YeahDave

Space | Energy | Defense | AI | Quantum | Finance |
Posts are for education & discussion, never investment advice.
The market pays me, I share everything freely

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

I am still hovering/watching $HAWK, but no position yet. I don't want any more space sector exposure until after the $SPCX IPO. Getting their first SEC fillings would also be nice before I jump in.

[Ashim1330 @Ashim1330]

@Yeah_Dave I assume it wasn’t interesting enough for you given i haven’t seen any other posts?

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

@mkfilko

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

I think I mentioned the $BRUN unlock like 10 times... Now the AI slop merchants are creating a panic the other direction. Seeing a bunch of wrong information being put out.

Might make for some interesting prices. Still just a small side bet. Starting to feel like crypto...

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Hardly anyone talks about reducing risk or taking profits. Just more and more grandiose price targets.

Many of these are now down 30% or more. Let's start valuing risk management and profit taking. Capital preservation is crucial for compounding wealth.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Going to start trimming and capturing some profits after multiple +100% weeks. Will likely start filling 13Fs soon, I gotta clean things up a bit.

In particular Space sector holdings are up an eye watering amount and I was strongly leveraged in this sector going in. I want to gradually scale out into $SPCX IPO on some of it. $RKLB and $ASTS are by far my largest positions and I don't plan on that changing.

Trimmed:
$DRAM - China entering the game sooner than I expected, will start to gradually scale out.
$FLY - captured from $20 to ~$50, will leave a little bit into the $SPCX IPO
$RDW - trimming half after $9 to $18. Cool projects and engineering, terrible management track record and margins/dilution. Some early signs of a turn around in Q1. Market cap is now basically double prior ATH. Will continue to scale out into the $20's/$SPCX IPO then watch to see if they are evolving into something I can hold long-term.
$ASTI - going to start scaling down gradually. Size is too big (started at just under 5% of company at $2) and I need to see more concrete progress rather than seemingly empty statements.
$BKSY - up over 600%, size is too big now/taking some profits.
$VELO - traded this for ~500%+, going to trim from $20-$30 range into IPO. Very interested in their decentralized manufacturing move recently.
$OUST - held for over a year so going to trim LTCG positions a little into the $40's. Interesting general robotics play long term but they need to shrink things down much further to be viable for the humanoids.
$TE - trimmed around $9, been in since ~$2 with big size so it got too big relative to the weight I want it at now.

Also will be taking profits/closing on $VOYG, $PL.

Going to keep $BE, $LUNR, $OSS, $WOLF, $NVTS, $IFX, $PENG, $ALAB, $INFQ, $NBIS, $JOBY, $QS, $BAER.

Sorry for the ticker spam, but hopefully now people will stop asking. Not financial advice. Holdings could change any moment. These aren't all of my positions (don't want to get doxxed with 13F).

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

It's not enough to compare yourself to $RKLB and then say you are "more", but then you go on and suggest $FLY is an AI company providing services comparable to Anduril and $PLTR and xAI?!

Mega red flag. Not to mention disrespectful given how much $RKLB has helped them.

[ValueOverPrice @ValueInIdeas]

$FLY CEO Jason Kim on $RKLB comparison:

"Rocket Labs is a fair comp for the hardware and launch side, but we're more than that. We're a mission company.

And not only are we launching, landing, operating, but we've got all the AI software, the applications that we're developing that gets deployed to the ground servers as well as edge processing on orbit."

Not sure I'd completely agree with that ;)

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

@drakeondigital 1. IPO'ing through a SPAC does not make a company shady.

2. I doubt they are paying anyone. The AI slop merchants are just jumping on the hype bandwagon.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

$BRUN (early token factory/neocloud): first 10-Q just dropped. Some highlights plus additional recent news.

