@degentradingLSD But that cash flow won't be used for share buybacks, so it won't have a positive impact on the demand side, right? Also, a significant part of CoreWeave's new supply is coming from insiders, which makes it feel even more like a shitcoin project to me.
@Merridew__ There's too much friction in this business model. There's no way it can support the growth expectations implied by their current valuation.
@degentradingLSD What the market is really worried about is that, compared with DRAM, flash capacity is easier to expand, and Chinese manufacturers are less behind in terms of technology.
Theoretically, Samsung should follow the same US Department of Commerce export control rules as TSMC. However, the market rumor is that Samsung interprets the rules in a more "flexible" way, especially for customers who purchase many of their other services, such as IP, design services, and memory chips.
Everything you're saying sounds very reasonable, and I agree with most of it. But to make money investing, being right isn't enough. You also need to be right at the right time. Being right too early or too late can be just as disastrous, and I don't think I need to give examples.
Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML may eventually become the next Ford or General Electric, but not today, and probably not this year either.
Take the DUV example you mentioned. The DUV machines they currently produce can only be used for 28nm chips, which is already an oversupplied process node, while AMD just announced a 2nm-based chip cluster two days ago.
Either way, at this stage, I'm still choosing to buy the dips.
@thsottiaux I've seen a lot of people get switched to Work by default on the web, and they still thought they were using Chat. I guess those users were counted too.
@hosseeb@seanluomdphd Technically, it's possible to make that determination with a high degree of confidence. But this field is evolving so quickly - how do you codify such rules into law?
1/ There may be a surprisingly large relative-value trade hiding in OpenAI’s pre-IPO markets.
Bitget’s $PREOPAI and Binance’s $OPENAI perpetual both reference OpenAI—but they currently imply very different valuations.
Here’s the setup 🧵