The reason why PumpFun $PUMP trades at a lower revenue multiple than Hyperliquid $HYPE is pretty straightforward:
1. Investors view perps (Hyperliquid) as having more durable revenue with larger future growth potential beyond the crypto sphere, than memecoin launchpads (PumpFun) which are solely retail gambling focused
2. PumpFun has notable team/investor token unlocks creating ongoing sell pressure and VC overhang for holders/buybacks to absorb, whereas Hyperliquid has unlocked/sold only a fraction of what they could have and has no VC overhang to deal with
3. PumpFun sold both tokens and equity to investors, creating a dual token vs equity conflict of interest misalignment problem with unclear boundaries of value accrual, whereas Hyperliquid has not sold equity and just has token
4. PumpFun has already reduced token value accrual from its buyback and burn mechanism from 100% to 50% of revenues, whereas Hyperliquid remains 99% of revenues, discretionary decision token holders had no say over
5. People generally don’t trust the PumpFun team nearly as much as they Hyperliquid, e.g., team promising an airdrop and not doing it, etc
6. Bad vibes associated with investing in memecoin platforms, akin to investing in payday lenders or private prisons, vs Hyperliquid being a more ‘clean’ bet on 24/7 markets that is more Wall Street digestible
Could any of this change at any time? Yep, and that’s a fine thesis to have
Will HYPE or PUMP perform better in short term? I have no idea, I hope both do well
But the difference in historical and current valuation between the two assets is not inexplicable and it’s not just a trust issue
hyperliquid:native
Closed the swing short from 75s at 62s last week... (see previous tweet)
This is looking promising for another stab at the highs again should bitcoin continue pushing on... that will be key for me... currently long
Secondary confluential factor is price is once again trading back above its daily 12/25s
You can only buy Bitcoin when everyone has left it for dead.
The beauty of the asset is not that it goes up, it’s simply that it provides extremely easy bottom entries compared to the rest of the world.
At some point, it will go sideways. Everyone will leave it for dead, and then it will rerate higher massively.
The key is to wait for the economist to put out an obituary.
$HYPE, $ZEC, and many others are great reminders that opportunity never fully disappears.
Even in a market that gives you every reason to be negative.
Make friends. Be positive. Join communities. Stay present.
The people who stay engaged during the hard times are always the ones who capitalize when opportunities come up.
@0xaporia Would the strategy of letting the market choose the leader, or simply betting on the strongest coins, be an example of this? As in these strategies sucks ass..
Crypto is paying a high price for years of altcoin scams and grifts. It can feel like a toxic industry where very little value is created.
It's easy to feel disillusioned and wish you were focusing on AI-related trading, businesses, or working at a startup in that sector. Many companies and investment firms have already begun the rotation out of Crypto. Don't let your apathy make you unproductive; it's your personal responsibility to continue learning about the world. If you feel the call of the wild, then go.
For the ones brave enough to stick around, not only will the risk-reward be as asymmetric as it's been in recent history, the concentration of upside in a handful of assets will make it EASIER to generate massive returns. There is less capital looking at Crypto exposure than ever before. This all changes with a rapid repricing in Bitcoin this year, which I believe is inevitable.
For a long time in Crypto, nothing felt buyable due to an excess of capital being forced to deploy in a sector with limited opportunity. We're in a new regime now.
We're reaching a similar level of apathy that I felt during 2019 and 2022. I almost quit Crypto to go back to TradFi. It's no surprise those were the years where I generated the bulk of my returns (sans Hyperliquid).
Outside of trading, if you're passionate about the space, companies that are still building during this period will be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable reacceleration of this industry. Working at top-tier companies in the space is more accessible than ever due to a shortage of people entering the field.
Don't undervalue your time.
I can't wait to be properly locked in again, checking dozens of charts a day, researching new narratives and reading the many telegram group chats.
But right now, the market environment is just not right for that. If you spend too much time watching a bad market, you will see trades that aren't there and only end up wasting time, energy and capital.
The best thing you can do during times like these is stay up to date, mark out high timeframe levels and work on your leaks as a trader.
Then you're ready for when the market environment gets better and crush it afterwards.