manipulation.
Current design makes that condition frequently true.
1/ In the light of yesterday's @Backpack "above 200M FDV" bet on @Polymarket - Polymarket’s current design for price/FDV markets (single-point snapshot at a fixed time) creates a structural vulnerability: outcomes can be bought, not predicted. More in this thread: