![Larskooistra_'s tweet photo. $BTC [HTF playbook]
I want to give you guys my in depth thoughts on the market, recapping what happened since the completion of our macro distribution playbook and talking about what I am personally expecting for BTC in the next 1-2 months and how I will be looking to trade it:
Introduction:
After BTC swept 74K, completing our macro distribution schematic, price flushed down aggressively all the way to 59K before starting it's retracement leg towards the upside.
That downwards expansion back in the beginning of Feb went lower than I initially anticipated and I believe it was an overreaction. Which is also the reason for price to deliver this current extended HTF retracement leg towards the upside --> to fully rebalance price before delivering the next expansion.
Swing structure is still bearish and based on the behavior of the current HTF pullback, price deviating highs and building a lot of lows (sellside liquidity), I am expecting this retracement leg to result in a HTF lower high with price takig out the low at 59K.
Current price action:
What is important to understand is that when BTC is ready to deliver a macro pivot --> this can be identified through aggressive price behavior:
A bearish pivot = aggressive sells creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the downside.
A bullish pivot = aggressive buys creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the upside.
No significant displacement breaking key levels = no macro bearish pivot.
Right now, BTC has mitigated our supply POI followed by a rejection back down from 83K --> 74K, but what is noticeable about the rejection leg?
It is a slow move down, creating buyside liquidity while deviating our red MS low. Or in other words:
No aggressive sells, creating displacement while breaking key levels and therefore a high chance of NOT being our macro bearish pivot.
My expectation for the next 1-2 months:
Due to this understanding of knowing what is needed in order for price to deliver a sustainable reversal I would like to see the following get created at current market prices:
A bullish rotation back up to new highs, confirming a higher TF distribution schematic that results in aggressive bearish displacement breaking key MS towards the downside.
In order to establish a higher TF range that can result into a distribution --> we can apply the advanced #TCT range concepts (explained in mentorship 2025) to pre-plan multiple trade ideas in between because we would need to get a rotation towards new highs first.
Best case scenario:
We short a local distribution schematic that creates the range high of our accumulation (first blue box), we long the accumulation schematic back up to new highs (second blue box), we short the deviation of our HTF distribution schematic for a swingshort (third and fourth blue box).
The blue boxes in the picture highlight the most optimal potential trading setups.
Advanced details:
I have seen a lot of 'normie' TA and believe that a new higher high will result in a lot of failed bearish retail patterns while 'confirming' a lot of bullish retail playbooks, therefore making it the perfect location to create a #TCT distribution schematic.
In combination with the White House pushing the clarity act before July 4th, seeing bullish expansions in June can validate a lot of retails expectations --> causing them to not be aware and pre-plan for the bearish reversal ahead.
Lastly, with BTC approaching the summer period and volume decreasing, if whales are properly positioned for downside (which we will be able to identify through our #TCT models), it will be extremely easy for them to kickstart an aggressive bearish reversal because a few heavier market sells will have more impact --> adding confluence to our thesis.
Conclusion:
I am expecting a HTF distribution to get created --> which means a bullish rotation back up towards 83K first --> followed by an aggressive bearish rotation towards the range lows.
Break that range low = 59K.
How steep the deviations are going to be towards the upside during the distribution process is up to the market makers and not something we have to predict.
I have one high probability POI at 86K that could get mitigated.
My drawing are not exact predictions, rather an overall idea of how price could somewhat move in the coming 1-2 months.
And remember, in the end we always trade confirmations --> not expectations.
I'm just giving you an idea in which framework we can be looking to trade the upcoming price action.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJK38QrXEAAGztr.jpg)
Olivia
Online
Zomplax $XAGE
@Zomplaxist
Joined September 2024
487 Following
105 Followers
1.5K Posts
Why the bottom for $BTC is not in
Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders
Currently it is 53.6k
Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price
2011 → BTC bottomed at $2.1, about 58% below the Realised Price of $5
2015 → BTC bottomed at $152, about 49% below the Realised Price of $300
2018 → BTC bottomed at $3.2k, about 47% below the Realised Price of $6k
2022 → BTC bottomed at $15.4k about 34% below the Realised Price of $23.3k
58%, 49%, 47%, 34% – see a pattern forming?
My prediction for the next Bitcoin bottom is the Realised Price minus 20-30%
In other words → 37.5k-42.8k
Bookmark this because I know I'm right
$Ondo HTF
You guys really think I'm here trying to scare you?
I'm posting these because I want to protect you.
Whether you agree with me or not,
I care about you guys and don't want to see anyone following this account lose a dime.
$SEI $APT
@invsthnk ngopi bang ..... please INJ chart .... hehehhee
A look at #Bitcoin historical bottoming pattern using Fibonacci levels
2013 - 2017 - 2021 - Present
Fibonacci instant reversal zone has never failed to be the EXACT bottom.
