The current mining investment environment in early 2026 is a high-stakes geopolitical chessboard, where critical minerals (copper, lithium, nickel, rare earths) sit at the center of national security, energy transition, and great-power rivalry. ⛏️
Geopolitical risks dominate: US-China tensions, export curbs, tariffs, and resource nationalism are reshaping supply chains. Western nations push for diversification away from China-dominant processing, fueling policy-driven deals, stockpiles, and alliances (e.g., G7 coordination, Saudi reforms). But uncertainty from US politics, China's plans, and trade fragmentation creates volatility—miners risk becoming pawns in mineral security races.
Sector/company issues persist: Capital discipline reigns—companies favor M&A, shareholder returns, and brownfield tweaks over risky greenfield projects due to high costs, declining ore grades, deeper/complex operations, permitting delays, and productivity challenges. Juniors in critical metals may benefit from policy support, but majors stay cautious amid over-supplied pockets and execution risks. Despite headwinds, tailwinds are strong: Electrification, AI/data centers, defense, and battery storage drive structural demand for copper (tightening fast), gold/silver (safe-haven surges), and battery metals (lithium rebounding on storage boom). Many forecasts see prices edging higher in 2026, with M&A momentum building.
To 2027: Consolidation likely intensifies, Western secure-sourcing investments ramp up, and deficits emerge in key metals if supply lags. The push for resilient chains favors diversified, policy-supported assets—positioned players could capture outsized gains in a multi-year strategic commodities upcycle.
3 mining stocks/ETFs to watch:
REMX (VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF) — broad exposure to rare earths & criticals (top holdings include Albemarle, MP Materials, Lynas).
FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) — major copper play with strong growth outlook amid electrification demand.
RIO (Rio Tinto) — diversified giant in copper, iron ore, lithium; positioned for M&A and supply chain shifts.
Private equity investors trapped in China as top firms fail to find exit deals
Blackstone, KKR, CVC, TPG, Warburg Pincus, Carlyle Group, Bain Capital, EQT, Advent International and Apollo have been unable to sell or list their China-based portfolio companies this year, as Beijing’s crackdown on initial public offerings and a slowing economy leave foreign investors’ capital trapped in the country.
“There’s a growing sense among PE investors that China may not be as systemically investable as once thought,” said Brock Silvers, chief executive of Hong Kong private equity group Kaiyuan Capital.
9 VC firms collected half of all money raised by US funds in 2024
In 2024, 30 firms raised 75% of all capital raised by VC funds in the US. Just nine of them took in $35 billion—half of the total raised. And just one firm, Andreessen Horowitz, brought in over 11% of all capital raised.
it's that time of year again...
2025 PREDICTIONS are here!
(0:00) the besties welcome @GavinSBaker and recap ski week!
(5:38) biggest political winner
(9:26) biggest political loser
(17:34) biggest business winner
(32:43) biggest business loser
(46:54) biggest business deal
(57:04) most contrarian belief
(1:12:59) best performing asset
(1:22:56) worst performing asset
(1:30:19) most anticipated trend
(1:38:59) most anticipated media
(1:43:03) super predictions
(1:46:50) bonus: drones, ufos, and more
The top 10 open funds in the market today have targets totaling $129.6 billion, of which 36.2% has been collected in initial closings. This compares to $139.1 billion for the top 10 open funds at this point in 2023, of which 73.2% had been raised.
Private equity’s dry powder and booming AI, green energy, and M&A opportunities suggest 2025 is more about momentum than decline, it's a different game now.
Exciting strides in tech this week! Quantum teleportation over existing internet cables, a leap towards reversing cancer cell development, and chips now communicating at light speed for 10x efficiency.
The future looks bright! #TechProgress#QuantumLeap