SarcasticByte

Tech enthusiast, truth seeker, and humor lover. Navigating the digital world with a dash of sarcasm and a sprinkle of curiosity.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce):

- SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers

- Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers

Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see.

$TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic.

Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC.

Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@DrAlhenawi The bottom will be within a year after the Hype of the IPO

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@TrustlessState Wtf are you doing? I would’ve bought DRAM!!!

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@TrustlessState @RyanSAdams

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@aleabitoreddit Thank you master Jedi

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@aleabitoreddit

[Musolsol.𝟎𝐱𝐔 @MMMusol]

Serenity @aleabitoreddit 股神树莓派真的是教科书级别的打脸了

今天刚好好好捋了一下树莓派这波行情。不仅是从宏观，而是从Serenity的视角去理解——他到底看到了什么，为什么他能���所有人都不看好的时候精准抓住这个机会。

先说一下当时的处境

2026年2月的树莓派，说实话就是一个被市场遗忘的票。股价趴在发行价下面整整半年，一年跌了56%，市值缩到5.4亿欧元，历史新低。

分析师？没一个看好的。

华尔街给的营收增长预期是14-17%，基本就是“这公司还活着但也就这样了”的态度。

然后2月16号，Serenity 发了条推文。
标题很随意——“Fun Trade Idea: Long $RPI”。

就这么一条推文，两天之内树莓派涨了将近90%。

他的逻辑到底是什么？

反复看了他从2月到5月所有关于 $RPI 的推文，把他的思��拆开来看，核心其实就一句话：同样的需求冲击，打在不同体量的公司身上，财务影响是天差地别的。

展开说说，当时硅谷圈OpenClaw特别火，大家都在囤硬件来跑它的各种变体——PicoClaw、NanoClaw 什么的。最开始大家囤的是 Apple Mac Mini，这事儿很多人都知道。

但 Serenity 想到了一层别人没想到的：苹果是3.7万亿美元的公司，你囤一万台 Mac Mini 对它的营收来说连个零头都算不上。

树莓派呢？5.4亿市值。

同样是被囤货，同样是需求暴增，放在苹果身上是噪音，放在树莓派身上就是实打实的营收变化。

这个不对称性，是整个观点的灵魂。

他还注意到一个很有意思的现象：以前买树莓派的人，都是��生或者爱好者，一次买一两块玩玩。但 OpenClaw 出来之后，硅谷的创业公司和个人开始一次买几十块甚至上百块，用来跑并发的 AI agent swarms。树莓派的可寻址市场一夜之间扩大了一个量级——从“教育硬件”变成了“AI 编排硬件”。

有人质疑说为什么不直接用 AWS 开虚拟机？

Serenity 的回答也很实在：很多 AI bot 的应用场景涉及平台 TOS 限制，比如在 Reddit 上跑自动化营销这种，你用公有云人家一查 IP 就封你，所以必须本地部署。树莓派便宜、隔离、可以大批量买，完美适配这个需求。

定量预测——这才是真正牛的地方

光说逻辑谁都会，但 Serenity 给了具体数字。他说如果囤货趋��持续，树莓派的营收增长可能从华尔街预期的14%飙到48-55%。

当时看到这个数字我其实觉得挺激进的。华尔街共识14%，你说能到55%？差了快四倍。

结果呢？3月31号财报出来，营收增长58%。

58%。比他自己预测的55%还高。比华尔街预期的14%高了四倍多。

说实话看到这个数字的时候我是有点震撼的，不是说他运气好蒙对了——他的预测框架是有逻辑支撑的：消费者业务占营收三分之一，OpenClaw 带来的新增购买量是可以估算的，树莓派在廉价开发板领域几乎是垄断地位（因为以前没人有动力去竞争教育市场）。这些加在一起，48-55%的预测其实是有根据的。

说回媒体的反应

推文发出后两天，Reuters、Bloomberg、The Guardian 都报道了。但紧接着，Financial Times 和 The Telegraph 的反应是什么？

给树莓派贴了个“Meme Stock”的标签。

The Telegraph 直接说这是“mass stupidity”。
一个欧洲媒体说 RPI 的股价会“crash back to reality”。

Serenity 当时就很火大。他反复强调的是：这跟 GME 那种轧空完全不是一回事。他的论点从头到尾都是基本面驱动的——营收增长、TAM 扩张、估值便宜。

他原文里甚至列了资产负债表的数字：280-300M 营收，75M+毛利，25%毛利率，净现金28M。

这哪里像 meme stock 了？

但媒体不管这些。一个小众标的突然暴涨，他们的第一反应就是贴标签。这其实恰恰说明了为什么这个机会存在——因为没人认真研究过这家公司。

树莓派在大众认知里就是个“教育小玩具”，怎么可能是正经投资标的呢？

到了5月份财报验证之后，那些写过“mass stupidity”的媒体全都装没事发生。Serenity ��5月28号的推文里专门截了当时那些文章的图，问了一句：媒体写了这些诽谤性的东西，结果被打脸了，怎么就能假装什么都没发生？