Good:
▫️Backlog and ARR tripled in three months, and BRUN has already locked in another ~4x by year-end.
▫️Contracted backlog: $120M (Dec '25) → $360M (Apr '26) → $1.415B (Dec '26E).
▫️ARR: $30M → $96M → $400M+ FY2026E.
▫️Per the 10-Q: "$1,450M contracted revenue backlog is achieved as of 6/1/26. The company anticipates additional signed agreements will be added to the December total between 6/1/26 and 12/31/26."
▫️Q1 2026 revenue up 165% YoY.
▫️Seven new lessees added. $NBIS listed as a customer.
▫️Balance sheet cleaned up, no traditional debt.
▫️Operating cash flow positive.
▫️Customers are prepaying, which funds the lease-financed GPU buildout.
▫️Master services agreement signed with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's Nvidia-backed frontier lab) for managed GPU compute and cloud infrastructure. Combined contract value $471.7M. 36 months, non-cancelable, take-or-pay (customer must pay all fees for the full term regardless of usage).
▫️DA Davidson raised its price target to $45 from $25 (Buy).

Bad:
▫️Dilution/supply overhang of ~22.8M shares (~37% of current common).
▫️Includes an earnout unlock of ~11M shares (~18% of current common) that could trigger as early as June 8.
▫️The 85.6% gross margin excludes colocation rent and GPU depreciation. Add those back and Q1 was roughly breakeven at the cost-to-serve line, with a -38% net margin.
▫️The filing leans more bare-metal than full-stack. The 10-Q repeatedly describes the offering as renting out "bare metal GPU servers," accounted for as operating leases where "the customer assumes full control over the equipment." That reads closer to bare-metal/IaaS GPU leasing with bundled ancillary services than the slide deck's "managed Kubernetes, console, full-stack" marketing.

Bottom line: I don't think this is an "early $NBIS." Those comparisons feel unfounded right now. I'm also seeing the same "they will triple the $1.4B backlog again" error floating around, likely from a confusing slide in the deck. We don't actually know how much the backlog will grow between now and year-end.

That said, it's still an interesting risk/reward side bet. I may reduce position size into the supply unlock and then re-add after the dust settles.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Putting bull market shenanigans aside, $BRUN >> $SHAZ at these market caps.

Same Neocloud model on both (asset-light real estate, asset-heavy on GPUs).

The $SHAZ street estimates are mostly made up.

Consensus has FY2027 revenue at $1.201B. But the two take-or-pay contracts everyone points to (ESDS $1.25B + APAC $950M) only add up to ~$440M/yr at full run-rate. So consensus is baking in 2.7x the contracted run-rate, which means ~$761M (63%) of that 2027 number is revenue from business SHAZ hasn't signed yet. The "1.9x EV/EBITDA" people keep quoting is assuming they nearly triple the backlog AND deploy all of it.

The ramp is fantasy land too. Revenue up 93x from 2025 to 2026, then 766x by 2027? Their actual Q1 2026 gross margin was NEGATIVE 78.8%, and consensus needs it at ~66% by 2027 (with EBITDA margins north of 60%). That's a ~145-point gross-margin flip in 12-18 months. With about 30 employees deploying multiple GPU clusters flawlessly. How??

And the forward EV/EBITDA is also a bit of a magic trick. It divides today's EV by 2027's EBITDA and pretends the balance sheet stays frozen. It won't. ESDS alone is tied to ~$720M of capex. Near-term commitments (~$812M) are well above available capital (~$514M), so there's roughly a $300M hole that probably gets filled with equity. That's ~23% dilution before you even reach 2027. The "cheap" multiple sits on a share count that doesn't exist yet, and the EV that actually produces $749M of EBITDA is going to be a lot bigger than $1.39B.

These street "analysts" 🙄 ....

BRUN, by contrast: ~17x the delivered revenue, growing instead of shrinking, backlog already in production, basically no debt, and cheaper on every metric that uses revenue you can actually see today. It's not flawless (thin cash, info is the de-SPAC margin claims still need a clean 10-Q), but they are executing with backlog already in production, and it earned $NVDA Exemplar Cloud status on Blackwell, the same performance certification $CRWV, $NBIS, Azure/$MSFT, and $ORCL hold.

