Juni

Pre-rich degen

[OSF @osf_rekt]

these are the top coins by market cap on robinhood chain at the moment.

i think these could be a lot higher in a few weeks, and it will be one of those where it will seem so obvious in hindsight where everyone will be kicking themselves

[Juni @0xJuni_]

Yes, and lmao this is very interesting. Will the stocks volume tank alongside the memes or not?

The first test will be what happened once runners like Cashcat really die. But the other side is that the utility plays on the chain might get attention.

I wrote about this: https://t.co/DamFenM87P

[RektProof. @RektProof]

Alot of noise with hindsight charts of what price will do
but none of it is practical if you don't know how to trade it.

Here is a quick thread for certain levels or things you want to look for; attached my own HTF chart

Supply above/Liquidity below

$BTC

[Cred @CryptoCred]

If you trade trend, you'll get a bunch of false starts

If you trade momentum, you'll often buy the top/sell the bottom

If you trade mean reversion, you'll periodically get carried out by an outsized move

And so on for basically every trading system

This is the cost of doing business that's embedded into every market effect you're monetising

Your job is to understand it and manage it

If you try to avoid it entirely you simply won't get paid

There's no perfect system, it's all about managing trade-offs

Go take a look at your setups/playbook or wherever your trading system lives and map its assumptions and failure cases

The stuff you wanna avoid:

1. Mutating your system because the risk feels uncomfy so you get the worst of both worlds e.g. not holding for long trends/outsized moves but still eating the false starts when you're wrong (all the downside, no balls for the upside)

2. Not knowing what the trade-offs are and sizing like a dickhead so when you're wrong it wipes out all your gains e.g. penny collecting on mean reversion with increasing size and then getting fully wiped on the outsized move

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

$BTC: Report of the Century:

Today I am making one of the biggest announcements since I sold the top in September 2025. I am taking profit on every single crypto short. The Bitcoin short built between $115,000 and $125,000 is closed now with a gigantic gain. The $80,500 short, built between $79,000 and $82,000, is closed with another massive profit. The 100+ altcoin shorts I opened over the last several months are also closed, locking in another enormous win on top. The time of drinking tea is over. Congratulations to everyone who ignored the noise, trusted the framework and followed me from September 2025 until today.

Buying Bitcoin Spot:

For the first time since September 2025, I am buying Bitcoin spot again. Today, I entered at $64,000 for the absolute long term. For the first time since 9 Months I am buying Bitcoin for the long term! It is the beginning of a structured accumulation strategy, and I will execute it with the same discipline that allowed me to sell the top.

The Accumulation Strategy

Everyone who followed my strategy at $115,000–$125,000 remembers exactly how it worked. Every day Bitcoin traded inside that zone, I sold 10% of my spot position and added shorts. I did not care whether BTC was at $116,000, $120,000 or $124,000. Now I am doing the exact same thing in reverse. Every day Bitcoin remains between $54,000 and $64,000, I will buy 5% of my allocated capital in spot Bitcoin. Not 10% this time, but 5%, because I want to spread the accumulation across a wider period! If Bitcoin stays at $62,000, I buy. If it falls to $58,000, I buy. If it drops to $56,000, I buy. If it wicks into $54,000, I become more aggressive. If it returns to $64,000, I still buy. As long as Bitcoin remains inside this zone of 54-64k I am buying every day with 5% of my entire capital limited to 20 days.

The Technical Zone and Sentiment Shift

The legendary weekly MA200 sits in this region and is now being tested from below. Bitcoin already reached the lower section of this area last week. The top of the 2024 consolidation box also aligns with it. More importantly, sentiment has completely flipped. And I need to say, there are more bears, much more bears than bulls outside, and I dislike being one of many. The same people who were screaming for $150,000 at the top are now desperately waiting for $40,000. X is flooded with targets of $50,000, $45,000, $42,000 and $38,000. Retail is once again standing on one side of the boat, convinced the market owes them the perfect entry.

Front-Running the Herd

Since I announced the 50-40k region as my deeper bear-market target, most of crypto X has copied the same narrative. They copied everything, The market is not blind. The market knows retail is sitting in cash waiting below $50,000. They know people are terrified to buy at $64,000 because they have convinced themselves they will receive Bitcoin at $40,000. I am not going to stand behind the herd and beg the market for the same price as everyone else. I am front-running them. And the next that is following is also going to increase the price and so on, and the chain will be continued and those who are waiting for lower can stay there waiting forever.

Just because the four-year cycle worked at the top does not mean it will work at the bottom. Right now, everyone is waiting for September or October as if the market has already programmed the bottom into the calendar. Do you understand how insane that is? Ask anyone when they plan to buy and they will tell you September or October. Ask them why and they will repeat the same answer: because of the four-year cycle. That is the 1+1 herd behavior. What if the real cycle is not exactly four years? What if it is three years and nine or ten months? What if the market bottoms before the date the entire crowd is waiting for? Bulls are waiting, bears are waiting, and everyone is using the same indicator to justify the same timing. That alone shold cause panic to all waiting for the 4 years cycle to happen. Markets do not reward the masses for memorizing a calendar. I am betting against the four-year-cycle bottom. It is not happening. The bottom comes earlier.

