$BTC: Report of the Century:
Today I am making one of the biggest announcements since I sold the top in September 2025. I am taking profit on every single crypto short. The Bitcoin short built between $115,000 and $125,000 is closed now with a gigantic gain. The $80,500 short, built between $79,000 and $82,000, is closed with another massive profit. The 100+ altcoin shorts I opened over the last several months are also closed, locking in another enormous win on top. The time of drinking tea is over. Congratulations to everyone who ignored the noise, trusted the framework and followed me from September 2025 until today.
Buying Bitcoin Spot:
For the first time since September 2025, I am buying Bitcoin spot again. Today, I entered at $64,000 for the absolute long term. For the first time since 9 Months I am buying Bitcoin for the long term! It is the beginning of a structured accumulation strategy, and I will execute it with the same discipline that allowed me to sell the top.
The Accumulation Strategy
Everyone who followed my strategy at $115,000–$125,000 remembers exactly how it worked. Every day Bitcoin traded inside that zone, I sold 10% of my spot position and added shorts. I did not care whether BTC was at $116,000, $120,000 or $124,000. Now I am doing the exact same thing in reverse. Every day Bitcoin remains between $54,000 and $64,000, I will buy 5% of my allocated capital in spot Bitcoin. Not 10% this time, but 5%, because I want to spread the accumulation across a wider period! If Bitcoin stays at $62,000, I buy. If it falls to $58,000, I buy. If it drops to $56,000, I buy. If it wicks into $54,000, I become more aggressive. If it returns to $64,000, I still buy. As long as Bitcoin remains inside this zone of 54-64k I am buying every day with 5% of my entire capital limited to 20 days.
The Technical Zone and Sentiment Shift
The legendary weekly MA200 sits in this region and is now being tested from below. Bitcoin already reached the lower section of this area last week. The top of the 2024 consolidation box also aligns with it. More importantly, sentiment has completely flipped. And I need to say, there are more bears, much more bears than bulls outside, and I dislike being one of many. The same people who were screaming for $150,000 at the top are now desperately waiting for $40,000. X is flooded with targets of $50,000, $45,000, $42,000 and $38,000. Retail is once again standing on one side of the boat, convinced the market owes them the perfect entry.
Front-Running the Herd
Since I announced the 50-40k region as my deeper bear-market target, most of crypto X has copied the same narrative. They copied everything, The market is not blind. The market knows retail is sitting in cash waiting below $50,000. They know people are terrified to buy at $64,000 because they have convinced themselves they will receive Bitcoin at $40,000. I am not going to stand behind the herd and beg the market for the same price as everyone else. I am front-running them. And the next that is following is also going to increase the price and so on, and the chain will be continued and those who are waiting for lower can stay there waiting forever.
Just because the four-year cycle worked at the top does not mean it will work at the bottom. Right now, everyone is waiting for September or October as if the market has already programmed the bottom into the calendar. Do you understand how insane that is? Ask anyone when they plan to buy and they will tell you September or October. Ask them why and they will repeat the same answer: because of the four-year cycle. That is the 1+1 herd behavior. What if the real cycle is not exactly four years? What if it is three years and nine or ten months? What if the market bottoms before the date the entire crowd is waiting for? Bulls are waiting, bears are waiting, and everyone is using the same indicator to justify the same timing. That alone shold cause panic to all waiting for the 4 years cycle to happen. Markets do not reward the masses for memorizing a calendar. I am betting against the four-year-cycle bottom. It is not happening. The bottom comes earlier.
The Structural Shift Around Bitcoin
The deeper reason for the change is not technical. It is structural. The environment around Bitcoin is shifting at a speed most people still do not understand. Regulatory clarity, tokenization infrastructure and institutional adoption are all moving forward at the same time, and the legal framework being built right now has the potential to unlock trillions of dollars of institutional capital that has been sitting on the sidelines or parked in the stock market waiting for certainty. Combine that with Coinbase's institutional buildout and BlackRock's fully operational ETF ecosystem, and we are no longer looking at the same Bitcoin market that existed six months ago. The CLARITY Act could go through on August 10 depending on the Senate, and that is not a small event. There is a reason the entire world is now racing to regulate crypto with full speed.
BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and the New York Stock Exchange are already inside the DTCC live tokenization pilot. Microsoft shares, SPY, QQQ and US Treasuries are being tested as tokenized securities right now, with the official launch planned for October. Stocks, ETFs and Treasuries are moving on-chain, and the largest institutions in the world are adopting blockchain rails while retail is still debating whether the bear market is over. On top of that, Citadel just invested $400 million directly into https://t.co/R0aEy9w9Rx at a $20 billion valuation. The biggest players are deploying capital now, at scale, before the crowd understands what is happening. The infrastructure is being built directly in front of everyone, and I move my capital when the biggest capital in the world starts moving, not after
In Regards of the Stock Market Crash:
I am keeping every single SP500 short open. Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same trade, and they are not at the same point in their cycle. The crypto bear market began in October 2025 and continued for nine months while the stock market refused to fall. Bitcoin dropped 52% from 125k to 60k. In the same window the SP500 made new all-time highs. Crypto has already been repriced while stocks remain over valued. Therefore there is a very high probability that the Crypto Market will benefit from a Stock Market crash, as profits will move from over valued assets into under valued assets, and in times of Tokenization Hype, Stablecoin talk and the Clarity Act, these funds will very likely move into the Crypto Market.
One More Thing: I called 40-50k as the target and I was clear about it, I called 60k when Bitcoin was at 120k, and at 60k I said 40-50k is coming, But when the entire crowd on X starts waiting for the exact same level, the market almost never delivers it. Six months ago nobody was calling for sub-50k. Today every single account is. That is exactly when the target gets taken off the table. I now believe we will not see 40-50k at all this cycle. The setup that would have delivered that level is dissolving in front of the tokenization revolution, the CLARITY Act, and the biggest capital in the world moving in. Changing my view when the facts change is what a good trader should do. It is exactly why I made massive profits shorting from 120k, and it is why I am accumulating now while others are still waiting for a bottom that will not come the way they want it.
That is why I am buying now. The crowd has become aggressively bearish and the conditions required for a much deeper collapse are beginning to weaken in front of the regulatory and tokenization revolution. I would rather begin building a position before the crowd understands the shift than chase Bitcoin after confirmation at much higher prices. Buy earlier before the mass starts to understand.
Guys dividen 4 bank besar indonesia udah keluar
dengan yiled masing masingnya:
BBCA = 4.16 %
BBRI = 8.8 %
BMRI = 9.05 %
BBNI = 7.8%
kita simulasikan masing2 nya kita taro 100 juta
berarti dividen yang didapat:
BBCA = 4.160.000
BBRI = 8.800.000
BMRI = 9.050.000
BBNI = 7.800.000
Asumsi diratakan dari dividen tahunan (realitas: dibayar lump sum setahun sekali):
BBCA = 346.667
BBRI= 733.333
BMRI= 754.167
BBNI = 650.000
Untuk dapat dividen Rp6 juta per bulan (Rp72 juta per tahun), hitung modal yang dialokasikan berdasarkan yield masing-masing bank dari asumsi sebelumnya (BBCA 4.16%, BBRI 8.8%, BMRI 9.05%, BBNI 7.8%). Rumus sederhana: Modal = Target Dividen Tahunan ÷ Yield (dalam desimal).
BBCA = 1.730.769.231
BBRI = 818.181.818
BMRI = 795.582.872
BBNI = 923.076.923
jadi kalo mau ada passive income senilai 6 juta
cukup punya saham BMRI senilai 800 juta
sudah bisa tercapai tuhh
$BTC jika di zoom out
Hanya mencoba untuk memprediksi market
digambar ini tercantum :
1. Beberapa support penting untuk saat ini
2. Target TOP dan Bottom Bullrun Cycle kali ini
Semua ini hanya perkiraan
Tidak ada yang pasti dimarket
Analisa ini tidak bisa dijadikan patokan, bisa berubah seiring waktu dan kondisi.
