Zach Abbott

Grad student at UT-Knoxville. Developer of the #Zabbottry basketball prediction model. Husband to the most amazing woman. Father of two awesome little girls.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

There's a human side to this.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@RyanDontMiss @Colin_Hanley1 Thanks, Ryan!

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@M_quack15 @JBRBracketology Ticket sales and concessions for a game against a visiting power conference team will far outweigh the $100,000 minus travel expenses for a buy game.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@JBRBracketology This was a thread I wrote during last year’s tournament, and I think we’re going to see the same thing this year.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

To give you all some idea of why this #MarchMadness tournament has been so chalky (thread): The 1-seeds this year rank #1, #4, #6, and #7 since 2002 in KenPom. Auburn would be favored over every single past national champion except 2019 Virginia (pretournament rating). 1 / 3

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@detxspartan @JBRBracketology Abolish conference tournaments.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@MattGrossenbach Summit League
Duluth, MN
Zabbottry Arena
Myself
Minnesota - Duluth
Green and Gold
Teutons

It’s a new team.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@MattGrossenbach I have never been able to compare KenPom's prediction success with other predictive models over the course of an entire season, but Ken's has outperformed his competition over the periods I've tested.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

To earn a Q1 win. The average Top 30 team in KenPom has a rating of 17.5; this year's Top 30 team (Kentucky) has a rating of 21.3. We are being treated to very good basketball at the top.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

I'm guessing there's a reasonable amount of consensus that these 8 teams constitute the last 4 in / first 4 out:

@OhioStateHoops
@UCLAMBB
@MiamiOH_BBall
@SetonHallMBB
@CalMBBall
@Aztec_MBB
@SantaClaraHoops
@MasonMBB

So, is it a bad bubble? Let's look ... 1 / x

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

The trouble is that the top teams are historically good. There are 10 teams with a KenPom rating above 30. The most before that was in 2025 when there were just 5 teams rated 30+. About half the bubble is quite good, historically speaking, but it's also much harder ... 3 / x

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@Colin_Hanley1 I'm telling you, Colin, Duke to win the championship.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@JBRBracketology There are currently 10 teams with a KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin > 30.

2025 had 5 teams meet that criteria pre - tournament.
2019 had 4.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

Live look at @TonyPatelis walking his dog this morning.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@StatisticUrban @CrazyVibes_1 What are the signs?

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@MattGrossenbach This is likely going to be the best thing I read today.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@Colin_Hanley1 You and I have the same problem with Brigham Young. Then again, maybe you like where you have them. From my perspective, though, they don't seem like the 5th best team in the country, but my own model certainly thinks so.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@mattvanswol I think you need more things to fill out your day, Matty.

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@pickleo7 Hi, Jacob, I’ve now seen a couple of these analyses, and I’m absolutely awestruck! How hard / time consuming is it to produce this?

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@RealKYMuskie I DMed you, Ky!

[Zach Abbott @ZachAbbott19]

@Colin_Hanley1 Impressive!