Will this time be different?
Update market structure untuk $BTC. Level pentingnya termapping di chart ya ...
$INJ GannWyck Model 1 Distribution.
my Triggers $ENA Hit dan waktunya untuk melupakan apakah akan full Profit atau hit Stop loss dan saya rasa ini adalah peluang yang dimana resiko tidak terlalu tinggi untuk Betting Coin ini.
Terutama di Area yang ideal ini.
$TOTAL HTF.
I’m ready for any outcome.
I’ve called every $BTC top since the ATHs in public.
Next I’ll call the bottom here on X and long it live.
Post notifications on?
~GannWyck
$BTC Looking for a HTF GannWyck Model 1 Distribution.
https://t.co/N7NF8JAesW
@Community_Sui Believe in the
$SUI
🤔 $FET ada demand / POI seperti yang termapping di chart. Kalau mau cari peluang trade, coba tunggu reaksi di situ. Wns dulu...
$BTC
Context --- Various
$GMX, silakan dianalisa ulang dan manage risk kalau mau coba. Goodluck 😉
Bitcoin / $BTC
Key levels to have highlighted right now:
Range High (Daily level) - $74.1k
Mid Range - $72.3k
Range Low (Untapped) - $70.5k
A reclaim of the Daily level is critical for any HTF bullish argument.
Ideal scenario:
- Sweep Lows
- Reclaim RL
- Bounce
Levels highlighted. Now we wait.
Konten Pertama VWAP...
kenapa kita harus tau apa itu VWAP dan gimana cara pakainya...
digambar ini ada penjelasan detail tentang VWAP...
$BTC [HTF playbook]
I want to give you guys my in depth thoughts on the market, recapping what happened since the completion of our macro distribution playbook and talking about what I am personally expecting for BTC in the next 1-2 months and how I will be looking to trade it:
Introduction:
After BTC swept 74K, completing our macro distribution schematic, price flushed down aggressively all the way to 59K before starting it's retracement leg towards the upside.
That downwards expansion back in the beginning of Feb went lower than I initially anticipated and I believe it was an overreaction. Which is also the reason for price to deliver this current extended HTF retracement leg towards the upside --> to fully rebalance price before delivering the next expansion.
Swing structure is still bearish and based on the behavior of the current HTF pullback, price deviating highs and building a lot of lows (sellside liquidity), I am expecting this retracement leg to result in a HTF lower high with price takig out the low at 59K.
Current price action:
What is important to understand is that when BTC is ready to deliver a macro pivot --> this can be identified through aggressive price behavior:
A bearish pivot = aggressive sells creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the downside.
A bullish pivot = aggressive buys creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the upside.
No significant displacement breaking key levels = no macro bearish pivot.
Right now, BTC has mitigated our supply POI followed by a rejection back down from 83K --> 74K, but what is noticeable about the rejection leg?
It is a slow move down, creating buyside liquidity while deviating our red MS low. Or in other words:
No aggressive sells, creating displacement while breaking key levels and therefore a high chance of NOT being our macro bearish pivot.
My expectation for the next 1-2 months:
Due to this understanding of knowing what is needed in order for price to deliver a sustainable reversal I would like to see the following get created at current market prices:
A bullish rotation back up to new highs, confirming a higher TF distribution schematic that results in aggressive bearish displacement breaking key MS towards the downside.
In order to establish a higher TF range that can result into a distribution --> we can apply the advanced #TCT range concepts (explained in mentorship 2025) to pre-plan multiple trade ideas in between because we would need to get a rotation towards new highs first.
Best case scenario:
We short a local distribution schematic that creates the range high of our accumulation (first blue box), we long the accumulation schematic back up to new highs (second blue box), we short the deviation of our HTF distribution schematic for a swingshort (third and fourth blue box).
The blue boxes in the picture highlight the most optimal potential trading setups.
Advanced details:
I have seen a lot of 'normie' TA and believe that a new higher high will result in a lot of failed bearish retail patterns while 'confirming' a lot of bullish retail playbooks, therefore making it the perfect location to create a #TCT distribution schematic.
In combination with the White House pushing the clarity act before July 4th, seeing bullish expansions in June can validate a lot of retails expectations --> causing them to not be aware and pre-plan for the bearish reversal ahead.
Lastly, with BTC approaching the summer period and volume decreasing, if whales are properly positioned for downside (which we will be able to identify through our #TCT models), it will be extremely easy for them to kickstart an aggressive bearish reversal because a few heavier market sells will have more impact --> adding confluence to our thesis.
Conclusion:
I am expecting a HTF distribution to get created --> which means a bullish rotation back up towards 83K first --> followed by an aggressive bearish rotation towards the range lows.
Break that range low = 59K.