Could SHAZ pull it off? Sure, it's possible. But you're betting on heroic, totally unproven execution just to make the math work. I'd rather own the one already doing it. I told the vampire people as much 🤷‍♂️

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Thanks for the reply and for your article. I enjoyed/appreciated reading them. Thanks for spending the time.

In your article you say:

"Management says contracted backlog tripled from $360M to $1.45B in just 6 weeks and is on track to triple again by year-end 2026. If that holds, the FY2027 ARR estimates above are likely conservative."

"Contracted backlog went from $120M (Dec 2025) to $360M (April 2026) to $1.45B (June 2026). That's a 12x increase in 6 months. Management says it triples again by year-end 2026, putting backlog around $4-5B"

So it might be worth correcting that.

Also I would suggest a couple points.

Unless I misread something, the earnout shares are contingent shares that increase the count above the 61.4M basic when the VWAP hurdles trigger, so they dilute per-share economics regardless of whether you label the mechanics issuance or release.

So the "already priced in" assumes the market is valuing BRUN on FD. For a three-week-old de-SPAC with thin coverage and heavy retail that is not a safe assumption, and the lock-up release around June 8 is a real near-term supply event. In the end I think it is something people should be aware of to paint a fairer picture.

Also colocation is not fixed as the company scales. To convert the $1.4B backlog they are adding new data centers, so colocation rent and GPU depreciation both grow with the footprint, not just revenue against a fixed base. Plus colocation carries variable overage charges. So margin expansion depends on utilization within each capacity tranche, not a clean "8x revenue over fixed cost."

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

@RosannaInvests @KawzInvests yup, good analogy thanks!

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

@spacanpanman Nice, hard to beat a very early entry with price just above NAV.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

On proven/delivered fundamentals I would rank $BRUN > Exascale ($BCAR) > $SHAZ

$BCAR is a SPAC set to merge with Exascale Labs and list as $XLAB. An S-4 was filed two weeks ago with Exascale's audited FY25/FY24 financials, but it's not yet effective and the deal hasn't closed, so numbers can still change. One big flag is that the auditor flagged going-concern on Exascale.

(A going-concern flag is an auditor's signal of doubt about whether a company can keep operating for at least the next 12 months...)

$BRUN's numbers are also preliminary, its first 10-Q is still pending (filed late), so those could shift too.

My quick read is that BRUN has roughly 2-4x Exascale's revenue, holds Exemplar Cloud, is already public, and is in production. Exascale does have real/fast-growing audited revenue but at a fraction of BRUN's scale and with a tiny capital base. SHAZ has the least delivered revenue and is technically shrinking YoY, though the numbers are so small it's basically noise right now.

$BRUN
- FY25 revenue: $26.89M (+239%)
- Valuation: ~78x P/S, 5.6x mktcap/ARR target
- Capital raised: ~$134M de-SPAC (no redemptions; net lower after seller note + fees)
- Backlog: $940M contracted, majority already in production - Validation: NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud (Blackwell) - Main risk: margin/FCF claims unaudited pending first 10-Q + de-SPAC share unlock

$SHAZ
- FY25 revenue: $1.57M (Q1'26 -9.6% YoY)
- Valuation: ~828x P/S, EV/TCV 0.6x
- Capital raised: ~$549M ($125M IPO + $350M convert + $74M TCDC sale)
- Backlog: $2.2B TCV, revenue starts Q3-Q4'26
- Validation: NVIDIA Cloud Partner, NEXTDC colo
- Main risk: backlog conversion + execution/quality + ~23% dilution

$BCAR (SPAC merging with Exascale Labs, lists as $XLAB)
- FY25 revenue: $7.0M (+438%), ~$13.6M run-rate (June fiscal year-end)
- Valuation: ~46x EV/run-rate, ~90x EV/FY25 rev
- Capital raised: ~$14.1M SAFEs pre-deal; up to ~$280M trust if it closes with low redemptions
- Backlog: $300M pipeline (non-binding)
- Validation: audited S-4 but with going-concern flag, no fairness opinion, NVIDIA tier not disclosed, crypto-VC backers, claims 22 enterprise customers
- Main risk: deal close + redemptions + going concern + execution/quality

NFA but all three could do well, especially if $SHAZ and $BCAR/$XLAB show they can stand up quality clusters at good margins. For now $BRUN is the one with the most execution proof, and CEO Andrew Karos's background scaling low-latency HPC infrastructure (Blue Fire Capital) shows. Just be mindful BRUN likely has a de-SPAC lockup/share unlock coming up.

