There's actually a pretty simple technical explanation for why nobody has managed to datamine the Pirate Shop Access Token's drop rate yet ( since i keep seeing some leakers getting accused of gatekeeping it )
it's simply might be that the probability was never sent to the client in the first place.
Let's say Epic has a 1-in-500,000 drop chance stored in a private server configuration (just an example, not the actual rate).
Whenever you open a chest, the server could handle the RNG roll and grant the token if you win. Your game only receives the outcome, not the probability or the logic behind it.
Even capturing network traffic wouldn't necessarily help. You can't extract a value that was never transmitted.
Another thing worth mentioning is that even many Epic developers might not know the actual odds. Not every developer has access to every backend service or configuration, especially when they don't need it for their work.
So it's not necessarily that dataminers haven't found the number yet. There might not be a number in the client to find in the first place.
Of course, none of this is confirmed. It's just a very plausible explanation from a technical perspective.
I haven’t really investigated much but it’s actually possible that the role dice itself is server sided , meaning the configuration only exists in the epic server , everytime u open a chest you only get a reply from the server it’s either a yes or no, with that the actual value was never sent
It’s only been 2 days and some people already promoting “tools” that tell you if the pirate token exists in ur match or not lol
To be clear such thing does not exist, if you download such tools you are risking everything for absolutely nothing
The Pirate Shop Access Token drop rates are just estimates, not confirmed probabilities, and I don’t believe we have enough reliable data to establish an accurate rate yet..
You could find it within 100 chests or open 10,000 and still get nothing. That’s how RNG works , there isn’t really a guaranteed percentage.
but if you really want to improve your chances, squad up. With 4 players actively searching, you could get way higher chances to find it faster by opening more chests collectively
I’d say enjoy the adventure, it is just pure luck
I’m not 100% certain since it’s all assumptions and not based on real data , but i don’t think they have custom spawn rates for each game mode , many people found it in squad games , many other did in solo games , it’s just pure luck atp
But probably estimations could get more accurate in a few more days
@LHibou8 Mathematically it depends more on how much work you are doing as a team
If you are opening a lot more chests in a single solo game than what your team collectively opens in a squad games then solos could be faster