Bitcoin has support at $58,000. I doubt it will hold. Once it gives way, Bitcoin could collapse below $50,000, testing the August 2024 low. If that support fails too, the next level is around $20,000. Strategy will have to sell a lot more Bitcoin to maintain its dollar reserve.
Half these daily crypto recaps read like copium, half like doomposting. But zoom out and the infra keeps getting built, adoption keeps creeping up. Still cautiously stacking. Anyone else numb to the daily noise? #crypto
Been digging through today's on-chain flows and the divergence between spot volume and derivatives OI is getting hard to ignore. Feels like positioning is quietly shifting before price does. Anyone else tracking this? #crypto
A lot of the quality altcoins are sitting at a generational bottom.
This is exactly what happened with AI and memory stocks a few years ago.
And look at them today.
NVIDIA went up 20x in the last 3.5 years.
AMD pulled a 10x since the 2022 bottom.
Micron has pumped 20x since last year, while SanDisk has rallied almost 85x.
I think this is exactly what's going to happen with crypto projects that are focused on trending narratives like RWA and stablecoins.
Projects like $LINK , $HYPE and $SOL that are consistently leading in tokenized equities and payment rails while creating value will be the biggest winners.
A lot of large cap alts sitting on $30B or $50B MCap are going to be $500 Billion companies in the coming years.
Honestly, the daily crypto recaps are starting to feel like a soap opera... every morning something new is either mooning or imploding. I've stopped reacting and just watch the chaos unfold. Anyone else feeling burnt out? #crypto
My 90 year old grandma made 10x with her random stock market portfolio while I'm down -90% on my well-researched Altcoins.
This is the worst time to be a crypto investor.
This year, the EF is decreasing its budget by roughly 40%, which entails some difficult decisions. The goal of the decreases was set out in the Treasury Management Policy last year: the EF is transitioning into being a long-term-oriented endowment-based organization, shifting from its pre-2026 average of spending ~15% of its remaining funds each year, toward a post-2030 target of ~5% per year.
Often, when an organization goes through something like this, people try to pretend that nothing of great value was lost, that it is an efficiency increase, that the only people cut are unproductive dead weight, and everyone else stopped partying, studied the blade, entered cracked S-tier beast mode, and this was sufficient to make up for the downside. I will not try to pretend this. I respect my EF colleagues far too much to pretend that there was not much that is lost. They are brilliant people. They are dedicated engineers of whom some have worked on the Ethereum protocol for nearly a decade. They have brought a bright light to the Ethereum ecosystem with their code, their words, their warmth as human beings and their actions. My dearest hope is that they find a path that brings them fulfillment and happiness whether inside Ethereum or outside. Hopefully many will be able to bring their excellent talents and mindset to the wider Ethereum ecosystem, or the even wider CROPS world.
Instead, I will try to explain what *are* some of the grand sacrifices being made. The Ethereum Strawmap is no small thing. It is an extremely ambitious undertaking seeking to replace and augment almost every part of the protocol - consensus, proofs, privacy, account model, state, and more. This is the third iteration of Ethereum, in the same way that the Merge was the second, even if the shipping style is less Big Bang and more one-piece-at-a-time. On top of this, the EF is increasing its role in the Access Layer. We are not compromising on Ethereum being a Deeply Impressive protocol, something worthy of its place in a world with quantum computing, rockets to Mars and powerful biotech and AI, and capable of meeting the challenges that this era will bring.
Some of the deficit will be recovered through more work happening outside the EF. But not all. So what are the grand sacrifices that will enable a leaner effort to accomplish all of this? I will give a few examples (though far from an exhaustive list):
* The multi-client model will shift in the direction of multiple clients existing less for _redundancy_, and more for _specialization_. Up to this point, redundancy has been the main security strategy: if one client has a bug, if it has less than 33%, the chain keeps going and does not even stop finalizing. We are increasingly exploring moving more pieces of the protocol to a different security strategy: AI-assisted formal verification. Some smaller pieces of Ethereum (eg. BLS libraries) have worked this way already for a long time. But soon many more parts of Ethereum will likely function on this model. This may greatly reduce resource requirements of shipping a large number of EIPs. The resources saved by client teams can ideally instead be used to better serve different specialized user needs, including EF Access Layer goals.
* PSE (Privacy and Scaling Explorations) is winding down as a unit. The number of people working on ZKPs for privacy and scaling is probably as high as ever, but they are working less on "exploration" and more on *implementing* ZKP-based privacy and scaling into the Protocol and Access Layer
* Devcon will likely over time become smaller-scale, somewhat more spartan, much lower-deficit than previous years, in addition to other changes in vision in line with the Mandate.
* Fewer beyond-Ethereum megaprojects coming from EF. As I announced earlier this year, I am taking on some of the responsibility of doing projects in this category that I consider valuable with my personal funds.
* EF institutional work is reducing in scope, specializing more specifically on creating replicable test cases of highly CROPS-friendly deployments, even if at smaller scale.
These do not explain all departures; in some cases they do not explain departures at all and rather explain _reduced need for new spending_. But they are a large part of the strategy at play.
In the longer term, I personally favor a "soft lean-and-done" approach to Ethereum: once the Strawmap is completed, generally stick to security fixes and small high-value changes, and have a much higher bar for considering new feature additions to the protocol. This allows Ethereum to remain capture-resistant without demanding very large budgets. Learn less from multimillion-line-of-code behemoth projects, more from bitcoin.
The past years have been a challenging era for Ethereum. However, the ecosystem is adapting, both inside the EF and outside, and I am confident that Ethereum is very well-positioned to succeed and thrive.
https://t.co/iZiOonRYzR
My July-September prediction:
1- We see the market dump towards the end of June. Everyone gets bearish, BTC dumps close to $60k again, and ETH to $1,500.
2- Market makers liquidate all the longs.
3- As soon as everyone becomes bearish, the market bounces back in early July.
4- Bitcoin hits $110k+ in July-August, and Solana follows it to $190-$240.
5- Then BTC dominance drops, money starts flowing into alts, and we see 2-3 months of MEGA ALTSEASON where alts pump 10x-50x.
6- We who hold alts are going to retire our entire bloodline.
Overall, I’m giga bullish on Q3.
told myself no charts this weekend. lasted about 3 hours before someone brought up SOL over the grill lol. fine, we're all bullish, now pass the burgers
dear noobs,
since people think SOL is paying shills, I will start actually paying you for this. real.
here's how:
- hold SOL
- stake it with Helius or swap into solana:he1iusmfkpAdwvxLNGV8Y1iSbj4rUy6yMhEA3fotn9A
- my validator will pay you in SOL with 0 fees taken
shalom