Bitcoin has not tracked global M2 with a ~70-day lag since early May.
Gold has followed global M2 with near 1:1 sensitivity.
A tale of cross-asset correlations amidst secular dollar weakness and geopolitical risk.
Gold is high beta risk-off, BTC is high beta risk-on.
Lots of you have been asking for the updated Global M2 vs. Bitcoin chart. Well, here it is…
And yes – it still tells the same story:
We’re going higher…
Excellent speech! "There's no room for firewalls!"
Die beeindruckende Rede von @JDVance in München - natürlich ohne jeden Applaus von CDU, CSU, SPD & Grünen - jetzt ansehen und anhören. Mit deutschen Untertiteln! #Sicherheitskonferenz
Musings of the Day, 2/2/25:
Despite serious volatility in coming days/weeks, the sheer asymmetry in Balance of Trade between the US and tariffed countries will demand a quick resolution imho.
Tariffs, as a Demand Rationing/Redirection Tool, are just the Sticks in Trump’s Stick-Before-Carrot approach to arriving at a broader Trade/Border Security deal, and the countries calling his bluff will have to face the mathematical reality of those asymmetries.
As a result, I don’t believe these Tariffs last more than 1-2 months before cooler heads come to the table.
Welcome to FAFO Trade Diplomacy.
Hello world,
this is a message from Germany.
Our stupid government has invited millions of migrants without vetting them, we have tax-funded NGOs playing cab on the Mediterranean instead of rescuing them back to their shores, a huge asylum industry that thrives on renting out apartments and building houses for these migrants, other tax-funded NGOs monitoring everything we say so they can report us so we are being sued into bankruptcy, and our security bodies who have more to do with people questioning this madness than trying anything to keep Germany safe.
But it gets even more insane: We secure kindergartens and public swimming pools with barbed wire (no joke), public events with 'Merkel Lego', which hasn't helped at all, as you could tragically see in Magdeburg, and on top of that we have knife free zones that prohibit knives and other weapons to be carried at certain times. Our borders are still wide open, but this level of security that we need there is being implemented on our streets and ironically life is becoming increasingly dangerous.
That is the extent of the madness in Germany. If you criticize this too much, the self-proclaimed democrats want to put you in gulag and they want to ban the AfD, millions of Germans vote.
Please share what is going on here. The world needs to see this.
when everything is red, it's market bottom.
If you told me a year ago, #btc at 65K and we are fking two weeks from eth etf! BUT CT is DEAD.
NOBODY WOULD BELIEVE YOU.
I literally don't give a shit. You want a 10X, but can't handle a - 50%. What logic is that? It's a feature, not a bug.
Every data point I have is UP. Go read up on how much US Treasury Bills will be issued starting THIS WEEK. Think about it. $35 trillion debt. They need to service the debt. I'm long. Fking long. Low leveraged long. I'm hard long, as long as a chinese pp long will go. This market bull run is NOT OVER.
$ETH supply dynamics + massive shilling of tokenization will bring us to levels not seen before.
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It's time to be in 50% cash ( moving from 30% from my top of market call )
https://t.co/lUKjnvR9YQ
First I want to say, we had a massive run. Be grateful. If you’re not, fuck off. Today announcement from Bank of Japan ( BoJ ) has moved my “sell in Mid Apr” to NOW.
🔶We know liquidity will be reduced from Apr and there might be front running.
I've mentioned it here:
https://t.co/k79AYI13fu
🔶Today BoJ's decision of exiting out of negative rates + ending YCC
🔶I’m not touching alt coins ( explained before ), only majors ( #BTC / #ETH ) will be adjusted.
Notes on BoJ
🔶Japan biggest creditor of the world, wants capital to flow back to Japan.
🔶Interest rate 0% - 0.1% will move capital back for sure. As commercial real estate world wide is dead, Japan looking pretty decent.
🔶Yen carry trade is dead. Negative impact on euro and usd ( negative liquidity )
🔶Japan’s MOF probably directed BOJ to bring the money back
🔶Yield Curve Control is gone
This feels like a margin call on the world
Net impact
🔶Selling of US assets
🔶Stocks + Bonds will drop
🔶Crypto will likely follow short term
🔶My best guess is some sort of crisis needs to happen so Fed can be dovish. Maybe June Pivot.
Regarding this tweet: https://t.co/gp9dEAVrvc
#BTC 65K call wall was nicely defended for 2 days until BOJ’s decision. It’s too big for crypto to absorb, on top of the slowing of inflows from ETF.
_____
At the same time, I’m found of most bullish project to be launching. In my opinion, top 10. Easy. I’m trying all ways to accumulate it via OTC. I will share more about it in the future, I’m not front running you ever and never, you can’t buy it, I can’t buy it. It’s not launched.
Stay cautious, I’ve been warning you guys over several tweets. When normies start to get interested, it’s the ultimate top signal. Nuke them, rinse and repeat.
Max fuckery is always the path.
Also, glad I moved you guys to partial profit taking at the peak. When I think we can start buying again, I'll let you know.
$SAVM staking is now live 🔥
Users can now aggregate any asset on Ethereum into $SAVM while bridging.
Here is how to stake $SAVM for $BTC yield (currently 265% APY) 👇🏼
We are proud to announce the SatoshiVM alpha-mainnet is live!
$SAVM staking & BTC yield goes live on March 17th.
Below, we will break down how to connect, bridge and more.
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Highly requested, so here’s my market prediction short to mid term.
TLDR: Mildly Bullish / choppy till mid apr / may. Then down till June. Overall still bullish year, expecting money printer to start in June.
If you strip away all the noise and dive down to 1st principles, government prints more = price goes up. So deep diving into policy and understand the monetary direction both short and long term is important.
Money flow goes something like that: Monetary policy leads liquidity leads crypto leads tradfi leads GDP
Policy side: Jan to Mar 2024, expects to borrow $760 billion ( Good ) Apr to Jun 2024, expects to borrow $202 billion ( bad ). Rate of change negative.
This aligns with my thesis of max fuckery. Markets always do the opposite of expectation. As retail gets sucked into bitcoin halving narrative = bullish, my expectation is bitcoin halving is sell the news event.
I’m awaiting new data on the May 1st for projection after June. However my assessment is interest rates will cut in June, together with more borrowing for the rest of the year. We moon 2nd half of the year.
There’s also evidence coming from China PBoC has slowed down the pace of printing as the economy looks like it’s recovering. Part of the data why we could be see a small correction.
There’s of course tons more policy data, I’m monitoring it and I will sound the alarm when the time comes. We are far from danger zone so all dips are for buying. And remember, it’s never wrong taking profit along the way up. That’s why we are in this game. If you have emotional attachments to your investment, that’s normie retarded behaviour and we know statically it never ends well.
You want to make $$ like the way I do? Follow successful people who made it, not retards who has got nothing to show for.