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Ippo
@0xIppo
@Polymarket researcher
Joined February 2024
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118 Followers
50 Posts
Berkshire chairman Warren Buffett:
"you do not have to be terrifically smart to do well as an investor."
at a Berkshire meeting, he and Charlie Munger break down what makes a company unbeatable - and what makes a great investor.
the moats they love were built over decades - Coca-Cola since 1886, See's Candy since 1921, Snickers #1 for 30-40 years and still unbeaten.
and here's the money catch, from Munger: "they're so damned obvious that the stocks sell at very high prices."
some moats form fast - Microsoft's OS, Disney after Snow White - but what rises fast can fall fast, just ask Arthur Andersen.
his whole method: "think of a stock as a business + a margin of safety + insulate yourself from the crowd" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon:
"runs the biggest bank in America - and just admitted AI will likely leave it with fewer employees in five years"
at Davos 2026, he explains why he's deploying it hard anyway, and where he thinks the real danger is.
500 AI use cases → 150,000 staff on it every week → "the tip of the iceberg"
"if you put your head in the sand you will lose" - that's the whole stance.
on automating 2 million US truckers overnight: "you'll have civil unrest."
~$4 trillion in assets, AI in every process, and a CEO openly planning for a smaller headcount.
Bookmark this and watch the full interview ↓
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon:
"runs the biggest bank in America - and just admitted AI will likely leave it with fewer employees in five years"
at Davos 2026, he explains why he's deploying it hard anyway, and where he thinks the real danger is.
500 AI use cases → 150,000 staff on it every week → "the tip of the iceberg"
"if you put your head in the sand you will lose" - that's the whole stance.
on automating 2 million US truckers overnight: "you'll have civil unrest."
~$4 trillion in assets, AI in every process, and a CEO openly planning for a smaller headcount.
Bookmark this and watch the full interview ↓
Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman:
"started the firm with $400,000 - today it runs more than $1.3 trillion"
at a talk to new analysts, he explains how he built it with zero investing experience and a brutal hit rate.
17 nos for every yes → 400 offering circulars → 32 investors → "finance is not about math"
"if you don't raise the money, you don't have a company" - that was the whole game.
asked what he'd tell his younger self: "Don't put yourself under as much pressure as I was under."
40 years later, the largest alternative asset manager in the world.
Bookmark this and watch the full talk ↓
Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman:
"started the firm with $400,000 - today it runs more than $1.3 trillion"
at a talk to new analysts, he explains how he built it with zero investing experience and a brutal hit rate.
17 nos for every yes → 400 offering circulars → 32 investors → "finance is not about math"
"if you don't raise the money, you don't have a company" - that was the whole game.
asked what he'd tell his younger self: "Don't put yourself under as much pressure as I was under."
40 years later, the largest alternative asset manager in the world.
Bookmark this and watch the full talk ↓
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"compared AI to nuclear technology"
at the 2024 Berkshire meeting, he explains why a technology this
powerful makes him uneasy, the same way splitting the atom once did.
he says AI is already part way out of the bottle, and the scary
part is that no one really knows how to put the genie back.
"world-changing upside + we let the genie out + can't put it back" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"compared AI to nuclear technology"
at the 2024 Berkshire meeting, he explains why a technology this
powerful makes him uneasy, the same way splitting the atom once did.
he says AI is already part way out of the bottle, and the scary
part is that no one really knows how to put the genie back.
"world-changing upside + we let the genie out + can't put it back" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"You want to hang out with people who are better than you. You'll go in their direction."
at the 2025 Berkshire meeting, a young investor asked his best early-career lesson. The answer wasn't about stocks.
"who you associate with + work you'd do for free + a happy person lives longer" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"You want to hang out with people who are better than you. You'll go in their direction."
at the 2025 Berkshire meeting, a young investor asked his best early-career lesson. The answer wasn't about stocks.
"who you associate with + work you'd do for free + a happy person lives longer" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei:
"We're now using Claude to develop our models and quickly develop products."
in an hour-long Bloomberg interview, he reveals how the fastest-growing AI company ships so fast.
"unified culture + Claude building Claude + reliable acceleration" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei:
"We're now using Claude to develop our models and quickly develop products."
in an hour-long Bloomberg interview, he reveals how the fastest-growing AI company ships so fast.
