One thing I find striking in the discourse between AI 2040 and its detractors is that the two seem to be locked in to totally incompatible worldviews of how fast and how much of a big deal AI progress is:
* In AI 2040, every scenario sees superintelligence of some kind emerging by 2040, unless a herculean effort is made to completely stop it
* Detractors say things like "AI 2040 is naive about human coordination ability and a threat to freedom", but don't seem to see any naivety in assuming that the ASI transition will just go well by default, don't seem to see ASI itself as a massive power concentrator risk, and don't seem to feel fear of humanity's "hard power" dropping to zero if ASIs can do literally every task better than we can. This stance makes total sense in a "AI is normal technology" world, zero sense in a world where superintelligence is possible by 2030 and almost guaranteed by 2040
I think my beliefs are:
- If I was confident that (present-day-style) AI is normal technology, I would be in the detractor camp
- If I was confident that superintelligence is coming in 2030 by default, I would be closer to the AI 2040 camp - it's naive, but every other option is naive squared?
But my problem is that I feel great uncertainty and have no idea which of the two worlds (or some other third thing) we're living in?
Hence why I continue to be open-minded about slowdowns/pauses, but also I feel very uncomfortable with the "open source bad, the good outcome is the one where our guys have controlling global dominance" push coming from some major AI companies and intellectuals - in a "normal" world that's the sort of thing that triggers every political alarm bell at the same time.
A big reason why I have been advocating and trying my best to support the d/acc platform (rapid up-skilling in formal verification, cryptography, secure and open hardware, pandemic resistance and other defensive biotech, food and basic resource security, public epistemics, non-power-concentrating versions of physical security) is that these things are clearly worth doing in both worlds.
The 2040 plan is already much more open source friendly (even mandating it! yay). It also includes "mutually assured compute destruction" ideas which (if they work) effectively give one of 2-5 actors the ability to trigger a global compute winter - as opposed to giving 1-5 actors the ability to selectively disenfranchise people they consider baddies while exempting themselves. This is also a big improvement. So I can see the earnest attempts to improve along the dimensions detractors criticize on ("does this concentrate power in big AI labs and superpower governments?"), and I appreciate this. I think many people don't appreciate enough the differences between different "kinds" of pause buttons, and how some concentrate power far more than others. Probably we can think harder and improve even more here.
But on the "slowdown/pause or not" topic, there isn't a magic "escape the tradeoff" button.
The Hansonian in me says: the winning deal is a deal which, from the perspective of both sides' present-day beliefs and knowledge, both sides would accept, though for different reasons. If the crux is AI progress speed, then identify a set of pre-agreed triggers for "okay, serious shit is happening" [super-pandemics? >25% unemployment? something involving slaughterbots?], and pre-agree that we become much more open-minded to the slowdown or pause thing if enough triggers come to pass within some timeframe. 2040 detractors (who clearly implicitly think that we'll see amazing speedup of progress from AI but think that what I call the "serious shit" category is overhyped) will accept expecting that the triggers don't come to pass, and AI worriers will accept expecting that they will. Pre-agreeing on the specific triggers means that once the triggers either hit or don't hit, there is stronger legitimacy around the idea that one side's worldview turned out more correct and we should be more inclined toward their program.
If I were @elonmusk (or zuck, or...) I would re-tool twitter much more heavily into being a platform for helping to identify and make these kinds of grand win-win deals, so that we can bypass big-country governments and big-company CEOs and big nonprofit intellectuals and give more people a voice in the discussion. It's possibly one of the best things that social media _could_ do for humanity if it wanted to.
But again, maybe this is also naive. Actually, probably it's naive.
But currently, I see zero plans for how to deal with an ASI transition that are not naive. Perhaps humanity is stuck with a choice between naive and naive squared (or maybe even naive squared and naive cubed), so I feel inclined to cut some slack to people who are trying.
🚨 We found a High severity vulnerability caused by inconsistent Spot/TWAP pricing.
The function validates the TWAP for deviation, but values positions using the current spot price.
The accountant derives each position's token composition from pool.getCurrentTick(), while the only oracle deviation check is performed against pool.getTWAP().
Because the manipulated value (spot) is never validated, an attacker can temporarily move the pool price immediately before deposit() or withdrawal(). The stale TWAP still passes the StaleOraclePrice check.
Impact:
- Incorrect shares minted to depositors.
- Incorrect assets paid to withdrawers.
توافق با جمهوری اسلامی و به رسمیت شناختن رژیم، فقط یک معنی میده:
انت��ام رومیان و اعراب مسلمان از ایرانیان است.
به همین دلیل ترامپ از شاهزاده پهلوی حمایت نمیکند.
بی دلیل نیست که ایلان ماسک بعد از پیروزی ترامپ در ریاست جمهوری ایالات متحده، کتاب Anabasis رو میخوند!
بچرخ تا بچرخیم
@realDonaldTrump
Are the Iranian people a party to the agreement with IRGC?
Over 40,000 Iranians did not die so the Islamic Republic could tighten its grip on the country.
If this agreement serves to prolong the life of this regime, then don’t expect us to stand by quietly.1/2
@realDonaldTrump@elonmusk@tim_cook@netanyahu
As an Iranian cyber security person and tech entrepreneur, we asking you not to reach ANY agreement with the Islamic Republic under any circumstances in your negotiations.
1/3
اینترنت رو به مدت ۵ ماه قطع کردید بی ناموسا تا جنایت هایی که بر سر ملت مظلوم ایران تو این مدت آوردید به بیرون درز نکنه!؟
غافل از اینکه یکی این��است که پلن میچینه که تک تکتون رو نفله کنه.