讲真，这个问题我也想问题哈哈哈

回过头来看这整件事，我觉得 Serenity 真正厉害的地方不是他发现了 OpenClaw 这个趋势。说实话当时推特上到处都在讨论 OpenClaw，这不是什么秘密信息。

他厉害的地方在于转译能力——把“产品层面的需求变化”翻译成“具体公司的财务影响”，然后精准定位到一个市值足够小、能被这个需求实质性撬动的标的。

这种能力其实很稀缺。大部分人看到 OpenClaw 火了，想到的是“AI 好牛”或者“苹果受益”。

不过能想到“等等，树莓派也是个上市公司，而且市值只有5亿”的人，真的不多。

还有一点我很欣赏的是他的风险认知：他自己说了，主要风险是 OpenClaw 可能只是短期潮流，不是结构性需求。另外上游 LPDDR4内存涨价也会压缩利润。

所以他只是小仓位参与，没有 all-in。

这种态度反而让我更信任他的判断。一个人如果对自己的论点过于自信、重仓押注，我反而会怀疑他是不是在给自己的持仓喊单。但 Serenity 从头到尾都很坦诚：这是个有意思的机会，逻辑说得通，但不确定性也在，所以仓位控制好。

从估值角度算一笔账来看：财报前树莓派大概2x forward sales。一个年增长58%、有实际利润的硬件公司，2倍远期市销率。放在美股，同等增速的公司随便给你10-15倍。

就算打个折考虑到欧洲市场的折价和小盘股流动性问题，2倍也太便宜了。

他在3月31号财报后算的估值更有意思：2026年 forward P/E 大概20倍，2027年13倍，2028年不到10倍。

对于一个还在加速增长的公司来说，这个估值真的不贵。

这个案例让我想到一个更大的问题：市场上有多少这样的机会——一个真实的需求变化已经在发生，但因为标的太小众、太边缘，没有分析师覆盖，没有机构关注，所以定价完全没有反映现实？

Serenity 说了一句话我印象很深：“people just forgot Raspberry Pi was a publicly traded stock”

人们只是忘了树莓派还是个上市公司。

就是这么简单。有时候最大的 alpha 不是来自什么高深的模型或者内幕消息，而是来自一个所有人都看得到、但没人费心去想的连接。

共勉

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

What's happening in the MLCC market

First off, MLCC as a whole is a $15B market. MLCCs for servers were a $1.3B market in 2025 ($600m for AI servers, $700m for general servers)
The AI server MLCC market is growing at 80%+ CAGR, and the general server MLCC market will also accelerate due to agentic AI increasing CPU demand (around 30%-40% CAGR)
We will see negative growth in the smartphone/mobile MLCC market for at least 2026-27.
Humanoids are another future high-growth market for MLCCs
Book-to-bill ratio for most MLCC suppliers is over 1 now

Reasons for price hikes-
High Nickel & Silver are affecting all segments
There is a supply-demand mismatch in the high-end (high capacitance, high voltage) segment, which is used in autos & servers
High-end MLCC lead time is over 20 weeks
Spot/distributor prices have increased by 20%-40% for low capacitance & consumer device MLCCs due to hoarding and double booking, especially in China
OEM contracts have not seen large price hikes yet

What's happening now:
Rapid capacity expansion happening across the industry
Murata expects blended ASP prices to remain flat (ASP going down in consumer electronics, expansion in AI server market)
Tier 1 players like Murata, Taiyo Yuden, SEMCO building capacity to serve AI server MLCC market
This will create opportunities for Tier 2/3 and Chinese suppliers to expand in the mid to low end market (Macronix effect)

Future:
MLCC production equiment & raw materials suppliers will be the biggest beneficiary of this CAPEX boom
MLCC producer stocks have performed well, and it is finally spilling to raw material/equipment producers
I expect them to outperform MLCC producers now

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@kevinxu Grifter 😒

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

Hyperdramopticalquantum

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Hyperdramliquid

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️U.S. outperformance is real, durable, and more structurally important than most people want to admit.

America is winning because it can metabolize chaos faster than everyone else.

That is the whole secret.