"unified culture + Claude building Claude + reliable acceleration" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"We're paying a 21% rate on the Apple gains. We don't mind."
at the 2024 Berkshire meeting, he explains why he sold 115 million Apple shares.
still his #1 holding + harvest gains at 21% + taxes only go up from here" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"We're paying a 21% rate on the Apple gains. We don't mind."
at the 2024 Berkshire meeting, he explains why he sold 115 million Apple shares.
still his #1 holding + harvest gains at 21% + taxes only go up from here" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"We've made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested."
at the 2025 Berkshire meeting, he explains why he's sitting on $300 billion in cash.
$300B cash + zero forced buys + waiting for the fat pitch" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett:
"We've made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested."
at the 2025 Berkshire meeting, he explains why he's sitting on $300 billion in cash.
$300B cash + zero forced buys + waiting for the fat pitch" - that's the setup.
Bookmark this.
The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX says the AI trade isn't about chips anymore. It's about electricity.
Elon Musk, on stage with BlackRock's Larry Fink at Davos. The insights worth keeping:
AI chip production is rising exponentially. Power capacity grows 3 to 4% a year, at most.
So by later this year the world makes more AI chips than it can plug in. Everywhere except China.
China is building 100 GW of nuclear right now. Its solar alone could run half the US grid.
The bottleneck isn't compute. It's the grid.
His fix: move the data centers off Earth. Solar in space is 5x stronger, and cooling is free at 3 Kelvin.
He says the cheapest place to run AI will be space within 2 to 3 years.
Meanwhile the cost of AI itself keeps falling month to month.
Open models trail the closed ones by about a year.
The chip names get the headlines. The power and the orbit get the returns.
The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX says the AI trade isn't about chips anymore. It's about electricity.
Elon Musk, on stage with BlackRock's Larry Fink at Davos. The insights worth keeping:
AI chip production is rising exponentially. Power capacity grows 3 to 4% a year, at most.
So by later this year the world makes more AI chips than it can plug in. Everywhere except China.
China is building 100 GW of nuclear right now. Its solar alone could run half the US grid.
The bottleneck isn't compute. It's the grid.
His fix: move the data centers off Earth. Solar in space is 5x stronger, and cooling is free at 3 Kelvin.
He says the cheapest place to run AI will be space within 2 to 3 years.
Meanwhile the cost of AI itself keeps falling month to month.
Open models trail the closed ones by about a year.
The chip names get the headlines. The power and the orbit get the returns.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs refuses to call AI a bubble. The number he uses instead: 75th percentile.
Tech multiples sit around the 75th to 80th percentile historically. High, not insane.
There will be winners and losers. No one is smart enough to pick them all.
Inside the firm he flips the framing. AI isn't cost-cutting. It's freed capacity to reinvest and grow.
His proof: 40 years ago a stock comparison took 6 hours and a library trip. Now it's seconds.
On jobs he won't say this time is different. Just faster. So the shift gets messier.
The receipt: 25 years ago Goldman had no engineers to speak of. Now 13,000.
Everyone reads AI as a cost cut. He reads it as capacity. Same tool, opposite read.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs wanted to spend $8 billion on tech this year.
He capped himself at $6 billion.
David Solomon, Chairman & CEO of Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg at Italian Tech Week.
The clip, stripped down:
He'd happily spend more on AI. He won't. Returns come first.
He says he sleeps very well. Same breath, he calls a market drawdown in the next 12 to 24 months.
Not a contradiction. Markets always run ahead of the technology. He's seen it before.
His analog: ask the same bubble question in 1998. The party ran three more years before the 2001 check.
Meanwhile the deals are real. A $1 trillion M&A quarter. Large-cap deals up 100% year over year.
What changed isn't the AI. It's the regulator saying yes again.
He's excited and braced for a drawdown at once.
That's not hedging. That's the job.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs refuses to call AI a bubble. The number he uses instead: 75th percentile.
Tech multiples sit around the 75th to 80th percentile historically. High, not insane.
There will be winners and losers. No one is smart enough to pick them all.
Inside the firm he flips the framing. AI isn't cost-cutting. It's freed capacity to reinvest and grow.
