jules

“Don’t like cars, don’t like presidents, don’t like stars” - blaze foley

[jules @08jules_]

Sorry yall I wanted a shirt

[jules @08jules_]

Thanks GW foreign film club! 🥳🥳🥳#mickey17dc @mickey17

[jules @08jules_]

okay so we are now admitting it’s a problem after saying it doesn’t transmit to humans for a year. If yall are pretending to be concerned about deregulation under Trump can you please start with masking

[CDC Flu @CDCFlu]

#H5N1 #birdflu symptoms may include fever or feeling feverish or chills, eye redness or irritation, and respiratory symptoms, such as cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, muscle or body aches, headaches, and tiredness. More: https://t.co/1bGJAhYH9F

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Aug 2, 2024 (U.S.)

Expect 2 more weeks of very high and stable transmission before the summer wave accelerates.

Currently at an estimated 850,000 daily infections, 1 in 56 Americans contagious, 43,000 resulting Long COVID cases/day.

Deep Dive:
Over the next two weeks, we should see very high and stable transmission, before transmission increases rapidly. Note that transmission estimates are down marginally – of no practical impact – relative to last week. One might be tempted to consider that the summer wave is subsiding. That might be a 5-10% probability.

This is where the model gets interesting. The forecasts are derived from a combination of recent patterns in transmission (levels, change, rate of change, rate of rate of change) as well as historical medians for that date. If only using the recent patterns, a decline in the wave would be reasonable.

However, the historic data capture all of that useful information on variation in human behavior (back to school, end of summer vacations, flights, Labor Day) that focusing only on recent patterns would miss. Because behavioral patterns also fuel viral evolution, these historical data also get, to some extent, at the idea of viral evolution of new variants, which we do not track directly in the model.

When considering the forecast, view it two ways. One, based on current trends and historic data, this is what we would expect. Two, if human behavior defied historic trends, we could see something much different, such as a wave subsiding if everyone were more cautious than average this year, or unfortunately something slightly worse than predicted due to the decline in public health guidance on mitigation.

According to the composite forecasting model, that means hovering between 700,000 to 1,050,000 infections/day over the next month. Transmission is very high, and we may reach a later-summer peak of 1.1-1.3 daily infections around September 11.

Although the forecast is for steady transmission over the next two weeks, the forecast is volatile due to quality issues with incoming data.

Schools, medical facilities, and businesses should now escalate precautions and prepare for the disruption of a high percentage of the population getting sick through the remainder of 2024.

[jules @08jules_]

since I never tweet on this account anymore might as well do a double header and ask what the fuck does this mean

[jules @08jules_]

wearing a mask works man, I was sick for 1/2 a day the entire year. Freshman flu proof

[jules @08jules_]

@theaffiscondo @neoaky Glad this is my legacy

[jules @08jules_]

@jpick45 @tonyhawktruther even a singular baby shoe and I’m full sending it

[jules @08jules_]

@jpick45 @kristnmerrilees

[jules @08jules_]

@_beachf_gz the only thing I care at all about south anymore is the insane Zionist drama

[jules @08jules_]

@_beachf_gz ruined my day to find out we weren’t getting gen 5

[jules @08jules_]

@znickleless zach I would kill myself for this opportunity live it up

[jules @08jules_]

@jpick45 @znickleless @jules836687671 OHHH SHITT

[jules @08jules_]

@sokkasukii YEAHHH

[don hertzfeldt @donhertzfeldt]

i just went to pick up tacos and the whole time this guy was staring into the pita place

[Robinet de Shanka 🔻 @robinet_ii]

This needs boycotting big time.

#eurovision2024 #BoycottIsrael

[don hertzfeldt @donhertzfeldt]

this is what the floor looks like in the san jose airport

[jules @08jules_]

@reenie_05 thanks

[jules @08jules_]

scenes from my A-earning art history portfolio