Europe is optimized for preservation.

America is optimized for mutation.

Europe protects the existing social model. America lets capital, talent, fraud, ambition, violence, speculation, startups, monopolies, bubbles, immigrants, engineers, universities, military spending, energy production, and financial markets collide until something enormous breaks through.

That produces ugliness. It also produces scale.

The U.S. can create OpenAI, Nvidia, SpaceX, Tesla, Palantir, Anduril, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, BlackRock, shale, Bitcoin infrastructure, venture capital networks, and world-dominating financial markets in the same civilizational machine. Europe can produce excellent engineers, beautiful cities, strong welfare states, industrial champions, and high living standards. But it struggles to create world-eating firms in the new layers of power.

That is the gap.

The Economist is late because this was visible years ago. The 2020s did not create U.S. dominance. They exposed the compounding. AI, cloud, energy, defense tech, capital markets, reserve currency privilege, fiscal capacity, demographic absorption, and China’s slowdown all pushed the world’s marginal capital back toward America.

The biggest structural advantage is the dollar. The U.S. issues the asset the world needs in crisis, then uses that privilege to finance deficits, defense, liquidity, innovation, and consumption. Everyone complains about U.S. excess. Then they buy U.S. assets when the world gets dangerous.

That is empire mechanics.

Europe’s problem is deeper than weak growth. It has lost speed. Too much regulation, too little risk, aging populations, expensive energy, fragmented capital markets, weak tech platforms, defense dependence, demographic tension, and political systems designed to block extremes rather than produce new engines. Europe is not dead. But it is increasingly downstream of American tech, American defense, American liquidity, and American risk appetite.

America’s contradiction is brutal: the system is globally dominant while many households feel poorer, angrier, and less secure.

That is why people miss the signal. They look at broken housing, debt, health care, crime anxiety, inflation, political dysfunction, and conclude America is failing. At the household layer, many things are degrading. At the system-power layer, America is pulling further ahead.

Both are true.

Markets care more about the system-power layer until social breakdown starts impairing earnings, labor, politics, or bond confidence.

So the real investment implication is clear: U.S. assets keep attracting global capital because the U.S. still owns the future-facing engines. AI, defense, energy, software, capital markets, and hard-asset monetary escape routes remain American-centered.

Europe can rally cyclically.

America owns the structural premium.

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@BG2Pod At least we need it to be 2 hours to cover everything

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@TheProfInvestor What the expiration on the Puts?

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

• MicroLED → “most overhyped” right now; calls it “a hoax” with seven objectively better alternatives.
• onsemi → skeptical on their vertical GaN claims (“just slides, no data sheets, no actual specs”).
• MatX → doesn’t have enough information; “maybe it’s good, but I don’t know anything about them.”
• Bloom Energy → notes traditional energy investors are short it (thinking it’s too expensive vs. natural gas), but he explains why that’s misguided given AI power constraints.
Neutral / not enough info / no strong opinion:
• Terafab, Amkor, Ibiden, Unimicron, Fujikura, Besi, Camtek, Onto (he prefers Rigaku over them), etc.
He also notes the overall AI supply chain is constrained across everything (memory, indium phosphide, logic, power, etc.), with memory and indium phosphide having worsened in the last 6 months