For what it is worth I have tiny positions in $SHAZ $BCAR and will add if they execute. Meanwhile my $BRUN position is as big as my $IREN position [though both are small compared to $NBIS (huge) and $CRWV (medium and adding)].

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

@Yeah_Dave Thanks - just started looking at it today with a small spec position and learning on the fly. This is very helpful.

BTW - have you looked at $BCAR?

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Getting to feel like an anomaly if several positions in the portfolio aren't up +10%-20% every single day.

The mandate shifts to identifying which assets are generational & worth snatching up as compounding long-term holds. It mirrors what selecting prime real estate used to be.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

@SharkSociety_ https://t.co/X1dwEdEDEm

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

@ClimbClimbHigh I don't have a strong opinion on DGXX specifically. For a core position, I like coming up with a thesis and then looking to see which company would inflect if that thesis is correct. Therefore I usually avoid derivative or second order plays.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Some thoughts on the baby Neoclouds $BRUN vs $SHAZ. Getting asked about it a fair bit.

Similar marketcaps ($1.4B/$2B). Both are on the same Neocloud business model spectrum (with $CRWV in the middle and $NBIS/$IREN on the opposite side).

Very different risk/reward.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Putting bull market shenanigans aside, $BRUN >> $SHAZ at these market caps.

Same Neocloud model on both (asset-light real estate, asset-heavy on GPUs).

The $SHAZ street estimates are mostly made up.

Consensus has FY2027 revenue at $1.201B. But the two take-or-pay contracts everyone points to (ESDS $1.25B + APAC $950M) only add up to ~$440M/yr at full run-rate. So consensus is baking in 2.7x the contracted run-rate, which means ~$761M (63%) of that 2027 number is revenue from business SHAZ hasn't signed yet. The "1.9x EV/EBITDA" people keep quoting is assuming they nearly triple the backlog AND deploy all of it.

The ramp is fantasy land too. Revenue up 93x from 2025 to 2026, then 766x by 2027? Their actual Q1 2026 gross margin was NEGATIVE 78.8%, and consensus needs it at ~66% by 2027 (with EBITDA margins north of 60%). That's a ~145-point gross-margin flip in 12-18 months. With about 30 employees deploying multiple GPU clusters flawlessly. How??

And the forward EV/EBITDA is also a bit of a magic trick. It divides today's EV by 2027's EBITDA and pretends the balance sheet stays frozen. It won't. ESDS alone is tied to ~$720M of capex. Near-term commitments (~$812M) are well above available capital (~$514M), so there's roughly a $300M hole that probably gets filled with equity. That's ~23% dilution before you even reach 2027. The "cheap" multiple sits on a share count that doesn't exist yet, and the EV that actually produces $749M of EBITDA is going to be a lot bigger than $1.39B.

These street "analysts" 🙄 ....

BRUN, by contrast: ~17x the delivered revenue, growing instead of shrinking, backlog already in production, basically no debt, and cheaper on every metric that uses revenue you can actually see today. It's not flawless (thin cash, info is the de-SPAC margin claims still need a clean 10-Q), but they are executing with backlog already in production, and it earned $NVDA Exemplar Cloud status on Blackwell, the same performance certification $CRWV, $NBIS, Azure/$MSFT, and $ORCL hold.

Could SHAZ pull it off? Sure, it's possible. But you're betting on heroic, totally unproven execution just to make the math work. I'd rather own the one already doing it. I told the vampire people as much 🤷‍♂️

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Putting bull market shenanigans aside, $BRUN >> $SHAZ at these market caps.