His proof: 40 years ago a stock comparison took 6 hours and a library trip. Now it's seconds.
On jobs he won't say this time is different. Just faster. So the shift gets messier.
The receipt: 25 years ago Goldman had no engineers to speak of. Now 13,000.
Everyone reads AI as a cost cut. He reads it as capacity. Same tool, opposite read.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs refuses to call AI a bubble. The number he uses instead: 75th percentile.
Tech multiples sit around the 75th to 80th percentile historically. High, not insane.
There will be winners and losers. No one is smart enough to pick them all.
Inside the firm he flips the framing. AI isn't cost-cutting. It's freed capacity to reinvest and grow.
His proof: 40 years ago a stock comparison took 6 hours and a library trip. Now it's seconds.
On jobs he won't say this time is different. Just faster. So the shift gets messier.
The receipt: 25 years ago Goldman had no engineers to speak of. Now 13,000.
Everyone reads AI as a cost cut. He reads it as capacity. Same tool, opposite read.
The CEO of JPMorgan says your kids will live to 100 and work three days a week.
Same breath: AI takes some of their jobs first.
Jamie Dimon said it in a 2023 Bloomberg interview. The clip, stripped down:
AI isn't a tool to him. It's a living, breathing thing.
It goes into every process.
Trading, hedging, research, customer service.
It replaces some jobs. He said it plainly, no spin.
The payoff he priced: longer lives, no cancer, shorter weeks.
What scares him isn't lost jobs. It's bad people using AI.
JPMorgan spends $2 billion a year building AI.
It saves roughly the same amount from it each year.
On the numbers you can actually measure, that's a break-even.
Dimon, Chairman and CEO of the largest US bank and worth around $3 billion, calls this the tip of the iceberg.
In other words: the cost is fully accounted for. The payoff isn't yet.
150,000 employees use the internal tools every week, and none of that shows up in the $2 billion.
The figure that matters isn't the savings. It's the gap between what they can count and what he says is coming.
JPMorgan spends $2 billion a year building AI.
It saves roughly the same amount from it each year.
On the numbers you can actually measure, that's a break-even.
Dimon, Chairman and CEO of the largest US bank and worth around $3 billion, calls this the tip of the iceberg.
In other words: the cost is fully accounted for. The payoff isn't yet.
150,000 employees use the internal tools every week, and none of that shows up in the $2 billion.
The figure that matters isn't the savings. It's the gap between what they can count and what he says is coming.
https://t.co/NwSdR5KHr3
The cost to start: a phone. The proven floor: $13K. The ceiling everyone's chasing: $100K.
1.4 billion watched the 2022 final one in five humans alive.
48 nations in 2026, North America hosting
and the highest-paying audience on YouTube watching football for the first time.
That last part is the whole edge RPM arbitrage.
US viewers pay the best rates, and they never cared about this sport until it landed in their country.
March 2026: YouTube became FIFA's preferred platform.
Archive unlocked, footage handed to creators, first 10 minutes of every match livestreamable.
The official content floods in. You don't fight it. You take the spillover.
The real asset isn't the clip. It's the clip that keeps paying.
One Ballon d'Or video did 4M views, went quiet, then printed another 1M and €100 the next ceremony.
Untouched.
The window closes at the first whistle.
https://t.co/E3DcQfaL68
Lose 50%, and getting back doesn't take 50%. It takes 100%.
$100 drops to $50. A +50% gain only lifts you to $75. To see $100 again, that $50 has to double.
A gain and a loss of the same size are not equal. The hole is always deeper than it looks.
Now watch what that does to a "good average."
Up 50% one year, down 50% the next. Average return: 0%. Reality: $100 → $150 → $75. You lost a quarter of your money while the "average" said you broke even.
That's volatility drag. The wilder the swings, the further your real (compounded) return falls below the advertised average.
Big green can't undo big red the math isn't symmetric.
Which is why surviving beats winning. A steady 8% buries a jumpy 12%. Dodging the −50% year is worth more than catching the +50% one.
Rule one isn't "win big." It's "don't blow up."
Every economy is a dial, not a switch.
All the way to one side: a planned (command) economy the government decides what's made, how, and for whom.
All the way to the other: laissez-faire nobody's in charge, demand and supply decide everything.
