Zero Meter Chasers

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[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

There is also some precip falling and some may wonder what type is it?… Hail, Sleet?… it’s actually Graupel! They look like * Dip n’ Dots * falling due to super cool air aloft above us but still warm at the surface. These will taper off as we get into the evening.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

2:45PM CST-

A typical November day it feels like… low to mid 50°s… raw, cloudy with intervals of sun and Cool. Via Kentucky Mesonet

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

Thursday 11/12 Forecast:

After a stormy evening last night wind small hail and gusty wind reports, we will settle back into November standards with temps seasonal in the 50°s. Dry, cooler Northwest flow on backside of the Front with intervals of Sun.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

9:30CST-
The line of storms continue to *wane* as they approach the TN line and Lake Cumberland area. Heaviest part is from Scottsville to Summer Shade area along KY-100 dropping SE. Gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 will be the main hazard.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

Hey @NWSLouisville , this was sent into us few minutes ago off our Facebook Page from Darren Johnson out in Plum Springs (Warren Co) looking North as that cell was passing through Eastern Edmonson Co near KY-101 as you come down the hill into Warren Co. There was some brief rotation for a few minutes on velocity.

Thanks
-@I65WxSils

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for this cell moving out of Eastern Warren into Barren Co. Winds up to 60 and Hail up to quarter size is possible. Some weak, very broad rotation is with this as well.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

Our storm chaser @moebro7 captured this view of a shelf cloud and potential lowering off Cumberland Trace in Bowling Green just now! @NWSLouisville #KYwx

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

Bit of a *nudger* trying to cause some mischief along KY-101 along the Warren/Edmonson line where a little notch has appeared causing some broad rotation. No warning has been issued, but a weak MesoLow is trying to spin around moving East toward Smiths Grove and points East.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

8:15PM CENTRAL~

So far, the line of showers and some strong storms are pushing off to the East and Southeast into Central/South-Central KY. Good news, NO WARNINGS are in effect. Heaviest part of the line is over Larue Co where some gusty winds are moving through Buffalo, just passing Hodgenville. Another area of heavier storm activity is over Butler/Warren Co area where the tail end is flanking as some gusty winds are possible moving toward Bowling Green and points North in Brownsville vicinity. Majority of the storm reports have been some gusty winds and small hail up to 1" and Nickel size. We may see a couple more warnings next hour, but the line itself along this Cold Front will be on a gradual *weakening* trend marching East past I-65. As you see on the back side, Winds have now turned out of the North and West as much cooler and drier air is filtering in this evening.

-Mike

[Cons @ConsWx]

TIME LAPSE of the tornado formation SE of Terre Haute, IN this evening. 10x speed from my phone over 8 minutes 🌪 #inwx

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

4:05PM CENTRAL:

Right Now, best area of seeing Severe Storm chances is shaded in that purple area where best energy is currently. Storms will maintain the wind/hail threat; however, if they get robust and isolated, a low end Tornado spinup can't rule out next few hours as they press off to the East and Southeast. Later as the evening goes on, new cells should line up farther South and West in Western Ky moving East toward I-65 corridor. Mainly gusty winds with this line after 6PM. Keep an eye on that near Jasper and NW of Evansville for folks in Southern IN.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

* JUST IN*
THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for much of Southern IN and parts of Kentucky (W of I-65). Main hazards will be gusty winds and hail; a brief Spinup or two can’t rule out until 10PM Central.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

*UPDATED*

The SPC just upgraded parts of Southern IN and areas along & West of I-65 in a Slight Risk for Strong to Severe Storms. They elevated the wind and hail risk to 15%. Tornado threat still remains Low for tonight.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

Starting to see some clouds building West of the Wabash along the IL/IN line moving East/ESE. Showers and storms will slowly increase next couple hours in Northwest KY/Southern IN soon.

[I-65 Weather (Kentucky) @I65WxSils]

Personally my thoughts have remained unchanged for today. It’s really a low end, conditional setup. Not all will see a Strong (maybe Svr?) storm. All hazards are in play, with low end risk. 🌪️ risk is very low. But 3CAPE has small window along with same area as 0-1KM SRH.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

Late Afternoon/Early Evening:

We continue to watch the Storm chances where I drew in Blue of some Strong (some Severe) Storms mainly from 3-10PM as they move ahead of a Cold Front. *Not* a big event, gusty winds/lightning remain main hazard. A very small spinup can’t rule out.

[Zero Meter Chasers @0meterChasers]

Late Afternoon/Early Evening:

We continue to watch the Storm chances where I drew in Blue of some Strong (some Severe) Storms mainly from 3-10PM as they move ahead of a Cold Front. *Not* a big event, gusty winds/lightning remain main hazard. A very small spinup can’t rule out.

[Chris Evans @Kentucky_WX]

Low-end severe risk posted in Kentucky today! Latest forecast video is live on @0meterChasers YouTube!

Keeping an eye on observations and radar and will likely head out for a storm chase in central Kentucky later today. More to come! #KYwx
https://t.co/FAk58s9s6p

[Chris Evans @Kentucky_WX]

Low-end severe risk posted for tomorrow! Snowflakes possible this weekend? Covering the latest data! https://t.co/Pb2UyDdmlu

[I-65 Weather (Kentucky) @I65WxSils]

Since we are sort of limited now without good Mesoscale Data, it’s good to look at HRRR and the REFS. 12/18z is a little skewed, from comparing but as a “whole” the image on Left is cross section at 500mb. In Yellow is left exit region where better Storm chances are poss on Weds.