How steep the deviations are going to be towards the upside during the distribution process is up to the market makers and not something we have to predict.
I have one high probability POI at 86K that could get mitigated.
My drawing are not exact predictions, rather an overall idea of how price could somewhat move in the coming 1-2 months.
And remember, in the end we always trade confirmations --> not expectations.
I'm just giving you an idea in which framework we can be looking to trade the upcoming price action.
![Larskooistra_'s tweet photo. $BTC [HTF playbook]
I want to give you guys my in depth thoughts on the market, recapping what happened since the completion of our macro distribution playbook and talking about what I am personally expecting for BTC in the next 1-2 months and how I will be looking to trade it:
Introduction:
After BTC swept 74K, completing our macro distribution schematic, price flushed down aggressively all the way to 59K before starting it's retracement leg towards the upside.
That downwards expansion back in the beginning of Feb went lower than I initially anticipated and I believe it was an overreaction. Which is also the reason for price to deliver this current extended HTF retracement leg towards the upside --> to fully rebalance price before delivering the next expansion.
Swing structure is still bearish and based on the behavior of the current HTF pullback, price deviating highs and building a lot of lows (sellside liquidity), I am expecting this retracement leg to result in a HTF lower high with price takig out the low at 59K.
Current price action:
What is important to understand is that when BTC is ready to deliver a macro pivot --> this can be identified through aggressive price behavior:
A bearish pivot = aggressive sells creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the downside.
A bullish pivot = aggressive buys creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the upside.
No significant displacement breaking key levels = no macro bearish pivot.
Right now, BTC has mitigated our supply POI followed by a rejection back down from 83K --> 74K, but what is noticeable about the rejection leg?
It is a slow move down, creating buyside liquidity while deviating our red MS low. Or in other words:
No aggressive sells, creating displacement while breaking key levels and therefore a high chance of NOT being our macro bearish pivot.
My expectation for the next 1-2 months:
Due to this understanding of knowing what is needed in order for price to deliver a sustainable reversal I would like to see the following get created at current market prices:
A bullish rotation back up to new highs, confirming a higher TF distribution schematic that results in aggressive bearish displacement breaking key MS towards the downside.
In order to establish a higher TF range that can result into a distribution --> we can apply the advanced #TCT range concepts (explained in mentorship 2025) to pre-plan multiple trade ideas in between because we would need to get a rotation towards new highs first.
Best case scenario:
We short a local distribution schematic that creates the range high of our accumulation (first blue box), we long the accumulation schematic back up to new highs (second blue box), we short the deviation of our HTF distribution schematic for a swingshort (third and fourth blue box).
The blue boxes in the picture highlight the most optimal potential trading setups.
Advanced details:
I have seen a lot of 'normie' TA and believe that a new higher high will result in a lot of failed bearish retail patterns while 'confirming' a lot of bullish retail playbooks, therefore making it the perfect location to create a #TCT distribution schematic.
In combination with the White House pushing the clarity act before July 4th, seeing bullish expansions in June can validate a lot of retails expectations --> causing them to not be aware and pre-plan for the bearish reversal ahead.
Lastly, with BTC approaching the summer period and volume decreasing, if whales are properly positioned for downside (which we will be able to identify through our #TCT models), it will be extremely easy for them to kickstart an aggressive bearish reversal because a few heavier market sells will have more impact --> adding confluence to our thesis.
Conclusion:
I am expecting a HTF distribution to get created --> which means a bullish rotation back up towards 83K first --> followed by an aggressive bearish rotation towards the range lows.
Break that range low = 59K.
How steep the deviations are going to be towards the upside during the distribution process is up to the market makers and not something we have to predict.
I have one high probability POI at 86K that could get mitigated.
My drawing are not exact predictions, rather an overall idea of how price could somewhat move in the coming 1-2 months.
And remember, in the end we always trade confirmations --> not expectations.
I'm just giving you an idea in which framework we can be looking to trade the upcoming price action.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJK4gl4XsAA4eFd.jpg)
I’ll be dropping 20% of my ALPHA knowledge today.
I want u guys to get rich as well.
$BTC Quick Friday Update
BTC has been continuing the bearish downtrend, taking out the internal low once again. We are slowly but surely approaching our 3-day structure low, however until it's broken with a strong and aggressive push, there's still a possibility of going higher, although the lower we retrace, the less likely that becomes.
BTC has deviated its current range low and has the potential to form some sort of accumulation, but it still needs some time. My main priority right now is to look for longs, as we are in the discount zone when taking the measurement from this current MTF retracement leg.
First I need to see some acceptance back inside the range, and then I'll be looking for a Model 1 or 2 accumulation depending on what the market gives us.
Until we get that, we have to remain patient. Set your alerts and enjoy your weekend everyone!
hyperliquid:native top blasters are not prepared for this and it shows
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