2022 was brutal for those in crypto. If you are still here after 90% losses, you have much higher conviction than most about long term success of crypto.
When we get the next bull market in 2024-25, many will say we got 'lucky'. They won't realize what it look to make that luck.
@newstart_2024 I have always found the 'mental clarity' claim to be dubious. I do frequent 5 day fasts. I feel hungry on day 4 and 5 just as much as days 1-3 even though most people claim that once ketosis kicks in they don't feel hungry.
Days feel very long and you think about food a lot
$MSTR was trading close to $400 when this post was made. Today its trading at $85. It won't go to zero like Luna. But it's likely to cause the final leg down for this crypto cycle before we start seeing the start of the next crypto cycle :
https://t.co/4jLByBUNHF
Unpopular opinion : The 2025 bull run is likely to end with a $MSTR collapse. I get the eerie feeling that MSTR is going to the LUNA of this cycle.
But ... lots of money to be made while the music still plays and it will probably play for another 10 months or so.
@EricBalchunas@YahooFinance Why is it called digital gold if it does not behave like gold ?
The history of Bitcoin shows it behaves similarly to a risk on asset. i.e it behaves nothing like gold.
People are freaking out thinking the L2 roadmap got dismantled.
It didn't.
It evolved, literally !
The old roadmap:
L2s were branded shards aka mini-Ethereum but cheap. Aka “your job is to scale and that’s it.”
But! L2s did amazing things, they outcompeted, they spread what’s possible, they made people believe and actually USE this thing.
So!
The new roadmap: L2s are specialized chains that inherit Ethereum's security.
The goal is now to be the best at somETHing.
Privacy.
Gaming.
DeFi.
Speed.
AI.
Social.
Institutional.
Whatever your USERS need.
The politics, the “acknowledgment” does not matter, the proof is much realer (literally).
This IS NOT Ethereum stepping back from L2s.
ITS L2s stepping Forward.
Stage 1 = minimum if you're handling ETH.
Beyond that?
Differentiate.
Get weird.
Build what only YOU can build.
by the way the native rollup exists and is a REAL effort !
AKA ZK verification built into the protocol itself.
This is literally Ethereum investing deeper in L2s, not walking away.
The roadmap DID NOT get dismantled.
It got upgraded.
IT GOT FREER
IT GOT MORE REAL.
WE HAVE A JOB TO DO
and the job is to bring this to the world
togETHer.
If you're building on an L2 right now, nothing changed except your ceiling.
It just got higher.
Now that ZKEVMs are at alpha stage (production-quality performance, remaining work is safety) and PeerDAS is live on mainnet, it's time to talk more about what this combination means for Ethereum.
These are not minor improvements; they are shifting Ethereum into being a fundamentally new and more powerful kind of decentralized network.
To see why, let's look at the two major types of p2p network so far:
BitTorrent (2000): huge total bandwidth, highly decentralized, no consensus
Bitcoin (2009): highly decentralized, consensus, but low bandwidth - because it’s not “distributed” in the sense of work being split up, it’s *replicated*
Now, Ethereum with PeerDAS (2025) and ZK-EVMs (expect small portions of the network using it in 2026), we get: decentralized, consensus and high bandwidth
The trilemma has been solved - not on paper, but with live running code, of which one half (data availability sampling) is *on mainnet today*, and the other half (ZK-EVMs) is *production-quality on performance today* - safety is what remains.
This was a 10-year journey (see the first commit of my original post on DAS here: https://t.co/Fa0jKFgObW , and ZK-EVM attempts started in ~2020), but it's finally here.
Over the next ~4 years, expect to see the full extent of this vision roll out:
* In 2026, large non-ZKEVM-dependent gas limit increases due to BALs and ePBS, and we'll see the first opportunities to run a ZKEVM node
* In 2026-28, gas repricings, changes to state structure, exec payload going into blobs, and other adjustments to make higher gas limits safe
* In 2027-30, large further gas limit increases, as ZKEVM becomes the primary way to validate blocks on the network
A third piece of this is distributed block building.
A long-term ideal holy grail is to get to a future where the full block is *never* constituted in one single place. This will not be necessary for a long time, but IMO it is worth striving for us at least have the capability to do that.
Even before that point, we want the meaningful authority in block building to be as distributed as possible. This can be done either in-protocol (eg. maybe we figure out how to expand FOCIL to make it a primary channel for txs), or out-of-protocol with distributed builder marketplaces. This reduces risk of centralized interference with real-time transaction inclusion, AND it creates a better environment for geographical fairness.
Onward.
Progress toward real-time proving for Ethereum L1 is nothing short of extraordinary.
In May, SP1 Hypercube proved 94% of L1 blocks in under 12 seconds using 160 RTX 4090s. Five months later Pico Prism proves 99.9% of the same blocks in under 12 seconds, with just 64 RTX 5090s. Average proving latency is now 6.9 seconds.
Performance has outpaced Moore's law ever since Zcash pioneered practical SNARKs a decade ago. Today's Pico Prism results are a striking reminder of that exponential curve.
