strube.hl

Crypto research and writing - Investment Analyst @flowtrackfund

[Avi @AviFelman]

I’ve been in the “industry” since I graduated college in 2017. I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013. I am the last person who wants to rail on Bitcoin.

Unfortunately, I owe it to myself and to my followers to just be realistic about the future. I often get it wrong, but I try my best to think things through..

The base premise is the risk reward for it has radically changed. Anyone saying that it hasn’t is likely lying to you, or has an ulterior motive and is just trying to sell you something.

When an asset grows to a multitrillion valuation, gets co-opted and integrated into the banking system, and also is mostly driven by a single name (Saylor) you should probably start to question whether it offers you the same risk adjusted returns as it did in the past.

Questioning your priors is a key part of being an investor.

When you have the world genuinely developing technologies that are going to radically reshape our future, perhaps Bitcoin is not the best place to park all of your capital.

In 2021 Bitcoin was an incredible investment because it was the escape valve for excess liquidity. The Fed was acting in a way that was irresponsible.

Today we don’t have the same capital flows driving attention to Bitcoin. That doesn’t preclude it from going up 100%, but when something like Intel triples in a month — are you really gonna sit there and say oh wow Bitcoin is still the best investment ever I should be holding the exact same amount as I held in 2021?

Let’s please be realistic here. Let’s talk genuinely instead of coping.

Again, I’ve been in this industry for my entire life. I’ve never known anything different. All of my biases should actually point me to wanting Bitcoin to continue to be the best investment ever. Unfortunately, it’s just not.

[MP @MoneyPrinter0x]

dont overthink the kingmaker trade

there is only one House of All Finance.

Hyperliquid.

$HYPE

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

Meanwhile, the “alt season” à la 2017 and 2021 crypto bull markets is happening in equities as we speak.

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

The term “alt season” seems to have lost all meaning on CT. People continue calling for it when 99.8% of tokens are down only.

HYPE is leading risk-adjusted momentum by a fairly wide margin here. I think it’s much more likely that most liquidity still available in crypto goes to pumping HYPE.

Maybe a small handful of coins to follow, but by no means “alt szn” in the historical sense.

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

since 2021 chatgpt went from 0 to 900M MAUs, there is nothing remotely comparable to that kind of activity occurring on crypto native rails

the trade was rotate btc into gold as saylor ponzi institutionalized it and gold broke out of 10 year range

and rotate eth into nvda/ai

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not sure how crypto will become fastest horse again when ai is being funded by infinite $$$ from the most profitable companies in the world that are being turbobid by every person with a job while being sponsored by governments, and in contrast crypto is comprised of the unemployed gambling against each other on coins backed by air, the ai tech cos are legit only constrained atm by lack of physical hardware & not enough energy from grids rather than dollars, and demand on retail + enterprise side has not shown any signs of slowing down as models continue improving and getting cheaper to use

i do believe crypto will revolutionize finance with perps, stablecoins, and prediction markets - we are a 0 to 1 improvement on many archaic systems on how to speculate on assets and how to transmit value globally, but it is not clear whether that will be captured by existing majors

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what could make crypto outperform again?

• hyperliquid + tradexyz going viral with builder codes through multiple frontend venues as the best place to speculate with leverage on stocks, perps are a better product than options & will be more enticing for retail as they become more popular, need breakout attention outside of just CT bubble to catalyze this happening

• crypto social app that does not market itself as a "crypto" app, with emphasis on user-focused identities provable w/ zk as a counterbalance to overwhelming amount of ai content on social media, gate app with $$$ tiers for certain unlockables, enable some sort of speculation prediction market features that allow people to bet on real life events with their friends, some sort of focus on IRL activity that differentiates itself from other socials with gamification aspect

• whoever solves stablecoins for consumer stores seems like a big winner also

• saylor somehow not face of bitcoin anymore, quantum issues solved with some dev organization, btc finds rightful place much closer to gold's market cap

i honestly have no idea

hype does seem like an easy hold

but generally it seems much lower risk with more upside to simply sit in AMZN/GOOG/AAPL & gamble on lowcap ai shitcos

feels like we need to go way lower to washout people who still are overconfident that we will just come back for no apparent reason

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

Another certified banger. Must read.

[kel. @kelxyz_]

https://t.co/UTtftKGUE7

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

https://t.co/O9QZ6yVSi5

Again, here is a model you can tweak to your specific assumptions.

If you found this useful, I would appreciate a RT.

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

Inspired by @0xKmafia, here is my take on the current best guess for HYPE "S3" 👇

With the perpDEX landscape heating up and HL team unlocks now out of the way, competitive positioning seems imperative heading into 2026.

You can check out the model yourself here (https://t.co/4dG7pf28Rw)

If you care to hear more about assumptions, continue reading below (short 🧵)

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

Anyway, thanks for coming to my Ted talk. These are just the best assumptions I could come up with given the way the HL team has behaved in the past, and their business incentives.

Let me know what you think.

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

Crypto has never topped without an upswing in the business cycle and expansion of central bank liquidity. Betting on the "4 year cycle" replaying, but only using the time component of that theory is confusing.

thank you for your attention to this matter

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

Crypto cycles have basically exclusively peaked with maximally favorable macro and liquidity conditions (obviously low sample size). "Altseason" is likely not coming without those conditions. But a drawn out bear seems unlikely as well.

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

Compare those 2017 and 2021 cycles to this one. Conditions have been neutral at best. There are reasons to believe that might change in 2026. Putting my neck out there and saying calling "cycle" top here will look silly in 6-12 months.

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

@fejau_inc do you subscribe to the idea that the business cycle dictates major inflection points for crypto (cycle bottoms/tops), or do you think its more liquidity-driven?

[strube.hl @0xStrube]

@blknoiz06 Root Beer flavor is goated