Bobby

Algo trader

My best friend is compound interest.

2017 class

WSOT 2021 5th place.

[Cobie @cobie]

When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.

I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.

If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.

If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.

While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.

In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.

I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.

Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.

The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.

In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did.

In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.

Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@readysetliqd @skyquake_1 Exactly, if futures would trade lower, it would be cheaper to long them, rather than pay funding on perp.
There is a demand for leverage, therefore “free money” if like

Difference between exchanges reflects local retardedness of participants.

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@karl_xbt 🤝

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@ScottPh77711570 @Larryjamieson_ @RichB118 That is a legendary thread!

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@cryptoturnip @azidynamics @insiliconot @Bonbloxx @Magicp0nziToken @warobusiness It is up to you to decide

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@azidynamics @insiliconot @Bonbloxx @Magicp0nziToken @warobusiness I see. Thank you for making it clear.

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@insiliconot @Bonbloxx @Magicp0nziToken @warobusiness Terminal UI is great. But what is the reason to send the calls through the 3rd server and not directly to the exchange? Makes you think it is to watch the flow. Would appreciate a clarification if I am wrong

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@ByzGeneral Happened just after 30 min downtime. Liquidity simply wasn’t there. Less than 10m of volume on that candle. Under normal conditions would be less than 200$ wick.

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@MacroAlf That’s a very bad take

[cephalopodshop @macrocephalopod]

Couple of thoughs about trend following is probably the most straightforward systematic trading strategy to implement - you're just buying the stuff that's been going up and selling the stuff that's been going down.

[storm @stormXBT]

Alright, after a year or so I'm back mooncalfs to herald a new era of technological supremacy in mathematical finance.

Going to start publishing scripts and insights like it's 2018 again. Too many people using primitive shit. Stay tuned

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@quantfiction Good read.
It is better never to use full Kelly, since you are almost always would be on the right side of the curve in reality. I apply max drawdown limit to calculate Optimal F and then multiply by the coefficient (0,5-0,9 depends on the strategy) to downplay it even more.

[Quant Fiction @quantfiction]

The Kelly Criterion (which I've been reliably informed was named after the 2nd-best QB in Bills history) is nearly ubiquitous in gambling and trading circles. But the implications of such a simple formula are more profound than most seem to realize.

Let's take a look:

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@bitbitcrypto Long steth, short eth. Obviously

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@RNR_0 I feel so bad for you.

Maybe a thought that he is in calm place and not felling any pain anymore will help you to accept his decision.

Really really sorry for your loss.

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@BurtRock69 @0xdoug @0xfbifemboy All you have to do is to “substract” the SPX price movements from BTC. Then use moving averages or channel breakout to “bet” on trend. Or Bollinger Bands to bet on return to the mean.

Oversimplification, but in general you should get an idea.

[Stat Arb @quant_arb]

How to make a basic trading algorithm:

- templates
- lazy tricks
- what you need

...

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@SalsaTekila Usdt perp trades with small premium most of the time

[JSC @JSCCapital]

0/ Druckenmiller discussing his updated world view with @collision at the Sohn Conference. Since trying to ring the alarm bell on inflation last year he said what's surprised him is threefold:
1) Magnitude of inflation
2) The bubble burst w/ more vengeance (e.g., a lot of good

[Bobby @XBTBobby]

@imagine_mev This!