The historic momentum sell-off got even more historic today. Capitulation for (at least) a bounce looks relatively near in AI-related stocks, but many charts are broken now, and will take an extended period of time in order to repair them.
$KOSPI topped out June 19th near 9,337 (monthly R) and has since round-tripped violently, now trading -6.4% on the day at 6,820, tagging through both weekly (7,063) and monthly (7,394) support. Momentum (RSI) rolling over hard from overbought.
This looks like distribution, not a dip. Meanwhile $HSTECH just carved a textbook reversal off 4,230 (monthly S), +2% today, reclaiming its 5-day average and weekly pivot zone. RSI curling back up from the low-30s. Structure suggests a base is forming after the multi-month bleed.
I think money that chased the Korea rally into June is now de-risking, and early flows are rotating into beaten-down China tech. Not calling a trend reversal yet but the relative strength flip between these two is the chart to watch this week.
$KOSPI topped out June 19th near 9,337 (monthly R) and has since round-tripped violently, now trading -6.4% on the day at 6,820, tagging through both weekly (7,063) and monthly (7,394) support. Momentum (RSI) rolling over hard from overbought.
This looks like distribution, not a dip. Meanwhile $HSTECH just carved a textbook reversal off 4,230 (monthly S), +2% today, reclaiming its 5-day average and weekly pivot zone. RSI curling back up from the low-30s. Structure suggests a base is forming after the multi-month bleed.
I think money that chased the Korea rally into June is now de-risking, and early flows are rotating into beaten-down China tech. Not calling a trend reversal yet but the relative strength flip between these two is the chart to watch this week.
I think the “software vs. AI” de-rating phase is likely behind us.
Anthropic’s latest model release, combined with the news that the U.S. has lifted restrictions on Fable, initially looked like another potential pressure point for software names. But this time, the software complex didn’t experience the same type of aggressive selloff we saw in prior AI-driven rotations.
To me, that’s an important signal. The market may be getting closer to exhausting the bearish repricing of software, while starting to re-focus on fundamentals, positioning, and relative valuation.
If price can hold here and we start to see a few constructive weekly closes, I think the setup improves materially for a rotation back into software equities. In other words, unless we get a fresh negative catalyst, the path toward a software rebound is opening up again.
This is bullish for : $NOW $NFLX $FIG $META
Alibaba $BABA jumps 4.7% in morning trade in @HKEXGroup following up on overnight gains in New York. Now trading at a 3% premium to the ADRs. Market liking the $AAPL integration of Qwen AI into Apple Intelligence #StocksToWatch
Anthropic is preparing investor meetings ahead of a potential IPO as soon as October, per Bloomberg.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are working on the listing.
The Claude maker was valued at $965B after its May funding round, reportedly surpassing OpenAI.