三石纪

Indie App Dev | Options & Polymarket
独立开发者，业余期权与预测市场玩家。
关注代码、胜率与非对称机会。

[三石纪 @0x3stone]

$GOOG 盘前跌 11%，但我依然看好谷歌

盘前跌了 11% 左右。财报和电话会我都看完了，总结一下关键信息。

一、财报关键信息

收入 1276 亿，+25%。云收入 307 亿，+103%，营业利润 111 亿（去年同期的 3.1 倍），利润率 36.2%。云的在手订单 5610 亿，55% 以上会在 24 个月内确认成收入。

搜索收入 633.5 亿，+12%，查询量增速五年最高。

难看的是 EPS：2.12，预期约 3.01。其中 0.55 来自权益投资的账面亏损，CFO 说主要是 SpaceX，不是现金损失。

自由现金流 -91 亿，里面有 52 亿欧盟罚款（2018 年那笔）和 32 亿库存增加（主要是 TPU 备货），加回去约 -6 亿。

capex 514 亿，+114%，全年指引 1950–2050 亿不变，2027 年显著增加。

二、我看好的几点理由

1. Gemini 4 Carbon 没掉队。Artificial Analysis 智能指数 59 分排第一，Arena leaderboard也是前三。Gemini 应用月活破 10 亿，API 用量是去年的 4 倍多。

2. TPU 明年会放量。库存从 24 亿涨到 133 亿，Kurian 说 TPU 系统的库存都对应已签合同，我理解是在为明年交付备货。

3. 谷歌云稳在三大云之列，这季 +103%。三季度末开始外租第三方算力，四季度加量，说明现在是产能跟不上订单。

4. 七巨头里我认为生态最好的还是谷歌：桌面有 Chrome 和搜索，手机有 Android，再加 YouTube、Maps、Play。移动端我预计会挖出更多 AI 广告的变现方式。

5. 搜索没死。官方只说总查询量创五年新高，没拆人和机器各占多少，我判断机器搜索的占比会越来越高。大模型和 Agent 做深度研究，最后还是要去网页里找信息，接下来看谷歌怎么变现。

三、潜在风险

搜索方面，AI Mode 变现低于传统搜索，管理层自己承认了，还说四季度压力会延续。

云方面，Q4 利润率大概率回落，第三方算力要加量，36.2% 别当基准。103% 里 TPU 系统占多少没披露，只说剔除后依然很强。

利润方面，0.55 加回去 EPS 约 2.67，仍低于预期。折旧已经 +49%，capex 还在涨，后面只会更重。

最大的变数是融资。自由现金流已连续两个季度为负（Q2 -59 亿，Q3 -91 亿），CFO 明说 TPU 备货和基建会继续压现金流。按全年指引倒推，Q4 capex 要 630–730 亿。Q3 已经发了 124 亿的股和 287 亿的债，回购归零，ATM 还剩 276 亿。我不排除短期还有一轮融资，股价可能还要消化一阵。

长期我还是看好谷歌。（个人观点，不构成投资建议）

[App Economy Insights @EconomyApp]

$GOOG Alphabet Q3 FY26:

• Revenue +25% Y/Y to $127.6B ($0.3B miss).
• Operating margin 32% (+1pp Y/Y).

☁️ Google Cloud:
• Revenue +106% Y/Y to $30.7B
• Operating margin 36% (+23pp Y/Y).

🔎 Search +12% Y/Y to $63.4B.

[三石纪 @0x3stone]

Claude，GPT $20 订阅该怎么用效率最高

有没有人跟我一样？Claude 和 ChatGPT 的$20订阅，却一直不知道该用哪个模型。

选最强的，5 小时限额、周额度一会儿就见底；选差一点的，又怕活干不好。

我对照了 Artificial Analysis 的测评和 Wokey 的额度实测，整理了一套用法，给大家参考 。

一句话总结：
规划、难题 → Opus xhigh / Sol max
写代码、重构 → Opus high / Sol high
整理、批处理 → Haiku max / Terra medium

别无脑开最高档：只多 1–2 分，成本却是 1.7–5 倍。详细看图👇

[Artificial Analysis @ArtificialAnlys]

Google’s Gemini 4 Carbon is the new #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5, and second only to Claude Opus 5.5 on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index

Gemini 4 Carbon scores 59 on Intelligence Index v5, driven by leading performance in complex reasoning, knowledge, and scientific tasks. It also has large gains in coding and knowledge work, particularly when compared to other Gemini models, but it is not leading in all these areas.

As with launch of Gemini 4 Argon, Gemini 4 Carbon is being rolled out to selected users and is not yet publicly available. Google is offering a 50% launch discount, with no confirmed end date. All our charts and figures use standard pricing for both Gemini 4 Carbon and Argon.

Key results for Gemini 4 Carbon with high reasoning:
➤ Gemini 4 Carbon leads the Intelligence Index v5, with the #1 score in 4 of the 9 Index evaluations: HLE-Diamond, Terminal-Bench-Science, AA-Omniscience, AutomationBench-AA. Carbon makes substantial gains elsewhere but is not leading in coding and knowledge work

➤ Behind only Claude Opus 5.5 on coding agents: With Antigravity CLI, Gemini 4 Carbon (high) scores 59 only 3 points behind Claude Code with Claude Opus 5.5 (max, 62) on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index. Carbon ranks second on both Terminal-Bench 4.0 (64%) and FrontierCode v1.1 (51%), behind Claude Opus 5.5 (max) at 56%. Google has historically underperformed in this area and so this improvement stands out

➤ Improved agentic knowledge work, but not yet leading: On AA-Briefcase, Gemini 4 Carbon (high) scores 1609 Elo, a 126-point improvement over Gemini 4 Argon (high, 1483), but still behind models including Grok 4.7 (xhigh, 1638), Muse Wonder (max, 1659) and Kimi K3.1 Pro (1678). The largest gain comes from Presentation, up 293 Elo to 1598, alongside a 120-point improvement in Analytical Quality to 1671

➤ Lower Cost per Task than Claude Opus 5.5 for comparable overall intelligence: Gemini 4 Carbon costs $7.76 per Intelligence Index task, ~23% less than Claude Opus 5.5 (max, $10.04) but ~1.2x GPT-6 Astra (max, $6.25). It uses 123k output tokens per task, 29% fewer than Claude Opus 5.5 (max, 173k). At the same $4/$20 standard pricing, its Cost per Task is in line with Gemini 4 Argon ($7.68), while scoring 9 points higher on the Intelligence Index

➤ Leading AA-Omniscience v1.1 score, with low hallucination: Gemini 4 Carbon scores 54 on our recently updated AA-Omniscience v1.1, 6 points ahead of Claude Opus 5.5 (max, 48) and 8 points ahead of Gemini 4 Argon (46). Accuracy (% correct) rises 10 points over Argon to 58%, while its hallucination rate rises from 4% to 11%. This is still the second lowest of any model, behind only Argon, compared with 50% for both Claude Opus 5.5 (max) and GPT-6 Astra (max)

Key model details:
➤ Context Window: 1M tokens
➤ Multimodality: Text, image, video, and speech input, with text output
➤ Pricing: $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens, the same as Gemini 4 Argon’s standard pricing, with a 50% discount. Cached input tokens receive a 95% discount ($0.20 per 1M)

Congratulations to the @GoogleDeepMind team!

[三石纪 @0x3stone]

@Tokocrypto @safepal YRYZY2Q2