My son just came over to me and said, “We’re lucky we own a Cybertruck.”
I told him we are very lucky to own one.
He then said, “Like, less than 2% of the people in the world own a Cybertruck, right Dad?”
Thinking about this for a minute, I realized how freaking cool it is that my son just did this!
“Less than 1% of people in the world own a Cybertruck, bud!”
“Dad, that’s awesome!”
*** Now I break out the calculator: 0.0008% of the global population (1 out of every ~125,000) owns a @Cybertruck.
$TSLA
Jumping from my Model Y into a gas car feels like driving a dinosaur. It can’t drive itself, you have to manually push the brake pedal at every stop, it’s over-the-air software updates are limited, the acceleration feels slow by comparison, and you have to push a button to start the car.
In Tesla’s words: Some buttons starts cars. Others start the future.
Just spoke to an elderly couple who are loving their new Model Y (it’s their first Tesla). I asked them if they’d tried FSD but said they found Autopilot brakes a lot so they didn’t think it was worth trying. Told them FSD is completely different and now I’ve convinced them to try it for a month 😉
If you think Tesla at ~$1.5 trillion is “overvalued,” I honestly think you’re still looking at the wrong company. There was NEVER a point in time where people thought Tesla was “fairly” valued, even on IPO day at a $1.7B valuation. This is normal when a company operates and moves so ahead of our time. Tesla is NOT a car company to me in this new book that’s being written. In this new book, Tesla is an AI robotics company building a global network of autonomous transportation vehicles and humanoid robots.
First, is Robotaxis / Cybercabs.
• The Cybercab is purpose built w/ no steering wheel, no pedals, two seats, at an ultra low cost.
• Production is slated to begin next yr 2026 at Giga Texas using Tesla’s Unboxed manufacturing process.
• A robotaxi can drive 50,000-100,000 miles per year, vs ~12,000 for a personal car.
• At just $0.25 per mile, one vehicle will be able to generate $12,500-$25,000 per year.
Now, when you scale this…
• 1M robotaxis → ~$15-25B/yr
• 10M robotaxis → $150-250B/yr
And that’s just 1-2 product lines! The global mobility market is ~$10 trillion. If Tesla captures even just 20% of that, that’s $2 trillion in annual revenue potential!
Just fyi, Uber today is valued at ~$150B… and still pays drivers. All while, soon Tesla’s Robotaxi network will be humanless, on top of Tesla owning the vertical stack of building and scaling its own vehicles.
Second, is Optimus.
This is where I think things will go exponential. Right now Optimus is moving into pilot production, with volume ramps planned for 2026+.
• Target cost: $20K-$30K per robot
• Will easily replace $50K-100K+ per year in human labor
• Same AI neural net stack as FSD is being leveraged for Optimus, constantly improving with scale, a major advantage no other company has today.
Even with conservative math:
• 1M Optimus robots × $25K= $25B in revenue
• 10M units = $250B
• 100M units (global labor scale) = $ trillions annually!
Every Optimus will be a factory worker, do logistics, construction, healthcare assistance, home tasks, dangerous jobs, basically everything humans don’t want to do and want to do. This is where Tesla’s new mission of “amazing abundance” is unlocked.
Today with the market valuing $TSLA at $1.5T, it’s basically saying:
1/ EVs + energy = fair value
2/ Robotaxi = maybe someday
3/ Optimus = ignore it, it probably won’t happen
This is where the opportunity exists for all of us.
Now that Elon’s 2025 comp package has been approved, and his 2018 pay package is reinstated by Delaware Supreme Court, him and the team are locked in. Elon does not get paid unless these milestones are achieved in the next book of Tesla.
• Market cap from $1T → $8.5T
• 20M vehicles delivered
• 10M active FSD subscriptions
• 1M Optimus bots in the world
• 1M Robotaxis on the road
• All while reaching up to $400B in adjusted EBITDA
(FYI, MANY still think these milestones will never be achieved bc it looks ridiculous today)
But when Robotaxis go fully unsupervised and is flooding cities, while Optimus ramps into the millions, I believe Tesla being an automaker will be a distant past memory.
It’ll be known as a
• A global transportation utility
• A labor company
• An AI platform
• An infrastructure layer for a post-scarcity world
• THE company that built a sustainable, amazing abundance future.
Tesla at $1.5T does not reflect what’s coming and when the market finally gets it, I don’t think there will be much time to catch up. Buckle up everyone. I’ve never been this bullish on Tesla’s future.
I can’t think of anything more boring than sitting in a car letting it drive itself.
I didn’t buy a Tesla to let it drive me, I bought it because I enjoy driving it⚡️