A ~25% fall that recovers in 8 months and a ~25% fall that's still deepening after 18 months are NOT the same bear market
One tests your nerve, the other tests your conviction
In this post we cover the two types of bear markets, why the current one is nothing like 2022, and what it means for your portfolio
Link: https://t.co/GVbAXDLLU6
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Don't book ₹1.25 lakhs of LTCG before reading this
You may have to pay ₹62,400 in taxes
Applicable for those making around ₹12L from salary/OI
Those making ~₹50L/₹1 Cr may also fall in higher surcharge slabs
Infographic by @RupeetoolByFGM Retweet to spread awareness🔁
I ran some of my writing through an AI checker. 29.7% robot-generated! Thing is, it obviously wasn't. Ethical and creative reasons aside, the book in question is nearly a decade old - well before technology could do this. 1/3
Median drawdown in stocks with MarketCap below 3,000 Cr from their 2017-18 peaks had reached around ~65% pre covid
Currently, median drawdown is ~63%
This gives a good insight into where we stand currently
We are likely around the phase of maximum pain
With an additional 5-10% of downside, the worst of the correction would probably be over
Exciting times ahead✅
@CalmInvestor@CalmInvestor can you update this post and tell what is current median drawdown now? Suspect it maybe approaching 40%
Also is there a way to incorporate time correction as a metric to get more holistic picture?
Anthropic has triggered four separate stock market selloffs in less than four weeks. Today makes five.
It started February 3 with Cowork legal plugins. Thomson Reuters dropped 16% in one session, its worst day on record. LegalZoom cratered 20%. FactSet fell 10.5%. Jefferies traders called it the “SaaSpocalypse.” Then Opus 4.6 launched on Feb 6, and financial data stocks bled again. Feb 20, Claude Code Security hit cybersecurity: CrowdStrike down 8%, Cloudflare 8.1%, JFrog 25%, the Global X Cybersecurity ETF at its lowest since November 2023. Yesterday, a blog post about COBOL modernization sent IBM down 13%, its worst day since October 2000, erasing $31 billion in market cap. The Dow dropped 820 points.
Today: enterprise connectors for FactSet, S&P Global, LSEG, DocuSign. Private plugin marketplaces. Industry plugins across finance, HR, engineering, and wealth management.
The iShares Software ETF has fallen 35% from its September peak. Software is having its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis. The sector’s 21% underperformance versus the S&P is the worst relative drawdown ever recorded, exceeding the dot-com bust. Hedge funds made $24 billion shorting the space in the first week of February and are increasing their positions. Price-to-sales ratios across SaaS compressed from 9x to 6x.
All of this from product announcements by a company that didn’t exist four years ago and now runs $14 billion in annualized revenue, growing 10x year-over-year for three consecutive years. Claude Code alone generates $2.5 billion annually nine months after public launch. 500+ customers spend over $1 million a year. $380 billion valuation after a $30 billion Series G two weeks ago.
But today’s partner list is the real signal. FactSet, S&P Global, LSEG, DocuSign. These are the companies whose stocks got destroyed three weeks ago. FactSet doesn’t build a connector to the platform that just torched its market cap unless its internal models show that fighting Claude costs more than joining it. DocuSign and Intuit rallied on their partnership announcements.
Three weeks from existential threat to distribution partner. IBM didn’t partner. IBM lost $31 billion yesterday.
Anthropic is running the AWS playbook at 10x speed. The companies that survived cloud built on it and accepted thinner margins for broader distribution. That compression is now hitting every knowledge-work SaaS vertical at once, and the companies lining up to build connectors already did the math on what happens if they don’t.
The software ETF is down 15% in February. Anthropic shipped something on four separate occasions this month. Each time, billions evaporated. Today they’re hosting an enterprise briefing. Salesforce reports earnings tonight.
There is no precedent for AI as a technology
No technology has ever improved at a double exponential rate with new capability unlocks every few months
Electricity, planes, auto etc ? Low single digit improvement and no major change in the core function
Internet ? Yes it’s faster by 1000x but has the core capabilities changed as much ? Same for mobile
AI is very different that the double exponential is leading to new capabilities every few months
It’s like your car is able to fly within a year and then evolves into a rocket after that. Not just faster, but a very different form of transportation
The implication is that every time a new capability unlocks we will get another round of technology shock, similar to what we saw with the software and IT services companies
These and other industries will not go extinct but the business model will change. As this churn happens, there will be a lot of losers and with that terminal values crash till we uncover the new winners
Strap your seatbelts - we are in for a wild ride