Lakukanlah analisa sendiri untuk memastikan kebeneran setiap informasi
ALWAYS DYOR
Aku kasi rahasia tradingku lagi
Kenapa aku bisa beli selalu langsung mantul 1% dan bs fast scalp
Karena aku selalu sabar menunggu dip, blood, dan ngebentuk support baru masuk
Tanda support adalah kebentuk “CANDLE CHECKMATE”
Jadi dca hanya dilakukan jika muncul candle ini
Setelah membungkam China, skuad timnas Indonesia diundang makan siang bersama oleh Presiden Prabowo di kediamannya di Kertanegara. 🍽️
Hp dikumpulin dulu ya. 😄
“HOPING FOR THE FINAL ALTSEASON”
🔹 Price Action & Struktur Bulanan
•Saat ini, kapitalisasi pasar crypto (di luar top 10 coin) berada pada level sekitar 241.96 miliar USD.
•Terlihat sangat jelas bahwa struktur pasar sedang membentuk pola higher low, terindikasi oleh garis tren naik yang berwarna kuning.
•Teridentifikasi “Potential Bottom Forming” yang mengindikasikan fase konsolidasi akumulasi di timeframe bulanan, sangat positif untuk potensi reversal bullish besar dalam jangka panjang.
🔹 Indikator Stochastic RSI (Monthly)
•Stochastic RSI berada di area oversold (±22.76), mengindikasikan momentum jual telah mulai melemah signifikan dan potensi pembalikan arah bullish dalam jangka menengah–panjang sangat tinggi.
•Divergensi bullish mulai terlihat di stochastic RSI, yang semakin memperkuat indikasi potensi bullish reversal besar dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.
🔹 Analisis Volume dan Siklus Pasar
•Volume perdagangan terkini (308.57 B) terlihat lebih tinggi dibandingkan periode sebelumnya (242.13 B), menunjukkan bahwa akumulasi yang terjadi sekarang memiliki dukungan volume lebih kuat dibandingkan siklus sebelumnya.
•Siklus terlihat jelas terulang dalam rentang waktu sekitar 13 bulan (396 hari), pola historis serupa dengan siklus sebelumnya
•Jika siklus tersebut valid kembali, maka kita akan memasuki fase bullish ekspansif dalam waktu dekat (mulai Juni 2025 dan puncaknya sekitar oktober 2025).
Pilihlah the “WINNER”
Karena tidak semua altcoin akan rally
Hanya pemenang saja yg akan dapat liquiditas
Sejauh ini coin yang rally paling pertama dalam mini altseason kali ini dan bounce back dari keterpurukan paling cepat (BUKAN SARAN FINANCIAL) :
1. $HYPE : satu2 nya altcoin yg break ATH setelah $BTC
Coin lain yang cukup kuat juga hampir balik ke ATH nya :
2. $SUI
3. $FARTCOIN
NFA
ALWAYS DYOR
TIPS & TRICK DCA di CRYPTO VERSI @Ardalyn_ SUPAYA GAK BELI DI PUCUK
Split entry aja
Yg enak itu sebenernya tiap turun 5% masuk 25%
Gimana tuh?
Jadi semisal aku punya total modal 10.000 usd
Trus 70% ini btc = 7000 usd
30% trading = 3000
Dari 30% trading itu dipecah lagi
50% nya stay usdt = 1500
50% nya aku pakai trading harian = 1500
Trus aku maksimal masuk 3 coin saat trading harian
Brarti masing2 coin 500 usd
Lalu dari jatah masing2 coin aku pecah lagi entrynya jadi 4x, tiap turun 5% aku masuk
Brarti tiap entry aku masuk 125 USD
Kalau Turun 5% masuk lagi 125
Sampai batasnya 20% karena setelah turun lebih dari 20% aku kebiasaan CL (alasannya sudah pernah aku jelasin)
Kalau semisal di entry pertama sudah langsung naik brarti rejekinya segitu aja
Gausah FOMO, kalau turun ya tinggal DCA lagi
Ribet? Menurutku enggak sih
Kalau aku tips & trick DCA nya gini, jadi kalau gak sengaja beli dipucuk senggaknya risk managementnya bagus
Teori ini bisa aja sesat dan tidak benar, tapi aku biasanya caranya gini, tiap orang beda2 stylenya, pastikan cari kebenarannya sendiri.
ALWAYS DYOR
SPOT / FUTURE TRADE BY ARDALYN
DISCLAIMER :
1. Aku gak punya group berbayar, semua gratis, jika ada yang mengatasnamakan aku dan berbayar brarti itu bukan aku.
2. Semua outlook bersifat DYOR (do your own research), aku gak memiliki tanggung jawab atas keputusan financial kalian masing - masing.