قسم میخورم تا ابد جوری زجرتون بدم تا زجه بزنید.
از کوچک تا درشتتون! منتظرم باشید.
ویدیویی که به تازگی از اعتراضات دیماه ۱۴۰۴ به دست ایراناینترنشنال رسیده، پیکر رهاشده یک جاویدنام را در یکی از خیابانهای شهرک ولیعصر تهران نشان میدهد.
Nobody in crypto is talking about the $1 billion Bitcoin operation that gets wiped out if the bombs fall.
Iran mines Bitcoin at $1,320 per coin on subsidized electricity and sells it at $68,000. A 50x gross margin. Not a hedge fund return. Not a venture multiple. Fifty times on power costs alone, running on electricity priced at half a cent per kilowatt hour while Iranian civilians suffer rolling blackouts because 700,000 mining rigs are draining 2,000 megawatts from a collapsing grid every single day.
95 percent of those rigs are illegal. The IRGC runs the largest operations, exempt from electricity bills, consuming power from facilities that simultaneously cause blackouts in hospitals and homes. The regime legalized mining in 2019 specifically to convert sanctioned energy into unsanctioned hard currency. Bitcoin is not a side hustle for Iran. Bitcoin is the single most effective sanctions evasion tool in the regime’s arsenal. Every block mined on subsidized Iranian electricity is a direct conversion of state-subsidized energy into dollars that no SWIFT ban can touch.
Iran accounts for 2 to 5 percent of global Bitcoin hashrate. That means roughly 1 in every 25 blocks confirmed on the Bitcoin network is being validated by machines that fund the IRGC, the same organization massing troops at the Iraqi border, operating the missile batteries the F-22s were sent to suppress, and running the nuclear facilities the B-2s are programmed to destroy.
Now connect this to the strike.
Iran’s power grid is already failing. The mining operations consume the equivalent of a mid-sized city’s electricity demand. A military campaign targeting critical infrastructure, command nodes, radar installations, and military communications would cascade through the same grid that powers the mining farms. You do not need to target Bitcoin mining specifically. You just need to hit the grid that sustains it.
A 7-to-10 day air campaign collapses Iranian electricity generation by an estimated 30 to 50 percent. That does not reduce mining by 30 to 50 percent. It eliminates it entirely, because mining rigs require continuous power and even brief outages destroy active operations. The global Bitcoin hashrate drops 2 to 5 percent overnight. Difficulty adjusts downward. Block times extend. Transaction fees spike. And $1 billion in annual Iranian crypto revenue, the hard currency pipeline that no sanction could close, goes dark in the same week the centrifuges stop spinning.
The market is pricing Iran risk into oil.
Nobody is pricing it into Bitcoin.
Every hash produced in Iran today is a countdown timer. When the grid goes, the hashrate goes with it. And the IRGC’s last unsanctionable revenue stream dies alongside the enrichment program it was funding.
دختر بچه ۱۶ ساله رو میخوان اعدام کنن.
تا میتونید صدای این دختر باشید...
The Islamic regime is going to execute this kid!
She's only 16 years old.
#دیا��ا_طاهرآبادی
#DianaTaherabadi
پینوشت یک:
اگر یک گروه یا فرد تصمیم بگیره قانون اساسی کشور رو به تنهایی بنویسه و تمام احزاب و جناح ها رو حذف کنه و افراد و احزاب مجبور باشن که از اون قانون اساسی پیروی کنند، این دقیقا مصداق بارز «دیکتاتوری» هست.
قانون اساسی کشور باید با نظر جمع نوشته بشه نه فرد!
@Fakhravar اصل ششم «پیش نویس قانون اساسی» که امیرعباس فخرآور منتشر کرده دقیقا مصداق بارز –دیکتاتوری– و ایجاد تمرکز در نهاد دادگستری (به عربی: قوه قضاییه) هست.
انتصاب یک نفر در راَس یک نهاد به مدت ۱۲ سال؟ مگه جمهوری اسلامیه؟
قضاوت با خودتون. 🤷♂️
متن پیش نویس اصل ۶، ماده ۲: 👇
1/5
نظارت بر حسن اجرای قوانین، نظارت بر اقدامات دولت و کنگره قانونگذار��ن، انتخاب دادستان کل کشور و معرفی وی به وکیل جمهور و سنا جهت کسب رای اعتماد از وظایف ریاست رکن دادگستری می باشد
5/5
@Fakhravar اصل ششم «پیش نویس قانون اساسی» که امیرعباس فخرآور منتشر کرده دقیقا مصداق بارز –دیکتاتوری– و ایجاد تمرکز در نهاد دادگستری (به عربی: قوه قضاییه) هست.
انتصاب یک نفر در راَس یک نهاد به مدت ۱۲ سال؟ مگه جمهوری اسلامیه؟
قضاوت با خودتون. 🤷♂️
متن پیش نویس اصل ۶، ماده ۲: 👇
1/5
عزل ونصب روسای دادگستریهای کشور و قضات مطابق با قوانین موضوعه. اگر به هر دلیلی (بیماری، استعفا، فوت و یا برکناری از سمت) ریاست رکن دادگستری امکان ادامه کار را نداشته باشد، انتخابات برای تعیین رییس رکن قضایی با رای مستقیم مردم برگزار خواهد شد.
4/5
@kooshiar@MarkPocan It seems that some congressman /congresswoman have a vested interest in Mullahs regime remaining in power, despite the ongoing executions of thousands of Iranians, including 16- to 20-year-olds teenagers.