0xEmoCat

🛻自由｜🏕️简单｜🥪活着｜🧾学习 |😡ISTP-T

[LEI @TheMarketMemo]

漲上去，有足夠多的頭寸獲利；
跌下來，有足夠多的現金承接；
不漲不跌，有足夠多的分紅吃利息。
做到這三點，你在金融市場就無敵了。

我就是這樣，你也可以。

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@Nazarick_eth r4的二手还好

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@0Xlynn03 牛牛牛🐮

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@Backpack_CN @armaniferrante 新年快乐🎉🎆🍾🎊

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@web3a99 @0xAllen 哈哈哈哈哈

[逻辑/Logic @Logic060]

《万字长文驳：区块链落幕论》

行情不好，什么鬼故事都出来了，我对 @LumaoDoggie 本身非常尊敬，很多内容都很好，所以本篇只对观点，希望老师不要生气～

为什么大家如此失望？

现在大家对区块链的失望，本质是上一个周期，大量创新被证伪的结果

但如果你了解过“技术成熟度曲线（Gartner Hype Cycle）”，就知道任何行业都有这个过程，包括互联网和AI

所谓的【使用场景缺失】，其实是太多不切实际的期望，被赋予给了区块链，而现在被证伪而已
就像2000年的互联网泡沫，也讲了很多鬼故事，比如：

❌ 无摩擦资本主义：互联网将消除生产者和消费者之间的一切“摩擦”，消费者直接从厂家购买商品，没有中介

❌ 信息高速公路：物理实体将彻底消失，在线零售将迅速终结所有实体百货，远程办公将让写字楼变废墟

❌ 赛博空间独立宣言：互联网将建立一个完全独立于肉身世界和政府管辖的“精神家园”，解决极权和官僚

是不是像极了之前的区块链？😂

先是要对抗政府，然后是Web3取代Web2，再又是元宇宙吞噬现实世界

包括什么链游、链上社交、元宇宙、供应链溯源、X-to-Earn、DAO、分布式存储这些概念，都是在过剩资本下，催生出的幻想

加息毁灭了一切，大量代币归零，期望越大，失望越大，现在破灭了，所以绝望

然而，这是一个新兴行业发展的必然过程，破灭中留下的，才是真正的价值

为什么合规不会杀死区块链？

有人认为，区块链能存活的场景，靠的是监管套利，认为只要监管追上，区块链大部分使用场景和价值将消失

这显然是倒果为因🫠

如果区块链本身和web2一模一样，只是监管的区别，那和传统的黑产、地下钱庄有啥区别？

那监管为什么要给这么多年套利的机会？为什么现在又搞加密法案，又要确保加密领先地位？直接重拳出击不好吗？

说明区块链有自己的价值

就像淘宝店、网约车、音乐平台一样，合规之后，消失了吗？没有，反而是更加强大了

KYC、AML反洗钱这些措施，必然会上，它不仅不会导致区块链消失，还会让区块链拓展到全球的个人、公司、金融机构和国家

因为顾虑没有了，只要区块链更有用，更有价值，大家都能用、都会用

那区块链的真正价值是什么？

不是什么抗审查、不可篡改，其实中本聪一开始就告诉你了，它在《比特币：一种点对点电子货币系统》中是这样说的：

我们需要的是一个基于密码学原理，而不是信任的电子支付系统。
该系统允许任何有交易意愿的双方能直接交易而不需要一个可信任的第三方。

简而言之，就是一套不依赖第三方中介的全球交易网络，或者说账本

今天所有金融体系的交易，都建立在第三方中介之上，都要靠中介的账本来记录交易、来清算和计算

✅ 支付：要通过银联、Visa
✅ 股票：要通过中证登、DTCC
✅ 债券：要通过中债登、FICC
✅ 商品期货：CFFEX、CME
✅ 期权：CSDC、OCC
✅ 衍生品：SHCH、LCH/CME