Same Neocloud model on both (asset-light real estate, asset-heavy on GPUs).

The $SHAZ street estimates are mostly made up.

Consensus has FY2027 revenue at $1.201B. But the two take-or-pay contracts everyone points to (ESDS $1.25B + APAC $950M) only add up to ~$440M/yr at full run-rate. So consensus is baking in 2.7x the contracted run-rate, which means ~$761M (63%) of that 2027 number is revenue from business SHAZ hasn't signed yet. The "1.9x EV/EBITDA" people keep quoting is assuming they nearly triple the backlog AND deploy all of it.

The ramp is fantasy land too. Revenue up 93x from 2025 to 2026, then 766x by 2027? Their actual Q1 2026 gross margin was NEGATIVE 78.8%, and consensus needs it at ~66% by 2027 (with EBITDA margins north of 60%). That's a ~145-point gross-margin flip in 12-18 months. With about 30 employees deploying multiple GPU clusters flawlessly. How??

And the forward EV/EBITDA is also a bit of a magic trick. It divides today's EV by 2027's EBITDA and pretends the balance sheet stays frozen. It won't. ESDS alone is tied to ~$720M of capex. Near-term commitments (~$812M) are well above available capital (~$514M), so there's roughly a $300M hole that probably gets filled with equity. That's ~23% dilution before you even reach 2027. The "cheap" multiple sits on a share count that doesn't exist yet, and the EV that actually produces $749M of EBITDA is going to be a lot bigger than $1.39B.

These street "analysts" 🙄 ....

BRUN, by contrast: ~17x the delivered revenue, growing instead of shrinking, backlog already in production, basically no debt, and cheaper on every metric that uses revenue you can actually see today. It's not flawless (thin cash, info is the de-SPAC margin claims still need a clean 10-Q), but they are executing with backlog already in production, and it earned $NVDA Exemplar Cloud status on Blackwell, the same performance certification $CRWV, $NBIS, Azure/$MSFT, and $ORCL hold.

Could SHAZ pull it off? Sure, it's possible. But you're betting on heroic, totally unproven execution just to make the math work. I'd rather own the one already doing it. I told the vampire people as much 🤷‍♂️

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Imagine the insane run we could have had if the SkyWater $SKYT board hadn't sold out for a quick buck😒

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

$SKYT SkyWater

I am out of this position for a ~2.25x gain.

There is still a decent chance the US Gov or a serious buyer gets involved, but that takes time. Plus, the upside is likely capped now that ownership has anchored the price at $35.

$IONQ just bought three fabs, while narrowing $SKYT's potential, undercutting the domestic onshoring vision, and significantly limiting the customer base. This likely becomes a huge money pit, but I guess it’s easy to throw around other people's money.

I get they want to be "the $NVDA of Quantum," but maybe have a scalable product first before you buy three different types of chip fabs?

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

$NBIS

Apparently no lessons were learned.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

$NBIS pushing into price discovery.

I try not to criticize, but seeing long-term holders & article writers selling covered calls on every move up is baffling. Why effectively short into price discovery for relative pocket change? On a company you know is undervalued no less.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Unless I am mistaken there is a stock performance unlock coming up. "The closing price of BRUN common stock equals or exceeds $12.00 per share (as adjusted for splits, etc.) for any 20 trading days within any 30-trading day period commencing after the closing"

That could be as early as the end of this week or early next.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Unless I am mistaken there is a stock performance unlock coming up. "The closing price of BRUN common stock equals or exceeds $12.00 per share (as adjusted for splits, etc.) for any 20 trading days within any 30-trading day period commencing after the closing"

That could be as early as the end of this week or early next.

[YeahDave @Yeah_Dave]

Yup, been hoovering up the Token Factories. I like that $BRUN is an actual AI cloud (and Exemplar rated at that). The prior experience scaling low latency HPC infrastructure shows, should command a premium. Quality data centers are very hard.

Have to watch the post-SPAC unlock.

[leki ⚔️ @mkfilko]

@Yeah_Dave You’re in $BRUN. Holy shit.