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

Here’s a comprehensive, deduplicated list in roughly the order they appear (focusing on named companies/startups; generic references like “hyperscalers,” “memory makers,” or “fabs” are excluded unless a specific name is given):
• Accelerator / AI chip companies: Positron, Cerebras, MatX, Taalas
• Fabs / foundries: TSMC, Intel, Samsung
• Memory / DRAM / HBM: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
• Indium phosphide / optics / lasers supply chain: Lumentum, Coherent, Sumitomo, AXT, IQE, Aixtron (AIXTRON)
• Power semiconductors: Texas Instruments (TI), Navitas, onsemi, Infineon, Wolfspeed
• Solid-state transformer / power delivery players: SolarEdge, Enphase Energy, Delta Electronics, Vertiv, Eaton
• Neocloud / cloud providers: CoreWeave, Oracle, Nebius
• Other / packaging / semicap / networking: Terafab, Amkor, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nokia, Infinera, Ciena, Besi, Rigaku, Camtek, Onto Innovation (Onto), Tower Semiconductor (Tower Semi), Semtech, MACOM, Fujikura, GE Vernova, Bloom Energy (Bloom), Arista (XPO reference)
(Nvidia is referenced in passing for products like Rubin, but not analyzed as an investment.)
Irrational Analysis’s expressed views (“he” in the interview)
He gives direct opinions on several names (positive, negative, or neutral/caveated). Here’s the breakdown based on what he says explicitly:
Bullish / very positive / “big fan” / owns or most excited about:
• Positron and Cerebras → “very big fan” for inference (among the top alternatives for training/inference in 3–5 years). On Cerebras specifically: loves the company overall, is buying shares, calls it a stock he wants to be “an activist investor” in, but has pointed criticisms (FP16 instead of FP4, IO/KV cache issues, packaging yields). Still net bullish and wants it to improve.
• Lumentum (preferred way to play indium phosphide shortage) + broader indium phosphide chain (AIXTRON, AXT, etc.).
• Wolfspeed → very interesting / high-conviction power semis play; sees 5× upside potential if utilization rebounds (vertically integrated, overbuilt capacity, new 10kV SiC part looks strong for infrastructure/solid-state transformers outside the data center).
• GE Vernova → owns a lot of shares; calls it a “high-quality moat” in gas turbines; “never selling.”
• Rigaku → his “most exciting” name in the long-only book (X-ray inspection for advanced packaging moving from R&D to production).
• Semtech → “most exciting” in his trading account; duopoly with MACOM but Semtech parts are superior; works across copper, PCBs, linear pluggable optics, transceivers, near-package optics, etc.; “has a lot more room to run.”
• Nokia (and to some extent Infinera) → likes as a reasonable-value play / cheaper alternative to Ciena.
• Power semis broadly (TI and Navitas tied for #1 in GaN; power delivery outside the data center is “arguably more interesting” than inside).
• Memory makers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) → all will sell everything they make at high margins due to severe shortages; differences are “frankly dumb” to over-focus on.
• Logic fabs broadly (TSMC, Intel, Samsung) → situation is bad but has improved somewhat.
He also likes the engineering/economics of Taalas (if the premise works) and calls the indium phosphide shortage “insane” / “really, really bad” (bullish for the supply-chain names above).
Not bullish / skeptical / bearish:
• Taalas → engineering is “super, super clever” and economics could be “amazing” / “incredible performance at dirt cheap prices,” but he does not believe in the premise (fixed/hard-coded weights + limited fine-tuning via LoRA). Thinks AI companies won’t tolerate the constraint of mostly static weights given how fast models change. He “shills them a little bit” only because the tech is cool.
• Neoclouds (CoreWeave and smaller ones especially) → “kind of” still bearish; “bad business”; smaller ones most likely to struggle or “die” when debt/interest rates bite or shortages raise costs.

[Citrini @citrini]

This was a great read

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

I think he nailed it

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

https://t.co/Ufde4JAt7j

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@dampedspring @aleabitoreddit

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list:

- $OUST
- Rainbow Robotics (277810)
- $AMBA
- Ubtech Robotics
- $MKA
- Nextronics
- $SYM
- Harmonic Drive (6324)
- $VPG
- Beijing Geekplus
- $MBLY
- $ARBE
- Nabtesco (6268)
- $SERV
- $HSYDF
- Robotstrategy
- $ZBRA
- $CATL
- $ABB
- $BOT
- Unitree (not public yet)
- $LSCC
- Esunny Robot (300024)
- $NOVT
- $RR
- $PDY
- Hesai (2525)
- $SHA.DE
- $XBOT
- $XPEV
- $BAM
- $ALNT
- 6268.T
- $AMBQ
- $ATOM
- $MRAM
- $ISRG
- $HLIT
- Robosense (2498)
- $HG
- $ACUVI
- $CGNX
- $KLIC
- $BSL
- $AEVA
- $AUR
- $CTH.V
- $IMSR
- $NEO
- $KDK
- $MRLN
- $KITT
- $INDI
- $NOVT

Off the top of my head:

Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most.

Will start doing DD into mentions.

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@DrewVento Pussy index went up too, GL!

[반보 @Banbo_Insight]

[한국 주식 주도주 정리 - $IBKR 외국인 친구들을 위한 가이드 🇰🇷]

1. 반도체
$MU 가 PER 20배 넘어가는데 SK하이닉스($000660.KS) 아직 12배? 13배정도 되었나 이제?
같은 HBM 칩 만드는데 우편번호만 다름.
Korean = NO.1 반도체. 그냥 사면 됨.