这导致两个显而易见的问题：

1️⃣ 成本高昂：每一类资产，都要建立一套全新的清结算系统，一套全新的账本，建设、维护成本极高。

比如支付宝、微信、Paypal、银联、Visa，是5套完全独立的账本，都需要投入同样的资源，来确保性能和安全，也就是重复造轮子

这导致交易费用极高，从整个社会的角度来说，维持不同的、割裂的交易体系，成本是非常高昂的

2️⃣ 拓展困难：每类资产，由于账本相互独立，资产实质上也是相互独立的，互通和组合非常困难。

比如支付宝的钱不能转给微信，A银行不能转给B银行，必须要通过银联或Visa，股票账户的钱不能算存款吃利息，基金账户的钱不能买股票

由于有中介，所以跨组织、跨国界、跨资产变得极其困难，各种资产使用不同的标准、不同的结算方式

区块链一开始就为此而生，不是赌场、不是元宇宙、不是web3，而是下一代全球金融的交易网络

✅ 极低的成本：一套网络，清结算所有资产，不管你是现金（USDC）、债券（AAVE的凭证）、股票（代币），还是什么其他的，都共用一套网络交易，账本从中介控制变成公共产品，建设、运维和交易成本被平摊，大幅降低

仅仅是支付，区块链的成本优势就极其明显，如果未来RWA上链，股票、债券等各类资产全部在链上交易，会进一步分摊网络成本

✅ 极高的拓展性：没有中心化中介，所有资产Token化，统一标准，编程、拓展、组合都可以自由进行，大幅提高资产的流动性

你持有USDC，表面上看是持有现金，实际上你在持有美债，它既保留了现金能支付、流通、购买商品和服务的作用，又能获取收益，还能随时购买各种代币资产

未来RWA，ETF可以存进AAVE抵押贷款，债券可以直接购买合约，Apple股票可以直接用来买英伟达

今天，从政府到金融机构，都在拥抱区块链

美国政府：通过法案，大力支持稳定币，利用区块链侵蚀别国主权货币，维持美元霸权，维护美债

纳斯达克：计划在2026年Q3推出代币化证券交易平台

DTCC：每年处理数千万亿美元的交易，正将美债和ETF代币化

贝莱德：代币化基BUIDL在2025年底规模突破90亿，持有的代币每天能自动生息，且可作为DeFi抵押品

SWIFT：2025年11月正式通过 Chainlink 的 CCIP 协议连接全球11,000家银行。

高盛、摩根大通：联手布局的Canton网络，FDV突破430亿美元，这种市场行情下，币价还在新高

但今天，整个行业都迷茫着失败的气息

币价在下跌、创新在消失、创业者在退圈、撸毛的在送外卖

放弃那些VC币、空气币、垃圾币，他们失败了，失败的从来都不是区块链，失败的只是过去不切实际的幻想

回归本源，回归价值，拥抱合规，合规不会杀死区块链，合规只会打开我们征服全世界的路

下一个周期，这里依然会有无数改变阶级的机会🎉

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@HappyQQ_AI 在社交方式没有重构前，概率很低。腾讯只要做到犯错就够了

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@ohyishi 还是差点意思，还需要从悲观到绝望😇

[OneKey 华语 @OneKeyCN]

OneKey Classic 1S Pure • BTC-Only 赤橙相见

这一次，全透明。
褪去外壳遮掩，精密内核一览无余。
延续零电池设计，只为比特币而生。
极致透明，表里如一。

🟠 现已开售

点赞，评论，转发本条推文，24 小时后选 1 位用户赠送 1 台 Classic 1S Pure • BTC-Only。

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@OneKeyCN 先买一个尝尝咸淡😇

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@xiaoyon52351223 目前两周好像还是1万交易量1分左右；可能是存款加成的缘故。

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

We either go big, or we go home.
@armaniferrante @Backpack

[Armani Ferrante @armaniferrante]

In the Backpack tokenomics, we have one guiding principle.

- Insiders "dumping on retail" should be impossible: no founder, executive, employee, or venture investor should receive wealth from the token until the product hits escape velocity.

Of course it begs the question, what does it mean to "hit escape velocity". Every project is different, and it's impossible to generalize. For Backpack, the answer is clear: we want to IPO in the USA. Going public might happen quickly, it might happen not so quickly, and in fact, it might not happen at all. In any case, we're going for it.

