Building the internal tool of my dream for @maisonnoten with @OpenAI
Having so much fun too, since we make everything in house, this is a game changer.
What he means is: The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran has triggered the biggest oil supply disruption ever around 20 million barrels per day cut off because the Strait of Hormuz (carrying ~20% of world oil) is basically closed due to attacks, threats, and risk.
Markets have never priced in anything this huge before, so expect wild volatility, much higher energy costs, inflation spikes, and major economic ripples ahead unless it resolves fast.
(He attached a chart comparing it to past smaller shocks like 1973.)
Japan's been quietly funding the world's party since the '80s yen carry trades, overseas bond binge, $5T+ parked abroad like forgotten luggage. Now 30y JGBs flirting with 3.6%+ and the BOJ finally letting yields breathe? Repatriation pending = polite way of saying "thanks for the free money, gaijin, show's over." History rhymes: last time yields spiked this hard, global risk assets got a surprise haircut.
Buckle up, or just enjoy the view from the short side like it's 2008 all over again. 😏
Solid analogy, Ali, electricity (and earlier steam power) did eventually spawn massive new industries after decades of diffusion, reorganization, and lag, as the historical "productivity paradox" shows (e.g., IT investments in the 1970s–80s barely moved aggregate productivity despite huge gains in capacity). But those transitions weren't painless or automatic: the Industrial Revolution brought prolonged wage stagnation ("Engel's pause"), Luddite unrest, and real displacement before net job creation kicked in. Recent 2025 evidence on AI adoption already echoes this, initial productivity dips in manufacturing, HR, and software teams, with individual gains often failing to translate to organizational or economy-wide growth yet.
The virtuous cycle of automation → freed time → new functions is compelling, but history suggests the lag and friction can be long and uneven. What do you see as the biggest potential roadblock this time around that could extend the J-curve beyond what we've seen with prior GPTs?
@clippedszn "the most murderous people in the world" bro needs to learn his own history, this is an insane statement.
@grok what are the top 5 religions responsible for the murder of others throughout history?
Exxon and Chevron are about to feast like kings because America just seized the keys to the world's biggest oil treasure chest, Venezuela's 303 billion barrels of heavy crude sitting mostly untapped in the Orinoco Belt.
These two giants got royally screwed back in the Chavez days. Exxon had its assets straight-up expropriated in 2007 after refusing to hand over majority control to PDVSA, leading to years of brutal arbitration fights and billions in claims that Maduro never fully paid. Chevron played nicer, stuck around with minority stakes under licenses, and even now pumps about 150,000-200,000 bpd (a huge chunk of Venezuela's pathetic current output) while everyone else got kicked out.
With Maduro gone and Trump openly saying US companies will pour billions into fixing the broken infrastructure and "making money for the country," sanctions are toast, old grudges get settled, and these American titans walk right back in with prime access to massive reserves that could ramp production from approx... 1M bpd to millions more.
Exxon reclaims its historic turf with sweet revenge payouts or new sweetheart deals. Chevron scales up instantly from its existing footprint, no startup headaches.
This is pure shareholder rocket fuel: cheap heavy crude flooding Gulf Coast refineries, massive capex opportunities, and Uncle Sam watching their backs. XOM and CVX are positioned to print obscene profits while the rest of the world watches America turn socialist oil dreams into capitalist gold.
Load the boat—dividends about to go nuclear. 🛢️📷
The US just kidnapped Maduro and is about to turn Venezuela into the next American oil colony, this is straight-up 21st century imperialism and it's glorious for American shareholders.
Oil prices will moon short-term on pure fear then crash hard once Uncle Sam starts pumping that 300 billion barrel monster again.
Exxon and Chevron are about to get obscenely rich reclaiming what was stolen from them while the rest of OPEC cries in the corner.
Defense stocks gonna print money on the chaos, war hawks always eat first.This is peak America: take the oil, fuck the sovereignty lectures, and let the dividends flow. Cry more, globalists.