The Structural Shift Around Bitcoin

The deeper reason for the change is not technical. It is structural. The environment around Bitcoin is shifting at a speed most people still do not understand. Regulatory clarity, tokenization infrastructure and institutional adoption are all moving forward at the same time, and the legal framework being built right now has the potential to unlock trillions of dollars of institutional capital that has been sitting on the sidelines or parked in the stock market waiting for certainty. Combine that with Coinbase's institutional buildout and BlackRock's fully operational ETF ecosystem, and we are no longer looking at the same Bitcoin market that existed six months ago. The CLARITY Act could go through on August 10 depending on the Senate, and that is not a small event. There is a reason the entire world is now racing to regulate crypto with full speed.

BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and the New York Stock Exchange are already inside the DTCC live tokenization pilot. Microsoft shares, SPY, QQQ and US Treasuries are being tested as tokenized securities right now, with the official launch planned for October. Stocks, ETFs and Treasuries are moving on-chain, and the largest institutions in the world are adopting blockchain rails while retail is still debating whether the bear market is over. On top of that, Citadel just invested $400 million directly into https://t.co/R0aEy9w9Rx at a $20 billion valuation. The biggest players are deploying capital now, at scale, before the crowd understands what is happening. The infrastructure is being built directly in front of everyone, and I move my capital when the biggest capital in the world starts moving, not after

In Regards of the Stock Market Crash:

I am keeping every single SP500 short open. Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same trade, and they are not at the same point in their cycle. The crypto bear market began in October 2025 and continued for nine months while the stock market refused to fall. Bitcoin dropped 52% from 125k to 60k. In the same window the SP500 made new all-time highs. Crypto has already been repriced while stocks remain over valued. Therefore there is a very high probability that the Crypto Market will benefit from a Stock Market crash, as profits will move from over valued assets into under valued assets, and in times of Tokenization Hype, Stablecoin talk and the Clarity Act, these funds will very likely move into the Crypto Market.

One More Thing: I called 40-50k as the target and I was clear about it, I called 60k when Bitcoin was at 120k, and at 60k I said 40-50k is coming, But when the entire crowd on X starts waiting for the exact same level, the market almost never delivers it. Six months ago nobody was calling for sub-50k. Today every single account is. That is exactly when the target gets taken off the table. I now believe we will not see 40-50k at all this cycle. The setup that would have delivered that level is dissolving in front of the tokenization revolution, the CLARITY Act, and the biggest capital in the world moving in. Changing my view when the facts change is what a good trader should do. It is exactly why I made massive profits shorting from 120k, and it is why I am accumulating now while others are still waiting for a bottom that will not come the way they want it.

That is why I am buying now. The crowd has become aggressively bearish and the conditions required for a much deeper collapse are beginning to weaken in front of the regulatory and tokenization revolution. I would rather begin building a position before the crowd understands the shift than chase Bitcoin after confirmation at much higher prices. Buy earlier before the mass starts to understand.

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that was also token efficient unlike Kimi K3 which is 50-70% more expensive to run than GPT 5.6 per Artificial Analysis.

Rationale:

A world where there are only 2-3 dominant frontier labs with 90% inference margins is net negative for every other layer while being awesome for those 2-3 labs. Those labs would become monopsonies for power, data centers, semiconductors and hyperscalers and would obviously vertically integrate over time into all those layers while also completely subsuming the application/software layers. 

Anything that lowers margins and increases competition at the model layer is good for every other AI layer: power, semiconductors, hyperscalers, neoclouds and yes even software.

This is why Jensen is so supportive of open-source. An open-source model requires the *exact* same amount of compute to run as a closed frontier model of similar size and architecture. Kimi K3 is roughly the same price as GPT 5.6 Terra on a per token basis, which actually suggests that it is less computationally efficient as I am sure that GPT 5.6 is priced to a higher margin than K3. And given that K3 is a token wastrel, i.e. token inefficient, it is significantly more expensive per task than GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.5, which are much more token efficient. Cost per token and token efficiency (i.e. intelligence density per token) are the drivers of intelligence per unit of cost. The winning AI companies will be those that offer the most intelligence per $ over time.

Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at every part of the infrastructure layer and is a godsend for software. This can happen either through open-source models like K3 at the frontier *or* having a vertically integrated model company like Meta, SpaceX or Google at the frontier. Both outcomes result in a lower margin % at the model layer as vertically integrated model companies don’t really care where the margin $ come from. This is why it was so painful for OpenAI and Anthropic when Google was right there with them from a model competitiveness perspective and why Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 were just as important as Kimi K3.

