@TheFlowHorse I am an algotrader and I have created something very similar. Wonder if the clanker is biased towards themes because some of our themes look similar
@quant_arb The quant world has always been full of larpsโฆ even the ones that post fancy math donโt make any money. First principles from good ideas and then use stats/ML/math not the other way around. Insane amounts of gatekeeping
And fwiw another great example of this is china. Their demographics crisis has affected both real estate and stocks. Also disproportionately affected real estate because the state subsidized expansion of housing. They didnโt do so with stocks to the same extent. The US has extensively manipulated both(and arguably stocks much more proportionally to China)
My point is that it is more than population but population growth has historically always been a requirement for assets to do well.
GDP per capita and productivity is a huge factor โ after all the US has mostly grown through innovation in tech and increased productivity (most of GDP growth).
Most stocks would do incredibly poorly in that regime though. That includes mag7(lots of their revenue is ads/consumer discretionary).
Would there be outliers? Sure, some single stocks would do well. I see real estate the same way. Lots of it would do poorly while thereโd be outliers.
The entire system works on growth. Even social security assumed continuous population growth(and so is debt otherwise becomes even harder to repay without pain)
The tech needs to have an end consumer. That is the ultimate purpose of it. Japan is > 50% tech/electronics/advanced industrials and adjusted for inflation the Nikkei is trading below its 1989 peak. Their currency is cooked, so are their bonds.
We already have infinite land in the US, it's location that matters(and where it's scarce). So yeah it'd add pressure in certain markets, agreed. Same in stocks. Specific stocks would do well but the market as a whole would go down.