Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because ... the 4 year cycle!?
IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was very profitable last 3 cycles. But, 3 cycles is not enough for a reliable pattern, and it is absolutely not guaranteed that the top is again 18 months after the halving (Oct'25!). Also, S2F model says nothing about tops or bottoms, only about the average price level in a halving cycle, assuming a fundamental phase transition (as described in the S2FX article, on my website in the bio). So IMO the top could very well be in 2026, or 2027, or 2028 ... actually I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom).
What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle. Realized price (grey line) has not diverted from 200 week moving average (black line), RSI has not been 80+ (red) etc. Either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates (e.g. 1%-10% btc) and rebalancing (sell after pump and buy after dump, to keep exposures within mandate). Both scenarios are very bullish for bitcoin. Also, IMO there can not be a big bear market without a big jump (red RSI 80+ and grey realized price diverting from black 200wma).
To be clear: I think blaming Bitcoin for the end of the dollar is like blaming the parachute for the plane crash.
The money printing scaled way before Bitcoin scaled. But many won't get it.
This is the most significant chart in financial markets.
It's Bitcoin - measured with a 200 week moving average (aka 4 years at a time).
Zoom out, and the truth becomes crystal clear:
Bitcoin has never lost purchasing power.
What does this hint at?
Bitcoin is the most reliable savings technology on Earth.
Look to the next tweet in this thread to see that every other asset is bleeding against BTC, because every other asset is inferior to BTC.
What if our obsession with productivity is just our way of fighting mortality? 🧵
I've been thinking lately about why we're all so desperate to squeeze more productivity out of our days. Maybe it's not just about efficiency - maybe it's our way of trying to grab a little more life before our time runs out.
When I first read Oliver Burkeman's "Four Thousand Weeks," I felt like I could finally exhale.
His perspective helped me see the heartbreak of being finite in an infinite world - and find some peace in the process.
@RaoulGMI@AndreasSteno Im curious,
Is there a chart that shows the maturation of US gov debt over time?
I keep hearing a good chunk of the debt matures this year, but seeing the timeline visual of that would help.
Subtle reminder that you're supposed to feel overwhelmed.
It means you're doing something new. You're taking a new path. You're learning. Growing. You branched into the unknown. It will be frustrating. You will feel lost. It will be painful, but staying the same is even worse.
I think culture needs to normalize around the idea of slow texting: If I haven’t replied to you, it means I haven’t looked at my phone. And if I’m not looking at my phone, I’m in my good place.
to expect instant responses from others is to hope for them to not be fully absorbed in their own present. could any hope be less loving?
what if we saw all our slow text convos as a win and stopped taking it so damn personally?
I’m officially at the age I don’t wanna be around people who aren’t self aware.
continuously putting themselves in bad positions, making bad life choices, toxic ways/lifestyles, no priorities lacking accountability etc.
with all due respect, i no longer go out of my way for others. i match the effort you show—if you reach out, i'll reach out; if you include me, i'll include you.
One of the biggest lies about psychiatric medications is that they "work" long-term.
None of the studies show what happens to people on the drug compared to placebo beyond 12 weeks.
What I used to see all the time was the drugs wearing off after 6-12 months.
People’s brains just adapt to them because they fight off the effect of these chemicals.
At that point, the dose keeps getting raised or new drugs are added to try and maintain the effect.
Fast forward 10 years, and now they’re on 5 or 6 meds and completely disabled.