But before going public, we have to grow--a lot. The odd thing about Backpack's growth over the past year--and in fact one of the things that makes Backpack so different from basically every token project in crypto--is that, today, Backpack Exchange only serves about 48% of the world. We've been very slow, very intentional about opening up our product to the world, ensuring that we have every "i" dotted and ever "t" crossed as a regulated financial institution. Growth that sometimes feels like running with a parachute, but we are happy to take the long path, because it's precisely that parachute that will allow us to fly.

For those that don't know us, the reason for this is simple. Backpack is trying to not only build great crypto products, but we're also trying to build great TradFi products. We're trying to not only give our users access to every crypto asset, every blockchain, and every decentralized application, but we're also getting banking rails around the world, USD client money accounts in the USA, EUR in the EU, JPY in Japan--every currency on every major payment network you can imagine. We're trying to build a great securities product, whether that's getting access to your favorite stocks in a traditional brokerage or bidding on primary shares of a company about to go public on NASDAQ. We want to serve not only retail users worldwide, but we want to serve regulated products for regulated counterparties and regulated institutions around the world. All of this takes an enormous amount of time, effort, blood, sweat, and tears. We've been working on this for over three years at this point, laying an international foundation for the company and for the product slowly but surely, brick by brick. If we're lucky, we'll spend a lifetime.

What this all means is that, in the most literal sense--and I know this sounds silly--we're just getting started. We still have half the world to open up into. We still have some of our most exciting products to launch. And this leads to our next guiding principle in our tokenomics.

- Liquid tokens should exclusively go to users, fueling growth triggered by key product milestones.

Every time we open up a new region, every time we launch a new product, that's an opportunity to grow. Open up EU => grow. Open up Japan => grow. Open up the USA => grow. Open up predictions => grow. Open up stocks => grow. Open up card => grow. Like gasoline onto a fire, the token serves to continuously kickstart new markets in the same way points kickstarted Seasons 1-4.

With every growth lever we pull, tokens unlock in a predictable way to users, bringing in a new wave of token holders, growing the community, and allowing the product to soar to new heights. The objective constraint for this to work is precise: the value of added growth created by new token unlocks must always be greater than the dilution of those unlocks. As long as that condition holds, we can continue to unlock tokens direct to our most active users, growing along the way.

Last but not least is the question:

Ok so if all the liquid tokens are going to users, then what about the team? How exactly do you remain incentive aligned while ensuring the team cannot unlock, dump on retail, and become enormously wealthy without building something great?

And the answer is simple: not a single founder, executive, team member, or venture investor has been given a direct token allocation.

The entire "team allocation" sits in a "corporate treasury", i.e. on the balance sheet of the Backpack company--locked until at least one year post IPO. The team owns equity in the company, and the company owns a large percent of the token supply. It's not until the company goes public (or has some other type of equity exit event), that the team can earn any wealth from the project. It's not until the company has access to the largest, most liquid capital markets in the world by going public--and it's not until the company has done all the hard work to earn access to those markets--that the team can reap the rewards of the value created by the Backpack community from now until then.

We either go big, or we go home.

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@feng638061 你用吗？

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

#Backpack
BP不能用perp dex那套OI的模型去估市值，但是可以参考Hashkey, Coinbase, Kraken的现货数据来做个大概的估算，1B的初始FDV的概率还是蛮大的。 @Backpack

看到推上讲到，后续会IPO，叠加上它的合规。会不会重走Hashkey股票价格和代币价格倒挂的老路？在合规框架下，如何避免不走这个老路？

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@billtheinvestor “刻舟求剑”，短期，这里确实是较大赔率的好位置。

[老白｜LaoBai 🌊 👑 @bclaobai]

神鱼 @bitfish 做的刻舟求剑网站真的不错，hhh
想要的都在里面👇
https://t.co/esvsasrPT7

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@Web3Feng Maker更难了？应该是没人挂了吧？😂🤣

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@_FORAB 家庭对冲☺️

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@kiki520_eth @extendedapp 都是设置的指数价格止损？

[0xEmoCat @0xEmoCat]

@kiki520_eth 64700