The reason Kimi K3 is only *potentially* negative for Anthropic and OpenAI is 1) the @ericvishria point that the Claude and ChatGPT products and harnesses may be more important than their models today and 2) the hypothesis that they have much more advanced model checkpoints internally that are already being used for RSI. In the latter scenario, reaching RSI even a few months ahead of other labs might be enough to cement a permanent lead.

Time will tell on both points. And likely fairly quickly.

Caveat would be that since Kimi K3 is not token efficient and thereby actually more expensive than ChatGPT 5.6, we may need to see a more token efficient open-source model at the frontier or see Grok 5/Composer 4/Muse 2 at multiple points on the Pareto frontier for this potential risk to Anthropic and OpenAI to play out. And I am sure they will both vertically integrate as quickly as possible while continuing the product/harness strength they have shown over the last 8 months.

[Silentum 🦁 @xKhalifan]

BRAINMAXXING

You’re not dumb. Accept your intelligence. Read books out loud. Study mathematics. Do something new. Learn a new language. Leave your comfort zone. Write your thoughts. Use your non-dominant hand. Juggle. Release stress. Exhale deeply. Sleep without an alarm. Wake up with the sun. Nourish your body. Take care of your mind.

The reason why you may experience brain fog is because of your daily routines that slow your cognitive abilities.

The world offers you solutions, but in reality - they are just temporary fixes for deeper problems.

Only you can save yourself.

Manage your thoughts. Control the outcome.

[Juni @0xJuni_]

@thedefivillain Regular reader here.

Doing the god’s work Victor Thanks 🙏🏻🙏🏻

[Juni @0xJuni_]

base:0xed664536023d8e4b1640c394777d34abaff1df8f and solana:Tqj8yFmagrg7oorpQkVGYR52r96RFTamvWfth9bpump doing all the work in my port lmao.

Been staring at the aerodrome-finance:native and solana:Grass7B4RdKfBCjTKgSqnXkqjwiGvQyFbuSCUJr3XXjs chart since a few weeks ago but didn’t enter 😭

Onto the next.

[Juni @0xJuni_]

@_Utdbaki Chill lmao

[Juni @0xJuni_]

@0xNairolf Only two: Hyperliquid and Solana.

[KoolKrypto @koolkrypto223]

The common thread between all my highest conviction spot holds

$HYPE: no dual token/equity structure (same can be said for most HyperEVM tokens like $KNTQ, $HPL, $NEST etc)
$AERO: no dual token/equity structure
$DRV: no dual token/equity structure
$LIT: no dual token/equity structure

I virtually refuse to invest into anything with a dual token/equity structure. I don't need all value to flow directly to token buybacks, but I'm not willfully sitting in the value accrual cuck chair watching privileged equity holders get rich as my token gets diluted and emitted to 0.

I don't care how good of intentions a team claims to have, you can't serve two masters, and tokenholders will ALWAYS get the short end of the stick.

[ika @ika_xbt]

Agree with this take

- predictions markets with @pumpcade
- inference markets with @cpx_token & https://t.co/ulf8E772Qd
- RWA with @sunrise & @Backpack
- TCG with @Collector_Crypt & @collectdotrip
- perps with idk who (@bulktrade & @PhoenixTrade?)

what else

[Max @MaxTorchbearer]

RECOVER FASTER THAN EVERYONE

Lose the day. Come back at night. Miss the gym. Go tomorrow. Waste a week. Win the next one. Get embarrassed. Stay visible. Get rejected. Try again. Fall behind. Move anyway. Stop turning every mistake into a new identity. Stop making failure mean more than it does. Stop disappearing every time life proves you’re still human. The men who win aren’t perfect. They just don’t stay gone.

The cheat code is simple.

Become impossible to keep down.

[CooperBaggs 💰🍞 @edgaralandough]

My favorite line from Atomic Habits has been living in my head rent-free:

“It doesn’t make sense to continue wanting something if you’re not willing to do what it takes to get it. If you don’t want to live the lifestyle, then release yourself from the desire. To crave the result but not the process is to guarantee disappointment.”

[Juni @0xJuni_]

@0xNairolf It’s because these devs are greedy ass mfs

[Grayscale @Grayscale]

Top 15 onchain apps by protocol revenue: $HYPE, $PUMP, $CAKE, $SKY, $JUP, $AAVE, $AERO, $WLFI, $LDO, $MET, $ETHFI, $LIT, $CARDS, $UNI, $RAY

Some of the top onchain apps by revenue have real cash flows, low overhead, and single-digit multiples, and with the CLARITY Act potentially weeks away, we believe investors are facing an attractive entry point today.

Read more from @LowBeta's latest Stack article here: https://t.co/34NkjZuPJF

[Juni @0xJuni_]

@keluhkesacrypto Because the Rupiah chart looks like this wkwkkw

[Juni @0xJuni_]

Dead cat's bounce in play $BBCA

[Juni @0xJuni_]

@Flowslikeosmo The biggest question: how do we invest in it. If apps like FOMO is already successful, why would they release a token? They already generate revenues from fees etc.

I can't name any successful tokens from consumer apps off the top of my head that survived until today.