@benjamincowen Bitcoin took the liquidity, scared everyone, reclaimed the 200W SMA, and closed the week above it.
The market loves making the maximum number of people doubt the trend before continuing it.
Great analysis also keeping in mind the big SpaceX IPO is very likely to drain liquidity out of the markets adding to the risk along with the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
#waqarzaka@ZakaWaqar
June 16 is the real macro danger day
Bank of Japan ends its meeting on June 16 and markets are pricing around 80% chance of a hike to 1 percent
If Japan hikes it can pressure global liquidity yen carry trades tech stocks and crypto
Then on June 17 Kevin Warsh leads his first Fed decision as Chair
Fed statement 2pm ET press conference 230pm ET
Strong US jobs data has made the Fed setup more hawkish because strong employment plus sticky inflation means less room for rate cuts and more risk of higher yields
My speculative call
If BoJ hikes and Warsh sounds hawkish risk assets can dump fast
Crypto only survives if Warsh uses soft language like data dependent financial stability liquidity support or no urgent need to hike
This week is not about charts only
It is about Japan liquidity plus Fed tone
What do you think crash first or fake dump then pump
If $ETH ever drops back to the $550-$650 range and $SOL gets to $20-$25, make sure you don't miss it.
I feel like this is going to be the absolute bottom range for #SOL and #ETH for the next 10 to 15 years or maybe even forever.
NFA.
🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!!
Bitcoin dump is just getting started.
And $BTC now follows the path to the market cycle bottom.
My target for the bottom: $50,000.
Let me explain:
The Bitcoin CME Death Cross is playing out exactly as 2022.
In 2022, after the Death Cross, BTC dumped from $30K to $17K.
That was a -42% move.
Now in 2026, the same structure is appearing again.
BTC already dumped from $83K to $60K.
That is only -26% so far.
Halfway through the same pattern.
The market is following the same chart.
Same cross.
Same direction.
And if this pattern completes like 2022, the next major level is still below.
That is exactly why my target is $50,000.
This is not random price action.
This is the same Death Cross setup that destroyed the market in 2022.
Most people think the bottom is close.
Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.
The next call will be even more important.
When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
Keep a close watch on this specific sector.
Entirely for RWAs,
Bridging traditional finance with the chain (RealFi).
Real Estate Tokenization.
Bonds & Commodities.
Energy Assets.
Institutional Finance.
YESTERDAY's $2.2 TRILLION MARKET CRASH MAY HAVE BEEN JUST THE BEGINNING.
The US is now entering another midterm election cycle, and history shows these periods are usually some of the most dangerous times for markets.
Since 1926, the S&P 500 has suffered an average drawdown of nearly -18% BEFORE US midterm elections.
Some of the biggest crashes in modern history happened during these cycles:
• 1930: -34.8%
• 1974: -41.8%
• 2002: -33.8%
• 2022: -25.4%
Yesterday’s selloff already became the biggest percentage crash and the largest dollar wipeout since April 2025.
The scary part is that today’s market looks even more fragile than previous midterm cycles.
Stocks are near record valuations.
The top 10 companies now control 40% of the S&P 500.
AI stocks became the most crowded trade on Wall Street.
And markets are still heavily dependent on rate cuts that may never come.
At the same time:
• Oil is back above $90
• Inflation remains sticky.
• The Fed is still hawkish.
• bond yields are rising
• and liquidity conditions are tightening globally
History shows markets usually panic into midterms because investors hate uncertainty.
That panic often creates violent crashes before the election actually happens.
MY FATHER SPENT 32 YEARS STUDYING MARKETS AND LEFT ME 12 RULES
Most people learn these the expensive way
Price falls 5% → Hold
Price falls 15% → Buy 10%
Price falls 25% → Buy 20%
Price falls 40% → Buy 30%
Price falls 60% → Buy 40%
Price rises 5% → Hold
Price rises 20% → Hold
Price rises 25% → Sell 10%
Price rises 40% → Sell 20%
Price rises 50% → Sell 35%
Price rises 70% → Sell 40%
Price rises 100% → Sell 90%
Always keep 10% as a moonbag
Never go all in, never go all out
Simple framework, almost nobody follows it
Follow me - the people who do tend not to regret it
🚨 BREAKING:
THE MAN WHO PREDICTED THE 2008 CRASH, MICHAEL BURRY, JUST SAID:
"SPACEX, ANTHROPIC, AND OPENAI IPOS WILL RAISE MORE THAN THE 300 DOT-COMS DID IN 2000."
HE HOLDS A $1 BILLION AI SHORT SINCE 2025: $912M IN $PLTR AND $187M IN $NVDA
HE KNOWS HUGE DUMP IS COMING...
THIS MIGHT BE THE MOST INSANE THING IN CRYPTO RIGHT NOW.
MMs have literally wiped out every long in existence here.
There are $25 BILLION in shorts sitting right now vs. only $940 MILLION in longs.
Such imbalance is very rare, and this shows the level of manipulation going on in crypto.
Jim Bianco: The Fed futures market is already pricing an 85% chance of a rate hike this year.
So if Warsh comes out hawkish on June 17th - nothing happens, market already priced it.
If he comes out dovish, the market will immediately ask:
Who are the other 6 voters going with him?
"Fine. One guy wants to cut rates. Who are the other six that are going to vote with him? Tell me, give me those names."
That's the way the market is going to look at it - meaning the June meeting may be less of a market mover than people expect.
FT @biancoresearch@BitcoinJesusETH@MilkRoadMacro.
What just happened?
The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
tom lee's bitmine now holds 4.49% of all ETH, about 5.4 million coins, and it bought every one with equity. zero debt, spot owned, no margin or converts or collateral to call. nothing in the structure forces them to sell. it's a permanent bid only bitmine can ever unwind.
🚨 INSIGHT: Gold advocate Peter Schiff warns of a potential “Crypto Black Monday” after Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 and erased its post-election gains.