- SK하이닉스 $000660.KS - HBM 세계 1위, 엔비디아 최대 공급사. 설��� 끝.
- 삼성전자 $005930.KS - 폰+칩+가전을 $MU 밸류에이션으로 살 수 있음. 이게 말이 됨?
- SK스퀘어 $402340.KS - SK하이닉스 지분 들고 있는 지주사. 하이닉스 고베타픽. 할인된 가격에 하이닉스 사는 느낌.
소형잡주도 좀 적어보자면
- 파두 $440110.KQ - SSD 컨트롤러 만드는데 스페이스X 공급망에 엮여있음. 소형주 로켓.
- 인텍플러스 $064290.KQ - 반도체 외관검사 장비. 인텔 공급망 노출. 곡괭이 삽 플레이.

2. 금융주
$IBKR 이 한국 주식을 전 세계에 열어줬음.
그 통행료 받는 게 누구냐? 한국 증권사들임. $IBKR 이 얘네 대신 돈 벌어주는 구조.

- 삼성증권 $016360.KS - $IBKR 유일한 공식 중개 브로커. 독점임. 끝.
- 유안타증권 $003470.KS - 그 다음 IBKR 수혜주. 대만계 모회사라 글로벌 브릿지.
- 미래에셋증권 $006800.KS - 스페이스X 지분 직접 투자까지 함. 호재 덩어리.
- 키움증권 $039490.KS - 한국 개인투자자 거래량 1위. 한국판 로빈후드인데 수익은 진짜 남.(토스증권이 찐이긴하지만...비상장)
- 추가로 4대 금융지주(KB금융 $105560.KS, 신한지주 $055550.KS, 하나금융지주 $086790.KS, 우리금융지주 $316140.KS, 메리츠금융지주 $138040.KS)도 밸류업 정책 수혜로 결국 좋은 소식 올 것 같음.

3. 광통신
$CPO $LITE $CIEN 좋아하는 너네들 들어봐.
걔네 공급망에 한국 애들이 엮여있는데 아직 아무도 모름.

- 대한광통신 $010170.KQ - 이름이 직관적. Korea Fiber Optics. 더 설명 필요함?
- 오이솔루션 $138080.KQ - OI = Optical Interconnect. 한국어로 읽으면 오이(���)임.
- RF머트리얼즈 $327260.KQ - RF/광학 소재 만드는 회사. 재료 파는 쪽이라 마진 좋음.

4. 유리기판
AI 칩이 고도화될수록 실리콘 기판이 한계에 부딪힘.
유리기판이 그 다음 세대인데 한국이 이걸 먼저 잡았음.
코스닥이 이미 난리났고 우리는 아직 초입임.

- SKC $011790.KS - 한국 유리기판 대장주. 이 섹터 얘기할 때 빠지면 안 됨.
- 필옵틱스 $161580.KQ - 유리기판 가공 장비. 삼성 DS 부문이랑 합동 제안서 낸 사이.
- 켐트로닉스 $357780.KQ - 유리 인터포저 소재. 필옵틱스랑 세트로 묶어서 보면 됨.
- 기가비스 $420770.KQ - 유리기판 검사 장비. 칩 하나 만들 때마다 얘 매출 나옴.

5. 반도체 소부장 (소재·부품·장비)
- 한국 소부장 = 아무도 얘기 안 하는 Tier-1 공급사들.
K-반도체 골드러시의 곡괭이랑 삽 파는 애들.
- 테스 $095610.KQ - PECVD/CVD 장비. 삼성전자·SK하이닉스랑 ��세대 장비 공동개발 중.
- ISC $095340.KQ - 반도체 테스트 소켓. 칩 만들면 무조건 테스트해야 함. 반복 매출 구조.

6. 지주사 플레이 (밸류업)
한국 정부가 지금 상장사들한테 자사주 소각하고 주주환원 하라고 드라이브 엄청 걸고 있음.
지주사들 NAV 대비 40~60% 할인된 채로 거래되는 애들 많음. 정책이 먹히면 그냥 공짜 수익임.
반도체 + 지주사 1타2피 픽:
- 두산 $000150.KS - 지주사인데 반도체/에너지 사업 리스트럭처링 중. 가치 unlock 기대.
- LS $006260.KS - 지주사인데 LS일렉트릭(전력 인프라) + 소재 사업까지 엮임. 요즘 핫.
전통 지주사 밸류업 후보:
- SK Inc. $034730.KS
- 한화 $000880.KS
- CJ $001040.KS

이정도? 요새 코스피가 난리인데, 한국 주식시장이 외국형들한테 열리는것 같아서 좋은 기회라 생각해서 정리해봤어.
한국 시장에 대해서 관심 있거나 궁금한 주식, 정보, 기업 등 있���면 팔로우 하고 소통하자구.
웰컴 😍

[SarcasticByte @Yhamwi]

@aleabitoreddit Seriously thank you for all your wisdom and insight 🤍🤍🤍