Beyond performance, zkVM diversity is remarkable. At least nine zkVMs are racing toward real-time proving: Airbender, Ceno, Jolt, OpenVM, Pico Prism, R0VM, SP1 Hypercube, Ziren, ZisK. That diversity is strength, similar to CL and EL client diversity.
Fusaka, expected in December, will simplify real-time proving. EIP-7825 caps per-tx gas usage, enabling more parallel proving via subblocks. MODEXP, a prominent "prover killer", is being repriced with EIP-7823 and EIP-7883.
By year's end several teams will prove every L1 EVM block on a 16-GPU cluster, drawing less than 10kW total. The 10kW target—about the same as a Tesla home charger—matters for on-prem proving in garages and offices, eliminating reliance on cloud proving.
gigagas frontier
L1 throughput has grown 100x since genesis ten years ago, from 20 kilogas/sec to 2 megagas/sec. With zkEVMs we can 100x again, in half the time. The key is to bypass validators as Ethereum's current scalability bottleneck.
Lean execution proofs also decentralise validation. Goodbye 4TB NVMe, 8 cores, 64GB RAM recommended by EIP-7870. A Raspberry Pi running statelessly, or even a phone, will soon suffice. The scalability vs decentralisation dilemma is dying.
Zooming out, the lean Ethereum vision is gigagas L1 and teragas L2. Gigagas L1 (10K TPS) means high-value payments, trading, and social apps directly on mainnet. Teragas L2 (10M TPS) means welcoming the entirety of finance onto Ethereum.
Nov 22: Ethproofs day demo
Behind the scenes teams are preparing a special Devconnect demo. In 38 days my home validator will run on zkEVM proofs. My mighty Geth node will go dark—no more execution client.
Devconnect Argentina is Ethereum's world fair. World fairs unveiled the lightbulb, running water, cars, refrigeration, phones, escalators. Real-time proving is Ethereum's lightbulb moment.
Ethereum's future is bright. Believe in something :)
Vitalik just published a vision that stretches far beyond Ethereum.
It is about why every layer of technology, from chips to wallets to health data, must be open and verifiable.
Here is a breakdown for those who will not read 7,000 words today.
1. The core thesis
Closed systems cannot scale trust. If users cannot verify, they are forced to blindly trust institutions or black boxes. As more of life moves into digital systems, that trust model becomes brittle and dangerous.
2. Hardware
If chips or hardware have hidden backdoors, everything on top is compromised. The solution is verifiable hardware: designs and manufacturing that can be audited so users know their devices are secure.
3. Finance
DeFi is one of the best early proofs of verifiability. Fully collateralized lending, transparent stablecoins, and onchain payments allow users to see what is happening under the hood. The principle is that money should not depend on promises you cannot audit.
4. Health
Medical records and genomic data are incredibly personal. Today they are often siloed by corporations. Vitalik argues they should be stored in ways that patients can verify, control, and share on their own terms.
5. Civic tech
Voting systems, digital identity, and public records must be open and verifiable. If they are not, entire societies risk capture by those who control the black boxes. Public legitimacy requires public auditability.
6. AI
Models are becoming a key layer of decision-making in the world. If they cannot be inspected, society loses agency. Open and verifiable AI is needed to make sure we are not ruled by algorithms we cannot understand.
7. The common thread
Whether it is money, health, governance, or AI, the answer is the same: sovereignty through verification. Openness is not just ideology, it is resilience. Closed systems break trust when they fail, but open systems let trust scale because anyone can check.
8. Why it matters now
The internet is no longer separate from real life. Every major decision in society will increasingly depend on systems built by humans and run by machines. If those systems are closed, power concentrates. If they are open and verifiable, power decentralizes.
Vitalik’s call is not for one product or one chain. It is for a direction: build everything in a way that can be verified, and build it so that anyone can do the verifying.
Ethereum is one example of this philosophy, but the scope is bigger. Openness and verifiability are not optional features of technology. They are the safeguards that protect us from digital dystopia.
If you're just trying to capture the promise of crypto, you could own just two securities. You could own Bitcoin and Ethereum, and you would capture more than 90% of the alpha or price volatility of the entire crypto market. If you have Bitcoin and Ethereum together, you can wrap and you can stake and you can create a distribution. You can get yield off this combination that you couldn't before. Now I have yield. I get a check every month.
@RyanSAdams People are seriously underestimating the power governments have
How many will risk jail time or assets being confiscated to get 4.5% yield ?
Total net ETH issuance since The Merge: ~451,079 ETH
Total net inflows into the ETH ETFs today: ~238,200 ETH
In a *single day*, the ETH ETFs bought over 50% all the net issued ETH since The Merge.
ACCELERATE!
Joseph Lubin and Tom Lee have blazed the trail for ETH Treasury companies. It can’t be overstated how bullish this is for $ETH.
Just getting started. Unfathomably higher.
Track ETH treasury company industry at https://t.co/27787dmiRp