Denethor

a crypto journal

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Feels like the club is closing but people are going into the backalleys to continue dancing.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Looking to buy closer to 20k's in 3-4 months

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Nature is healing. SEC stuff is an inflection point but will take time for people to become bored and exit.

This feels like July 2019. IEO redux and it still took 4 months for people to drop their shit ICO deals & face reality (aergo,perlin)

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Sell ETH @ $1785,

43% long, 56% cash

Mean reversion is gravity. Will buy when $PEPE implodes.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

FWIW I still believe this is following the 2019 fractal very closely.

2019 you have a redux of what worked in the previous cycle (Binance IEOs). This time around, you have a redux of memecoins ($PEPE) and DeFi (BRC20).

Believe top is in for 2023.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Mean reversion is gravity. People ask "what is going to break us down now?"

Better question is "What is going to move us up now that bottom buyers are 2x and banking narrative can't?"

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Sold $29700 BTC and $1945 ETH
Sold 20% of BTC at 0.067

Bullish on ultrasound money

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

@0revenue I will buy as much ARB as you can sell me at $1.03

If interested let me know, will go through a trusted third party

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

@CanteringClark Yes, Fed swap lines increase the demand for the U.S. dollar in foreign markets. When a foreign CB has a swap line, it typically needs U.S. dollars to address a shortage of liquidity in its own financial system. It's effectively increasing demand for the currency.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

@ByzGeneral Usage of Fed swap lines and QE are two separate tools used by the Federal Reserve to address different economic challenges. While there may be some correlation between the use of swap lines and QE, they are not causally related and do not always occur in the same sequence.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Happy though that at the same prices in 2022, NW up about $5M

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

$11.7M - 484.5 BTC acquired at avg $24,179
$8.5M - 5463.05 ETH acquired at avg $1,593.24

Total Return so far: +$3.2M

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

In retrospect, my biggest mistake was not understanding that in crypto bear markets, it takes time to wash out the tourists. DeFi house of cards accentuated this reaction downwards. It's been a rough bear market but seems like an inflection point now.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

but cognizant that mini-cycles can exist in a steady accumulation phase.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

As glorious as this narrative shift is for BTC, validated by the price action relative to the banking contagion [this is literally what it's created for], I don't believe this is a secular bull trend yet.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

More akin to a 2019 echo. Real bull trends imho require fundamental innovations that lead people to think "this time it's different" [like defi summer]. I'm still pretty long (have been 60%-ish since FTX and haven't sold a cent of risk assets)

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

@MustStopMurad Or how about first refunding your LPs whose capital you freerolled into a degen long and got liquidated?

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

@MustStopMurad @STFX_IO Or how about first refunding your LPs whose capital you freerolled into a degen long and got liquidated?

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

$OP launching today - big hints onchain

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Thesis has not changed. Still believe there are better buying opportunities.

But I keep reminding myself I do not need to pick a bottom. If this really is a genuine bull market, there is plenty of money to be made.

[Denethor @0xDenethor]

Volatility is inevitable. Capitulation is optional.