Bessent must be furious... Rates keep rising as he triples Treasury buybacks.
Bessent is issuing short-term USTs to buy back long-term Treasuries...
And Warsh is printing money to buy short-term Treasuries at a faster pace than during Covid.
Technically, this isn't QE because the Fed isn't buying the long-term Treasuries directly...
But effectively, the goal is the same: print money to suppress yields
And with yields RISING on the news, the market is telling us that 3x buybacks aren't nearly enough...
We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.
I think the software sector still has some nasty surprises in store:
$ADBE
I still expect new lows around $150.
As long as we don’t see a break above the green invalidation line at $433, this outlook won’t change.
$PANW
The recent surge should cool down.
I expect a pullback toward $246–$199 next.
As long as $PANW doesn’t break above its ATH, my view remains unchanged.
$SNOW
I expect a pullback toward $251–$175.
But to be clear: for me, that would be an insane opportunity.
As long as we don’t see new highs above the recent high at $384.56, this outlook won’t change.
And these three won’t be the only software names facing pressure...
$GOOG: Advertising + frontier AI lab + AI infrastructure. Trading at 22x 2027 earnings.
$META: Advertising + frontier AI lab + AI infrastructure optionality. Trading at 22x 2027 earnings.
$GOOG commands a premium valuation despite declining search thanks to its AI lab and compute infrastructure.
Meanwhile $META’s AI lab and compute optionality are valued at literally 0.
This will correct at some point.
$SPY $QQQ
The PPI Report
The key numbers which is the CORE (ex food and energy) Year Over Year (YOY) came in as expected at 4.6%
The CORE Month Over Month (MOM) came in slightly lighter at 0.2% on expected 0.3%
However… it’s all kind of meaningless as Oil and it’s real-time prices are whipping interest rates around - higher
WTI had just crossed over $100 per barrel and the 10yr just matched its 20 year high at 4.9%… when that occurred the Fedwatch probability for a rate hike jumped up to 70% from around 58% - that triggered algos to sell futures
The President tried Jawboning last night that he will end the war and get gas prices down after the election and that he even had good talks with Putin, but it did not bring down Oil prices, in fact they are higher today
The market wants to see factual evidence of deescalation and the war (Iran conflict) ending and potentially the Russian - Ukrainian war ending in order to cool off Oil which in turn cools off yields/interest rates
ECB HIKES RATES 25 BPS AS INFLATION RISKS RISE
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, as the Middle East conflict keeps inflation pressures elevated.
The ECB now sees inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with the latter two forecasts revised higher.
Growth forecasts were also upgraded, while the ECB stressed that future rate decisions remain data-dependent with no pre-set path.
Prepare your portfolios for the next 6-9 months:
- Hold at LEAST 10% Cash
- Have at LEAST 30% of your portfolio in Safe Havens/Hedges
- Crypto positions should be MAX 15% of your portfolio
- 30% MAX should be allocated in high beta, growth, pre revenue companies.
- Bonds are not considered safe right now
- Emerging markets should not be ignored
- Protect your portfolio with high FCF companies, Dividends and companies that have already completed an ABC correction with improving fundamentals
- Health is safe.
- DO NOT USE LEVERAGE
상황이 계속 점진적으로 악화되고 있는게,
옛날엔 금리가 오르고 유가가 오르면
투자가 줄고 소비가 감소했는데
요즘 뭐 어떤 새끼가
금리 높다고 주식 안 사고
기름 값 비싸다며 차 안끌고 다니냐
걍 부러지기 전 까지는 계속 돈 쓰는거임
수령님이 자꾸 주니까
나중엔 다 함께 부러지겠지