MV

Stock research, investment ideas and random thoughts

[MV @XRPickachu]

Turns out it might be cheaper to use human labour after all. Who would have guessed. Seems we have come full circle.

[MV @XRPickachu]

Charter $CHTR reported Q1 2026 earnings last week.

Not Great, Not Terrible… Some aspects of the thesis got weakened, others got a boost.

Read the full report here: https://t.co/MFTSeLxTTV

[Noah @antibearthesis]

$ADBE IS A GENERATIONAL BUY AT $240

[MV @XRPickachu]

@RichardWedekin1 $ADBE seems the most decoupled on fundamentals in my opinion. On all counts

[MV @XRPickachu]

The market is pricing it like a melting ice cube 🧊

But at $10B+ in FCF, management could retire ~10% of the float annually at these levels.

Even modest re-rating to 15x on $26+ FCF/share gets you near $400 🚀

[MV @XRPickachu]

Adobe ($ADBE) at $225 — the numbers are getting harder to ignore.

FCF: $1.3B → $10.3B over 15 years.
Per-share FCF: $2.71 → $25.52.
Share count down ~18% from peak.

At 8.8x FCF, this is the cheapest Adobe has been in the entire post-cloud era.

[MV @XRPickachu]

@NoLimitGains Absolute insanity! I recently did a write up on Adobe. Might be a fun read of you are interested in the topic:

https://t.co/BDNL1Zm6gj

[MV @XRPickachu]

@Mayhem4Markets @FactSet I agree fully on $CHTR. Once the CapEx inflection and user stabilisation is confirmed in Q2/Q3 and FCF forecasts are revised a lot of people will need to cover their shorts.

[MV @XRPickachu]

At ~6x FCF per share $CHTR could quickly climb past $450 (+113%)

This doesn’t factor any potential multiple expansion.

You can see in 2023 despite worsening metrics shares traded at ~12x free cashflow

[MV @XRPickachu]

$CHTR is heading for a CAPEX cliff that could propel the stock to +$450

Let me explain💡:

Charter has been spending at peak capital intensity - $11.7 billion in 2025 and has guided for $11.4 billion in 2026.

This pace of spending however won’t last much longer.

[MV @XRPickachu]

The per-share math becomes even more compelling when you layer in buybacks.

At $218/share, every $1B of buybacks retires ~4.6 million shares.

If Charter deploys $5–7B annually in repurchases the share count could decline by 5% per year, creating an exponential FCF trajectory

[MV @XRPickachu]

@DeepIceValue @DeepIceValue $CHTR is definitely on my radar. Recently dod a deep dive on that. Might be an interesting read.

https://t.co/uknzbOvFyy

[MV @XRPickachu]

https://t.co/TxSA1HhfIz

[MV @XRPickachu]

Sharing another one of my portfolio companies and the deep dive I created: Charter Communications $CHTR

[MV @XRPickachu]

CHTR trades at 6x earnings, 17% FCF yield, with 26% short interest. The bull case isn't growth — it's a mechanical capex decline from $11.7B → $8B that could more than double FCF.

My full deep dive on why this might be the most asymmetric setup in telecom👇

[MV @XRPickachu]

https://t.co/BDNL1Zm6gj

[MV @XRPickachu]

Adobe $ADBE is down 60% from its highs. The CEO just quit. The DOJ sued them. Wall Street thinks AI will kill the business.

And yet: 12% revenue growth, 89% gross margins, $10B+ in free cash flow, trading at 11x earnings.

I spent weeks pulling this apart. Here’s the full thesis

[MV @XRPickachu]

@varunv_malhotra Hi Varun, I recently wrote a piece on Adobe. Would appreciate if you could take a look

https://t.co/BDNL1Zm6gj

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

We've spent the last 10 months analyzing EVERY single tariff development:

Here's the EXACT playbook for investors.

1. Trump puts out cryptic post on tariffs coming for a specific country or sector, markets drift lower

2. Trump announces large tariff rate (50%+) and markets crash to shake out weak positions

3. Dip buyers step in but the head fake rally leads to fresh lows where smart money begins buying

4. After the market closes on Friday, President Trump doubles down on new tariffs to apply pressure

5. On Saturday, the target of the new tariff typically responds or comments

6. On Sunday, before the futures open, Trump posts an announcement saying he is working on a solution

7. Futures open on sharply higher Sunday at 6 PM ET but begin losing momentum into the Monday open

8. After the Monday open, Treasury Secretary Bessent appears on live TV and reassures investors

9. Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration tease a trade deal

10. Trump announces a new trade deal and the stock market hits a record high

11. Repeat from step #1

Part of our strong YTD performance comes from following this EXACT playbook in times of trade tensions.

The US is currently on step #6 with China.