3. Aku gak bisa update selalu dengan segala outlook yg aku share, karena aku juga punya aktivitas sendiri
4. Jangan jadikan tempat ini sebagai tempat berjudi kalian.
PEMBELAJARAN MENGENAI ENTRY STOP LOSS
1. Jika outlook tanpa set up maka itu hanya outlook menarik tapi untuk entry dan SL ditangan kalian sendiri.
2. Jika ada setup maka disana sudah ada dimana area ENTRY, dan SL
3. Untuk SL di spot sifatnya SL MANUAL (artinya kalian sendiri yang jual ketika harga sudah masuk area SL, biasanya aku akan menunggu closing daily untuk memutuskan CUTLOSS atau tidak alasannya sering hanya buat wick saja lalu mantul, itu untungnya trade spot)
4. SL di spot itu paling efisien 10-20% saja lebih dari itu resikonya sangat besar, liat tabel untuk kalian paham, karena jika SL sebanyak 50%, untuk balik modal saja harus naik 100% atau 2x.
PEMBELAJARAN MENGENAI TAKE PROFIT
1. Jika trade sudah running jangan lupa set SL nya di entry untuk future, fungsinya untuk minimalisir resiko dari untung jadi rugi.
2. Jika sudah untung ada baiknya ambil bawa pulang masuk ATM, belajarlah bersyukur walaupun sedikit, karena profit is profit.
3. Jangan suka nyumbang balik ke market setelah untung, signal untuk diri sendiri kapan mesti Take profit adalah ketika kalian pengen take picture, Take picture = Take profit, karena emosi brarti sudah terlalu senang.
4. Batasan kapan untuk Take profit tidak ada keharusan kapan, ketika sudah profit bersyukurlah, dan take profit secukupnya.
Trading Option 1)
Observe how projects handled themselves in Q1
Buy the ones that start moving in Q2
Take profits in Q3
Spectate Q4
Trading Option 2)
Be skeptical/bearish the rest of Q2
Get major FOMO in Q3 and buy the euphoria
Round trip profits and become bagholder in 2026
Aku kasi Tips & Trik trading yaa
Sebenarnya yaa cara dapatin gain maksimal itu caranya menunggu waktu yg tepat
SABAR ADALAH KOENCI
Lalu
4 TEMBAKAN DORDORDOR ADALAH KUNCI
ketika ada darah disana waktunya kita DCA spot bukan all in future, bagi jadi 4 peluru
Jadi kalaupun lanjut terjun dari key support masih bisa tembak sampai 4 peluru
CL ITU PENTING
Dan kalaupun terjun 20% dari key support kita harus disiplin CL
4 MINDSET DARAH
1. FEAR WHEN PEOPLE GREED
2. GREED WHEN PEOPLE FEAR
3. BUY RED SELL GREED
4. BUY BLOOD SELL PARTY
Jadi kalau disimpulkan
1. BE PATIENT (SABAR)
2. KEEP DCA IN SUPPORT (4 TEMBAKAN DOR)
3. DISIPLIN CUTLOSS (JIKA PLAN TIDAK SESUAI)
4. DARAH DIJALAN ADALAH KESEMPATAN (4 MINDSET DARAH)
Repost resep rahasia ini, simple, basic tapi orang sering lupa
NFA
ALWAYS DYOR
Sesuai janji 11K followes
INDICATOR YANG PALING AKU SERING PAKAI
1. EMA 13, 21
2. MA cross 50 & 200
3. Stochastic dengan settingan 5,3,3
4. VRVP
5. Volume
6. Orderblock detector by luxalgo
2 TIPS YANG SANGAT GACOR BAGI PEMULA YG BARU TERJUN DI CEYPTO KURANG DARI 1 TAHUN ADALAH
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1. JANGAN SENTUH CRYPTO TRADING APALAGI FUTURE
2. BALIK KE TIPS PERTAMA
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Karena aku lihat 90% orang akan rungkad, dan cuma berharap bisa BEP, itu sangat menyedihkan sekali rasanya. Dan ketika berharap bisa BEP akhirnya Top Up terus, bukannya BEP malah tambah rungkad. Jadi cukup belajar aja dan observasi.
ALWAYS DYOR