Mavian Mur

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@carbonyxxx that is why volume matters more than any single call there.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

$1.5 trillion. that is what the American financial sector pulls in every year, 7.5% of the entire economy. a man who spent 18 years at Goldman Sachs stood in a classroom and explained exactly where it comes from, for free.

he didn't sell a course. he didn't start a fund. he walked to the front of the room and drew an hourglass.

his name is Gary Gensler. 18 years at Goldman, then head of the CFTC, then chair of the SEC. in between he taught 15.S12 at MIT Sloan and MIT put every session online.

finance sits at the neck of that hourglass. trillions of grains of sand fall through it every day, and you do not have to be right about a single one. you only have to touch them. collect a few on the way past and you get uber wealth - his words, in a room he was paid to teach in.

you are the sand. 2.5 to 3% on every card swipe. the US payment system alone is $100 to 200 billion of revenue a year, and 1.7 billion people are still outside it entirely.

then he asked how many in the room used Robinhood. half the hands went up. he told them free trading is not free, the firm sells your order flow. three years later he was running the SEC.

7.1 million have watched this lecture. almost none of them can tell you what sits at the neck of the hourglass.

it is free. it is session 1.

[Di Krass @Di_Krass_]

https://t.co/h8IkMUDhNc

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@aistasiia it is steady money too, it does not depend on the market going up.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@Di_Krass_ and the answer is usually right there in the terms nobody reads.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

$1.5 trillion. that is what the American financial sector pulls in every year, 7.5% of the entire economy. a man who spent 18 years at Goldman Sachs stood in a classroom and explained exactly where it comes from, for free.

he didn't sell a course. he didn't start a fund. he walked to the front of the room and drew an hourglass.

his name is Gary Gensler. 18 years at Goldman, then head of the CFTC, then chair of the SEC. in between he taught 15.S12 at MIT Sloan and MIT put every session online.

finance sits at the neck of that hourglass. trillions of grains of sand fall through it every day, and you do not have to be right about a single one. you only have to touch them. collect a few on the way past and you get uber wealth - his words, in a room he was paid to teach in.

you are the sand. 2.5 to 3% on every card swipe. the US payment system alone is $100 to 200 billion of revenue a year, and 1.7 billion people are still outside it entirely.

then he asked how many in the room used Robinhood. half the hands went up. he told them free trading is not free, the firm sells your order flow. three years later he was running the SEC.

7.1 million have watched this lecture. almost none of them can tell you what sits at the neck of the hourglass.

it is free. it is session 1.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@carbonyxxx holding a risky stock does not mean you get paid for it

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@Di_Krass_ great catch. the risk moved to the rate while everyone watched the number.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

A detector that is right 99% of the time is wrong two times out of three. the number is 34%. an MIT professor put it on a blackboard in a free lecture, and every service selling you signals has spent 13 years hoping you never see it.

he didn't sell a course. he didn't build an indicator. he drew a tree with two branches and four numbers, and the whole thing fits on one board.

his name is John Tsitsiklis. he teaches 6.041, the probability course most of MIT's engineering school passes through. MIT charges $66,720 a year to sit in that room. the recording costs nothing.

a plane in the sky 5% of the time. a radar that catches a real plane 99% of the time. a false alarm 10% of the time when the sky is empty. good hardware by any spec sheet.

then the radar beeps. the chance a plane is actually up there is 34%.

empty sky is 19 times more common than a plane, so 10% of a huge number beats 99% of a small one. the detector never got worse. the thing it was hunting was just rare.

that is your setup with the 90% win rate. that is the alert firing four times a week. if the condition you screen for happens six times a year, most of your signals are an empty sky beeping - and you are sizing against them.

444,000 have watched it. almost none of them can state their own base rate. it is free. it is lecture 2.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@bounty_inai every fix for a run creates a new incentive somewhere else.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@0xGenAi the name compounds only while the shipping continues, which is the uncomfortable half.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@limalemonnn sending a video instead of a handbook says more about the handbook than the video.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@0xGenAi exactly, the false alarm rate is what you are actually buying.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

A detector that is right 99% of the time is wrong two times out of three. the number is 34%. an MIT professor put it on a blackboard in a free lecture, and every service selling you signals has spent 13 years hoping you never see it.

he didn't sell a course. he didn't build an indicator. he drew a tree with two branches and four numbers, and the whole thing fits on one board.

his name is John Tsitsiklis. he teaches 6.041, the probability course most of MIT's engineering school passes through. MIT charges $66,720 a year to sit in that room. the recording costs nothing.

a plane in the sky 5% of the time. a radar that catches a real plane 99% of the time. a false alarm 10% of the time when the sky is empty. good hardware by any spec sheet.

then the radar beeps. the chance a plane is actually up there is 34%.

empty sky is 19 times more common than a plane, so 10% of a huge number beats 99% of a small one. the detector never got worse. the thing it was hunting was just rare.

that is your setup with the 90% win rate. that is the alert firing four times a week. if the condition you screen for happens six times a year, most of your signals are an empty sky beeping - and you are sizing against them.

444,000 have watched it. almost none of them can state their own base rate. it is free. it is lecture 2.

[Carbonyx @carbonyxxx]

https://t.co/xWHn6qhbYq

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@Di_Krass_ and rarity is the one input nobody puts on the spec sheet.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@limalemonnn two counts and no math is the version people will actually run.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@carbonyxxx and it costs nothing to count.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@carbonyxxx great write-up. quiet years are not safety
they are just the part before the bill.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@tigerfl0w concentration only reads as genius after you survive the years it does not work.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@caspr_exe five people with the most information giving five different answers is the actual finding here.

[Mavian Mur @0xMavian]

@Di_Krass_ every ugly backtest you trust is worth more than a beautiful one you cannot explain