endless

Content creator: AI, Crypto, Prediction markets

[endless @0xEndlesss]

Warren Buffett turned a failing textile mill into a machine that returned over four million percent, and he did it by being boring on purpose.

from 1965 to 2023 Berkshire Hathaway compounded at about 20 percent a year while the market did about 10. that gap sounds small. stretched over 58 years it is the difference between roughly 31,000 percent and more than 4,000,000 percent.

the method was never a secret. it is the one his teacher wrote down in 1949: treat the market as a moody partner who shouts prices at you, buy a business for less than it is worth, then do almost nothing.

he bought See's Candies in 1972 for 25 million dollars. it has since thrown off well over 2 billion in profit, and he almost never sold a share of anything he liked.

that is the part everyone skips. the edge was never a stock tip, it was the stomach to sit still for decades while everyone around him churned.

most people cannot do it. they trade because the screen moved, and the screen moving is the one thing his whole record says to ignore.

the talk below is him laying it out in plain words, and it is worth the hour.

the strategy is free, printed in his letters for anyone to read. doing nothing for thirty years while it quietly works is the part almost nobody survives.

These posts are the theory. the bot is what actually works.
I am opening it up, free, all of it.
comment "secret" in the comments to get it.

[Soloway @0xSoloway]

https://t.co/w1edMXWsEQ

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@Dain0x agreed!

[endless @0xEndlesss]

About 85 percent of people will call a detailed story more likely than the plain version of it, which is mathematically impossible.

in 1983 two researchers described a woman, then asked which was more probable: that she is a bank teller, or that she is a bank teller and an activist. the second is a slice of the first, so it can never be more likely. most people picked it anyway.

spin a wheel rigged to stop on 10 or 65, then ask what percentage of the countries in the United Nations are African. the wheel is meaningless. the people who saw 10 guessed about 25, the people who saw 65 guessed about 45. a random number they knew was random moved their answer by 20 points.

hand a room a clean four-card logic puzzle and about one in ten gets it right. dress the identical logic as a bouncer checking who is old enough to drink, and almost everyone does.

that is the part everyone skips. the house does not beat your knowledge. it rents the gap between what feels true and what is true, and that gap barely moves from person to person.

every edge, in a pit or in a market, is someone pricing that gap. the odds are printed and the logic is public, and the steady profit comes from the fact that a confident person bets against both anyway.

the case below is worth sitting with.

the logic is free. noticing that your own common sense is the thing being priced against you is the part almost nobody manages.

These posts are the theory. the bot is what actually works.
I am opening it up, free, all of it.
comment "secret" in the comments to get it.

[Soloway @0xSoloway]

https://t.co/w1edMXWsEQ

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@nofadsec 😅

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@batagonx fair, the frequency framing does most of the work there.

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@RyanOnnX exactly!

the story doesn't have to be wrong, just louder than the number

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@veraxlab the average arrives, you just have to still be there

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@Atenov_D curious how much is that to build

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@carbonyxxx insight doesn't change behavior - structure does

[endless @0xEndlesss]

Every options trader is quietly using a probability they know is false, and it is the only one that works.

take a stock at 100 that will be either 110 or 90 on the next move, with cash earning nothing. a call that only pays above 100 is worth exactly 5, and you can pin that number without knowing which way the stock goes.

the price comes from copying the option with stock and cash, a portfolio that pays the same in both outcomes. that copy costs 5, so the option costs 5. no forecast enters anywhere.

run it backwards and the false probability appears. the price behaves as if the stock rises 50 percent of the time, even when everyone in the room believes it rises 70 percent of the time. that 50 percent is nobody's real belief. it is the only number under which nobody can arbitrage you.

that is the part everyone skips. the market is not pricing what will happen. it is pricing what cannot be handed out for free.

this is the machine under every option desk. the real odds, the ones you argue about, never touch the price. a manufactured probability does all the work, and it is manufactured precisely so no free money is left on the table.

the case below is the clearest version of this I have found.

the pricing is free. accepting that your opinion about the odds is worth nothing to it, and that trading on that opinion is how you get taken, is the part almost nobody swallows.

These posts are the theory. the bot is what actually works.
I am opening it up, free, all of it.
comment "secret" in the comments to get it.

[Tigerflow @tigerfl0w]

https://t.co/Ye9wCJ9Jiv

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@veraxlab the 99% will surely ignore and pay extra, being humble is always a negative thing

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@limalemonnn i still ask this question to all these trading gurus, no one answers it

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@batagonx steady consistency is what matters in investing

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@mrcsxbt you automatically become hooked on your debts, and denying is on the block list

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@Ruzveltxbt wait.. he retired in 19 y.o, am i right?

[endless @0xEndlesss]

A perfectly rational person will refuse a coin flip that pays him money, and he is not being timid.

expected value says take any bet whose average is positive. flip a fair coin, win 110 dollars on heads, lose 100 on tails, and the average outcome is a 5 dollar profit. offer that around a room and almost nobody takes it.

the reason was written down in 1738. Daniel Bernoulli noticed that people do not value dollars, they value what dollars do for them, and the second thousand does less work than the first.

so the real ruler is not the money, it is a curve that bends, and on a bending curve a dollar lost costs you more than a dollar won pays you back. when this was finally measured, people wanted roughly 2 dollars of upside before they would risk 1 of downside.

that is the part the plus sign hides. expected value is the right number for a machine that plays forever. you play once, and you walk home whole or you do not.

read the same curve backwards and you get insurance. every dollar of home or auto premium buys back only about 60 to 70 cents of expected claims, a losing bet on average, and paying it is still the correct move.

the case below is the cleanest version of this I have sat through.

the arithmetic is free. knowing the one number it quietly leaves out, what a loss is actually worth to you, is the part that empties people out.

These posts are the theory. the bot is what actually works.

I am opening it up, free, all of it.

comment "Secret" in the comments to get it

[Tigerflow @tigerfl0w]

https://t.co/Ye9wCJ9Jiv

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@mrcsxbt sometimes even mistakes can't brake your goals

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@Ryomenex it definitely is, our perception is what it takes

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@0xLeohart i use that thing to see the correlation between BTC and ETH, tbh the strength is in simple things

[endless @0xEndlesss]

@vivaanix i have no clue how to earn by farming volume, and how does this edge could look like