A free market builds from the bottom up: people see cassava is in demand, so they grow it; they see second-hand clothes are cheaper in Kenya, so they import and resell. Millions of small choices, no central plan.
The catch: pure markets can ignore your development goals. Pure planning can't read demand fast enough.
So almost no country lives at either extreme even the old command economies drifted toward markets.
What's left is the middle: a mixed economy. The market turns the dial daily; government steps in only where things go wrong.
A switch is one choice forever. A dial you're always adjusting. Every real economy is the dial.
Fink said the quiet part at BlackRock's earnings: long-term optimism is "dangerous."
Not because it's wrong because if something breaks, they replay the clip.
So every bank CEO defaults to caution. Doom costs the speaker nothing.
But the money runs the other way.
In his letter: $1 in the market on Jan 1, 2000 lived through a 40% crash, the dot-com bust, the GFC and COVID and still became 8x+.
His other number: ~40% of Americans don't invest at all. The 60% who did compounded.
The gap isn't luck. It's participation.
Meanwhile BlackRock pulled in $744B in twelve months.
Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism gets paid.
Fink said the quiet part at BlackRock's earnings: long-term optimism is "dangerous."
Not because it's wrong because if something breaks, they replay the clip.
So every bank CEO defaults to caution. Doom costs the speaker nothing.
But the money runs the other way.
In his letter: $1 in the market on Jan 1, 2000 lived through a 40% crash, the dot-com bust, the GFC and COVID and still became 8x+.
His other number: ~40% of Americans don't invest at all. The 60% who did compounded.
The gap isn't luck. It's participation.
Meanwhile BlackRock pulled in $744B in twelve months.
Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism gets paid.
Buffett's frame from his first meeting watching from the audience: the market is a church with a betting hall attached.
The church own businesses, let time compound.
The other room one-day options, prediction-market bets, speed.
Same screen, same tickers opposite math.
Time works for you in one, against you in the other.
His warning isn't moral.
ne-day options are "not investing, not speculating gambling."
Not an insult, a category error: the betting hall now dresses like the church.
The tell? ~$400B in cash, doing nothing, at 95.
He says only ~5 of his 60 years were "really juicy."
The edge was sitting out the other 55.
You don't have to play just because the table's open.
Buffett's frame from his first meeting watching from the audience: the market is a church with a betting hall attached.
The church own businesses, let time compound.
The other room one-day options, prediction-market bets, speed.
Same screen, same tickers opposite math.
Time works for you in one, against you in the other.
His warning isn't moral.
ne-day options are "not investing, not speculating gambling."
Not an insult, a category error: the betting hall now dresses like the church.
The tell? ~$400B in cash, doing nothing, at 95.
He says only ~5 of his 60 years were "really juicy."
The edge was sitting out the other 55.
You don't have to play just because the table's open.
After 60 years, Buffett's last move as CEO was the hardest trade he ever made: allocating himself out of the job.
He handed Berkshire to Greg Abel on Jan 1, kept the chairman seat, and told shareholders "everything will be the same."
Six decades of ~19.9%/yr vs the S&P's 10.4% then years spent making the handoff boring on purpose.
Most founders confuse being indispensable with being valuable. The exit was the masterclass.
After 60 years, Buffett's last move as CEO was the hardest trade he ever made: allocating himself out of the job.
He handed Berkshire to Greg Abel on Jan 1, kept the chairman seat, and told shareholders "everything will be the same."
Six decades of ~19.9%/yr vs the S&P's 10.4% then years spent making the handoff boring on purpose.
Most founders confuse being indispensable with being valuable. The exit was the masterclass.
Buffett prices assets for a living. His advice to the young is about the ones with no price.
Communication (+50% to your worth). Your one mind and body. Who you stand next to.
And the only real measure of rich: at 70, the people you want to love you do.
No ticker. Can't be sold. Never goes on sale. Spend there.
Buffett prices assets for a living. His advice to the young is about the ones with no price.
Communication (+50% to your worth). Your one mind and body. Who you stand next to.
And the only real measure of rich: at 70, the people you want to love you do.
No ticker. Can't be sold. Never goes on sale. Spend there.
https://t.co/NwSdR5KHr3
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